Round 1 of 18 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2012

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

05.04 – 08.04.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	42:44.214	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.852	20
3	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.908	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+17.114	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+17.420	11
6	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+28.413	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+28.446	9
8	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+29.464	8
9	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+31.384	7
10	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+33.665	6
11	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+56.907	5
12	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+58.088	4
13	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+70.650	3
14	Yonny Hernandez	BQR-FTR	Avintia Blusens	+75.943	2
15	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+86.733	1
16	Ivan Silva	BQR-FTR	Avintia Blusens	+103.327	0
17	Mattia Pasini	ART	Speed Master	+107.419	0
18	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+111.882	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	Not enough laps	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/22

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.852 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Daniel Pedrosa, from P7 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Cal Crutchlow (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	22:03:41		Jump start	Jump start
Race	22:16:09	Michele Pirro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	22:18:12	Karel Abraham	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	22:34:06	Danilo Petrucci	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Daniel Pedrosa	7	2	+5
Michele Pirro	17	14	+3
Andrea Dovizioso	6	4	+2
Nicky Hayden	5	8	−3
Randy De Puniet	14	17	−3
Hector Barbera	8	10	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Daniel Pedrosa	7→2	+4.7
Alvaro Bautista	11→7	+2.3
Jorge Lorenzo	1→1	+1.8
Aleix Espargaro	15→15	−3.2
Mattia Pasini	18→17	−3.2
Ben Spies	4→11	−6.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

23.8 °C

Air

max 24.2 °C

50%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 15 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:56.474	—	13	334.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.648	+0.174	15	329.9
3	Nicky Hayden	01:56.924	+0.450	16	334.2
4	Ben Spies	01:56.982	+0.508	17	326.7
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:57.130	+0.656	15	332.9
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.395	+0.921	17	329.2
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.512	+1.038	17	336.8
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.547	+1.073	16	330.0
9	Hector Barbera	01:57.912	+1.438	17	337.2
10	Valentino Rossi	01:57.914	+1.440	19	334.3
11	Karel Abraham	01:57.939	+1.465	18	336.1
12	Stefan Bradl	01:58.934	+2.460	16	330.9
13	Randy De Puniet	01:59.985	+3.511	15	314.0
14	Colin Edwards	02:00.044	+3.570	12	315.1
15	Michele Pirro	02:00.322	+3.848	15	309.5
16	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.720	+4.246	14	311.8
17	Ivan Silva	02:01.138	+4.664	17	304.7
18	Mattia Pasini	02:01.261	+4.787	16	307.6
19	Yonny Hernandez	02:01.276	+4.802	15	303.7
20	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.352	+4.878	15	288.5
21	James Ellison	02:03.421	+6.947	11	302.4

FP2 · 06.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:55.960	—	14	332.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.174	+0.214	15	328.8
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.648	+0.688	19	332.2
4	Ben Spies	01:56.671	+0.711	16	328.2
5	Hector Barbera	01:56.678	+0.718	15	339.0
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.697	+0.737	13	331.6
7	Nicky Hayden	01:56.782	+0.822	17	336.9
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.814	+0.854	17	330.5
9	Stefan Bradl	01:57.197	+1.237	16	332.4
10	Valentino Rossi	01:57.274	+1.314	18	337.0
11	Karel Abraham	01:57.523	+1.563	18	334.0
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.668	+1.708	17	334.1
13	Colin Edwards	01:58.801	+2.841	14	317.1
14	Randy De Puniet	01:58.945	+2.985	16	310.9
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:59.698	+3.738	18	307.5
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.997	+4.037	14	313.9
17	Michele Pirro	02:00.231	+4.271	12	309.9
18	Mattia Pasini	02:00.373	+4.413	16	314.4
19	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.404	+4.444	15	292.4
20	Ivan Silva	02:00.787	+4.827	11	305.9
21	James Ellison	02:02.112	+6.152	13	303.1

FP3 · 06.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.302	—	17	329.7
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.456	+0.154	18	329.6
3	Casey Stoner	01:55.674	+0.372	13	336.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.905	+0.603	18	333.4
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.114	+0.812	17	334.9
6	Hector Barbera	01:56.163	+0.861	14	338.3
7	Nicky Hayden	01:56.402	+1.100	18	338.8
8	Valentino Rossi	01:56.535	+1.233	17	337.4
9	Stefan Bradl	01:56.751	+1.449	16	335.1
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.771	+1.469	17	334.0
11	Ben Spies	01:57.030	+1.728	8	327.0
12	Karel Abraham	01:57.223	+1.921	19	335.8
13	Randy De Puniet	01:58.261	+2.959	15	312.3
14	Colin Edwards	01:58.310	+3.008	15	316.8
15	Michele Pirro	01:58.800	+3.498	15	313.5
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:59.087	+3.785	17	306.6
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.169	+3.867	13	313.1
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.517	+4.215	15	292.2
19	Ivan Silva	02:00.035	+4.733	14	311.4
20	Mattia Pasini	02:00.226	+4.924	9	314.5
21	James Ellison	02:00.563	+5.261	14	312.2

Qualifying · 07.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.634	—	23	327.1
2	Casey Stoner	01:54.855	+0.221	17	331.9
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.022	+0.388	22	328.0
4	Ben Spies	01:55.512	+0.878	20	326.1
5	Nicky Hayden	01:55.637	+1.003	24	334.2
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.858	+1.224	25	328.9
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.905	+1.271	22	330.8
8	Hector Barbera	01:55.983	+1.349	21	337.1
9	Stefan Bradl	01:56.063	+1.429	23	334.0
10	Karel Abraham	01:56.198	+1.564	21	333.5
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.521	+1.887	23	334.3
12	Valentino Rossi	01:56.813	+2.179	22	338.1
13	Colin Edwards	01:57.644	+3.010	20	314.8
14	Randy De Puniet	01:58.266	+3.632	18	309.6
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.520	+3.886	21	312.1
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:58.795	+4.161	24	303.6
17	Michele Pirro	01:59.085	+4.451	14	311.1
18	Mattia Pasini	01:59.195	+4.561	18	311.5
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.664	+5.030	17	296.8
20	Ivan Silva	02:00.493	+5.859	18	306.1
21	James Ellison	02:00.757	+6.123	19	309.9

Warm Up · 08.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:55.999	—	9	337.1
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.075	+0.076	10	335.7
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.326	+0.327	11	333.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.345	+0.346	10	333.2
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.469	+0.470	8	332.9
6	Nicky Hayden	01:56.775	+0.776	11	337.7
7	Hector Barbera	01:56.783	+0.784	11	341.3
8	Stefan Bradl	01:56.982	+0.983	10	334.7
9	Valentino Rossi	01:57.143	+1.144	10	339.4
10	Ben Spies	01:57.146	+1.147	10	329.8
11	Karel Abraham	01:57.402	+1.403	9	335.1
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.580	+1.581	8	337.0
13	Colin Edwards	01:58.435	+2.436	9	317.6
14	Randy De Puniet	01:58.829	+2.830	10	311.1
15	Michele Pirro	01:59.363	+3.364	7	316.0
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:59.510	+3.511	10	307.1
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.775	+3.776	10	312.3
18	Mattia Pasini	02:00.521	+4.522	9	310.3
19	Ivan Silva	02:00.939	+4.940	10	311.9
20	James Ellison	02:01.257	+5.258	8	311.8
21	Danilo Petrucci	02:03.291	+7.292	4	297.8

Race · 08.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	42:44.214	25	22
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+0.852	20	22
3	Casey Stoner	+2.908	16	22
4	Cal Crutchlow	+17.114	13	22
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+17.420	11	22
6	Nicky Hayden	+28.413	10	22
7	Alvaro Bautista	+28.446	9	22
8	Stefan Bradl	+29.464	8	22
9	Hector Barbera	+31.384	7	22
10	Valentino Rossi	+33.665	6	22
11	Ben Spies	+56.907	5	22
12	Colin Edwards	+58.088	4	22
13	Randy De Puniet	+70.650	3	22
14	Yonny Hernandez	+75.943	2	22
15	Aleix Espargaro	+86.733	1	22
16	Ivan Silva	+103.327	0	22
17	Mattia Pasini	+107.419	0	22
18	James Ellison	+111.882	0	22
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	15
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	7
Not enough laps	Michele Pirro		0	15

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

15/22

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

3.440 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P13 to P9.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marco Simoncelli (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet