Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2013

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

18.10 – 20.10.2013

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	29:07.155	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.936	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+12.344	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+12.460	13
5	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+12.513	11
6	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+28.263	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+32.953	9
8	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+35.062	8
9	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+35.104	7
10	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+37.426	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+46.099	5
12	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+48.149	4
13	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Ignite Pramac Racing	+49.911	3
14	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+49.998	2
15	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+58.718	1
16	Luca Scassa	ART	Cardion AB Motoracing	+58.791	0
17	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+68.105	0
18	Michael Laverty	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+87.230	0
19	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+91.093	0
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+0.000	0
21	Damian Cudlin	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+0.000	0
DNF	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	Disqualified	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Disqualified	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

106

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/19

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

6.936 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P19 to P14.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:01:28		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:16:23	Daniel Pedrosa	Position penalty	To drop 1 position
Race	16:21:50		Red flag	Marc MARQUEZ black flag
Race	16:23:37	Hiroshi Aoyama	Position penalty	To drop 1 position
Race	16:24:09		Red flag	Bryan STARING black flag

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	7	5	+2
Andrea Iannone	10	8	+2
Luca Scassa	20	18	+2
Alvaro Bautista	4	6	−2
Hector Barbera	19	20	−1
Andrea Dovizioso	9	10	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Daniel Pedrosa	5→2	+3.4
Cal Crutchlow	6→4	+2.0
Jorge Lorenzo	1→1	+1.8
Michael Laverty	18→18	−4.2
Claudio Corti	14→17	−5.8
Hiroshi Aoyama	16→20	−7.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

23.3 °C

Air

max 25.2 °C

51%

Humidity

0.1 mm

Rain

17 km/h

Wind

gusts 52 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.167	—	20	337.9
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.255	+0.088	20	335.2
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:29.831	+0.664	21	337.9
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.008	+0.841	19	326.5
5	Valentino Rossi	01:30.053	+0.886	22	342.8
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.130	+0.963	22	334.4
7	Bradley Smith	01:30.361	+1.194	22	328.6
8	Nicky Hayden	01:30.666	+1.499	20	334.7
9	Randy De Puniet	01:31.280	+2.113	22	329.8
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.295	+2.128	17	337.9
11	Andrea Iannone	01:31.295	+2.128	20	336.7
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.458	+2.291	18	324.1
13	Colin Edwards	01:31.557	+2.390	18	328.5
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.637	+2.470	19	312.6
15	Hector Barbera	01:31.766	+2.599	18	322.0
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.803	+2.636	24	325.3
17	Claudio Corti	01:32.300	+3.133	17	329.9
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:32.341	+3.174	18	332.9
19	Bryan Staring	01:32.741	+3.574	20	324.3
20	Stefan Bradl	01:33.165	+3.998	11	338.2
21	Luca Scassa	01:33.234	+4.067	18	324.8
22	Lukas Pesek	01:33.797	+4.630	16	314.7
23	Michael Laverty	01:33.875	+4.708	23	316.3
—	Damian Cudlin	01:35.906	+6.739	20	316.7

FP2 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:28.961	—	18	336.3
2	Alvaro Bautista	01:29.438	+0.477	19	343.9
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.478	+0.517	13	334.6
4	Valentino Rossi	01:29.537	+0.576	23	341.2
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.667	+0.706	21	334.7
6	Marc Marquez	01:29.989	+1.028	17	336.0
7	Bradley Smith	01:30.165	+1.204	23	336.2
8	Randy De Puniet	01:30.215	+1.254	23	329.7
9	Nicky Hayden	01:30.609	+1.648	22	333.9
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.754	+1.793	22	337.6
11	Andrea Iannone	01:30.792	+1.831	20	333.0
12	Colin Edwards	01:30.917	+1.956	21	330.6
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.091	+2.130	17	326.8
14	Yonny Hernandez	01:31.134	+2.173	17	335.7
15	Hector Barbera	01:31.286	+2.325	16	317.8
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.434	+2.473	20	326.7
17	Claudio Corti	01:31.451	+2.490	17	328.4
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.985	+3.024	22	326.6
19	Michael Laverty	01:32.066	+3.105	23	326.4
20	Luca Scassa	01:32.261	+3.300	21	324.2
21	Bryan Staring	01:32.290	+3.329	22	321.6
22	Lukas Pesek	01:32.943	+3.982	18	319.5
23	Damian Cudlin	01:34.969	+6.008	16	319.3
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.074	—	21	333.7
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.122	+0.048	19	342.2
3	Valentino Rossi	01:29.192	+0.118	24	340.4
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:29.192	+0.118	20	344.8
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.235	+0.161	19	337.1
6	Bradley Smith	01:29.652	+0.578	19	334.9
7	Nicky Hayden	01:29.691	+0.617	23	335.8
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.731	+0.657	22	335.4
9	Colin Edwards	01:29.827	+0.753	20	330.2
10	Randy De Puniet	01:29.971	+0.897	21	329.3
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.104	+1.030	19	328.1
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.312	+1.238	22	337.2
13	Andrea Iannone	01:30.524	+1.450	20	339.0
14	Hector Barbera	01:30.701	+1.627	23	324.2
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.750	+1.676	23	325.6
16	Claudio Corti	01:30.909	+1.835	20	328.7
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:31.152	+2.078	20	337.0
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.182	+2.108	20	323.4
19	Luca Scassa	01:31.661	+2.587	19	323.8
20	Bryan Staring	01:31.858	+2.784	19	321.6
21	Lukas Pesek	01:32.074	+3.000	15	320.3
22	Michael Laverty	01:32.314	+3.240	18	325.4
23	Damian Cudlin	01:33.324	+4.250	18	322.5
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

FP4 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:28.959	—	15	333.8
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.012	+0.053	12	334.7
3	Marc Marquez	01:29.243	+0.284	13	340.3
4	Valentino Rossi	01:29.413	+0.454	16	341.5
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.864	+0.905	17	335.0
6	Bradley Smith	01:30.016	+1.057	15	335.1
7	Nicky Hayden	01:30.063	+1.104	16	332.9
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.111	+1.152	16	342.6
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.254	+1.295	12	331.3
10	Colin Edwards	01:30.421	+1.462	15	332.8
11	Randy De Puniet	01:30.520	+1.561	16	328.8
12	Andrea Iannone	01:30.603	+1.644	14	338.4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.747	+1.788	14	337.3
14	Claudio Corti	01:30.974	+2.015	13	329.0
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:30.991	+2.032	11	326.2
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:31.349	+2.390	5	334.7
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.351	+2.392	13	324.2
18	Michael Laverty	01:31.465	+2.506	11	327.2
19	Luca Scassa	01:31.612	+2.653	13	322.6
20	Hector Barbera	01:32.089	+3.130	11	317.6
21	Bryan Staring	01:32.150	+3.191	12	320.7
22	Lukas Pesek	01:32.981	+4.022	10	319.5
23	Damian Cudlin	01:34.009	+5.050	12	321.3
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

Q1 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.999	—	8	339.0
2	Andrea Iannone	01:30.023	+0.024	8	339.6
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.081	+0.082	7	328.1
4	Claudio Corti	01:30.530	+0.531	7	326.9
5	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.641	+0.642	9	337.2
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:30.733	+0.734	8	328.3
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.894	+0.895	8	327.4
8	Michael Laverty	01:30.979	+0.980	9	327.7
9	Hector Barbera	01:31.061	+1.062	8	322.2
10	Luca Scassa	01:31.093	+1.094	9	323.7
11	Bryan Staring	01:31.775	+1.776	8	319.0
12	Lukas Pesek	01:32.474	+2.475	8	322.0
13	Damian Cudlin	01:33.007	+3.008	8	322.2
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

Q2 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:27.899	—	7	337.9
2	Marc Marquez	01:28.120	+0.221	8	342.5
3	Valentino Rossi	01:28.647	+0.748	9	340.1
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:28.713	+0.814	9	341.4
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:28.748	+0.849	9	337.9
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.809	+0.910	9	336.8
7	Bradley Smith	01:28.941	+1.042	9	334.5
8	Nicky Hayden	01:29.295	+1.396	8	335.0
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.660	+1.761	9	339.5
10	Andrea Iannone	01:29.756	+1.857	9	342.2
11	Colin Edwards	01:30.264	+2.365	2	329.9
12	Randy De Puniet	01:30.735	+2.836	7	327.2

Warm Up · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.905	—	12	343.2
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.006	+0.101	12	337.6
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.172	+0.267	11	334.8
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.260	+0.355	13	334.6
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:29.607	+0.702	13	342.2
6	Valentino Rossi	01:29.685	+0.780	13	341.9
7	Nicky Hayden	01:29.847	+0.942	13	335.2
8	Bradley Smith	01:30.067	+1.162	13	336.8
9	Colin Edwards	01:30.535	+1.630	12	327.2
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.551	+1.646	11	330.5
11	Andrea Iannone	01:30.941	+2.036	11	336.8
12	Claudio Corti	01:31.026	+2.121	12	326.3
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.095	+2.190	12	335.5
14	Randy De Puniet	01:31.109	+2.204	11	324.9
15	Hector Barbera	01:31.234	+2.329	10	320.5
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:31.326	+2.421	12	331.3
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.558	+2.653	12	322.7
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.630	+2.725	12	320.0
19	Luca Scassa	01:31.800	+2.895	12	322.8
20	Bryan Staring	01:32.539	+3.634	12	318.7
21	Lukas Pesek	01:33.185	+4.280	12	314.2
22	Michael Laverty	01:33.317	+4.412	8	305.3
23	Damian Cudlin	01:34.774	+5.869	9	316.5
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

Race · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	29:07.155	25	19
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+6.936	20	19
3	Valentino Rossi	+12.344	16	19
4	Cal Crutchlow	+12.460	13	19
5	Alvaro Bautista	+12.513	11	19
6	Bradley Smith	+28.263	10	19
7	Nicky Hayden	+32.953	9	19
8	Andrea Iannone	+35.062	8	19
9	Andrea Dovizioso	+35.104	7	19
10	Randy De Puniet	+37.426	6	19
11	Aleix Espargaro	+46.099	5	19
12	Colin Edwards	+48.149	4	19
13	Yonny Hernandez	+49.911	3	19
14	Hector Barbera	+49.998	2	19
15	Danilo Petrucci	+58.718	1	19
16	Luca Scassa	+58.791	0	19
17	Claudio Corti	+68.105	0	19
18	Michael Laverty	+87.230	0	19
19	Lukas Pesek	+91.093	0	19
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	+0.000	0	18
21	Damian Cudlin	+0.000	0	17
Disqualified	Bryan Staring		0	14
Disqualified	Marc Marquez		0	14

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	80%	3
2	Andrea Dovizioso	47%	1 ✓
3	Andrea Iannone	40%	2 ✓
4	Hector Barbera	7%	9
5	Danilo Petrucci	20%	7
6	Claudio Corti	0%	4
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	7%	6
8	Yonny Hernandez	0%	5
9	Michael Laverty	0%	8
10	Luca Scassa	0%	10
11	Bryan Staring	0%	11
12	Lukas Pesek	0%	12
13	Damian Cudlin	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Daniel Pedrosa	40%	80%	100%	5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	20%	53%	100%	1
3	Marc Marquez	33%	47%	93%	2
4	Valentino Rossi	7%	40%	67%	3
5	Alvaro Bautista	0%	40%	73%	4
6	Bradley Smith	0%	13%	60%	7
7	Cal Crutchlow	0%	20%	47%	6
8	Nicky Hayden	0%	7%	13%	8
9	Colin Edwards	0%	0%	20%	11
10	Randy De Puniet	0%	0%	20%	12
11	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	0%	0%	9
12	Andrea Iannone	0%	0%	10%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Stefan Bradl	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	298	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	255	−43
3	Daniel Pedrosa	244	−54
4	Valentino Rossi	198	−100
5	Cal Crutchlow	166	−132
6	Alvaro Bautista	136	−162

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

26/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

9.223 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P11 to P9.

Longest battle: Nicky Hayden vs Valentino Rossi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet