Round 9 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2012

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

13.07 – 15.07.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	41:37.477	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.223	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+10.665	16
4	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+10.711	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+11.695	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+12.060	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+12.235	9
8	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+30.617	8
9	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+31.728	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+34.589	6
11	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+57.862	5
12	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+59.963	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+71.200	3
14	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+71.458	2
15	Mattia Pasini	ART	Speed Master	+71.828	1
16	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	+0.000	0
DNF	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	Excluded	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

5.223 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	7	2	+5
Mattia Pasini	17	13	+4
Danilo Petrucci	20	17	+3
Hector Barbera	3	6	−3
Casey Stoner	5	8	−3
Cal Crutchlow	6	9	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	7→3	+3.7
Valentino Rossi	10→5	+3.6
Stefan Bradl	8→4	+3.3
Ben Spies	9→11	−3.0
Aleix Espargaro	12→13	−3.1
Hector Barbera	3→9	−4.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

26.1 °C

Air

max 26.2 °C

40%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

22 km/h

Wind

gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.131	—	17	335.8
2	Casey Stoner	01:48.649	+0.518	15	335.3
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.877	+0.746	18	338.5
4	Nicky Hayden	01:48.981	+0.850	20	339.3
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.023	+0.892	18	335.9
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.038	+0.907	19	340.6
7	Valentino Rossi	01:49.074	+0.943	19	340.4
8	Hector Barbera	01:49.166	+1.035	17	345.5
9	Ben Spies	01:49.398	+1.267	12	337.7
10	Stefan Bradl	01:49.438	+1.307	19	339.1
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.688	+1.557	16	337.1
12	Randy De Puniet	01:50.949	+2.818	16	315.6
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.101	+2.970	16	318.4
14	Mattia Pasini	01:51.253	+3.122	19	316.9
15	Michele Pirro	01:51.835	+3.704	17	317.4
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:51.973	+3.842	20	314.6
17	Colin Edwards	01:52.154	+4.023	14	320.1
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:52.952	+4.821	18	300.3
19	James Ellison	01:53.390	+5.259	17	318.9
20	Ivan Silva	01:53.931	+5.800	18	309.0

FP2 · 13.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.076	—	22	340.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.107	+0.031	22	339.9
3	Nicky Hayden	01:48.157	+0.081	19	343.6
4	Hector Barbera	01:48.254	+0.178	19	346.7
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.308	+0.232	22	340.4
6	Casey Stoner	01:48.527	+0.451	17	339.1
7	Ben Spies	01:48.540	+0.464	20	339.5
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.650	+0.574	23	340.8
9	Valentino Rossi	01:49.017	+0.941	20	344.1
10	Stefan Bradl	01:49.022	+0.946	22	338.3
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.208	+1.132	17	337.4
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.015	+1.939	17	322.1
13	Randy De Puniet	01:50.269	+2.193	17	318.0
14	Michele Pirro	01:51.130	+3.054	17	321.5
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:51.322	+3.246	18	316.3
16	Mattia Pasini	01:51.384	+3.308	16	320.5
17	Colin Edwards	01:51.857	+3.781	17	327.9
18	James Ellison	01:51.966	+3.890	18	321.2
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:52.109	+4.033	20	302.6
20	Ivan Silva	01:52.558	+4.482	21	317.3

FP3 · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.584	—	19	337.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.679	+0.095	18	341.0
3	Casey Stoner	01:47.873	+0.289	16	337.4
4	Ben Spies	01:47.886	+0.302	19	339.9
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.028	+0.444	16	339.0
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.068	+0.484	19	338.2
7	Nicky Hayden	01:48.189	+0.605	20	339.6
8	Hector Barbera	01:48.441	+0.857	18	342.7
9	Stefan Bradl	01:48.527	+0.943	20	338.3
10	Valentino Rossi	01:48.740	+1.156	21	339.8
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.234	+1.650	17	326.5
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.310	+1.726	15	337.6
13	Randy De Puniet	01:49.715	+2.131	18	319.3
14	Ivan Silva	01:50.751	+3.167	19	317.4
15	Michele Pirro	01:50.962	+3.378	16	323.0
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:51.325	+3.741	20	302.3
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:51.341	+3.757	21	314.9
18	Mattia Pasini	01:51.587	+4.003	18	319.1
19	James Ellison	01:51.705	+4.121	18	322.1
20	Colin Edwards	01:51.729	+4.145	17	326.9

Qualifying · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.284	—	24	342.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.423	+0.139	23	342.7
3	Hector Barbera	01:47.545	+0.261	18	342.1
4	Nicky Hayden	01:47.671	+0.387	25	343.4
5	Casey Stoner	01:47.689	+0.405	24	338.6
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.749	+0.465	22	340.2
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.751	+0.467	25	339.1
8	Stefan Bradl	01:47.857	+0.573	26	339.2
9	Ben Spies	01:48.149	+0.865	23	340.4
10	Valentino Rossi	01:48.502	+1.218	28	341.8
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:48.894	+1.610	26	338.6
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.387	+2.103	21	327.7
13	Randy De Puniet	01:49.450	+2.166	20	326.7
14	Michele Pirro	01:50.263	+2.979	18	321.5
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:50.610	+3.326	26	318.7
16	James Ellison	01:50.812	+3.528	25	320.2
17	Mattia Pasini	01:50.953	+3.669	22	318.7
18	Ivan Silva	01:51.242	+3.958	26	319.2
19	Colin Edwards	01:51.348	+4.064	21	325.9
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:51.473	+4.189	24	303.3

Warm Up · 15.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.473	—	11	344.1
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.935	+0.462	11	340.9
3	Casey Stoner	01:47.963	+0.490	10	340.3
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.996	+0.523	10	339.1
5	Nicky Hayden	01:48.064	+0.591	11	341.6
6	Stefan Bradl	01:48.075	+0.602	10	338.6
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.115	+0.642	10	339.9
8	Ben Spies	01:48.137	+0.664	10	340.3
9	Hector Barbera	01:48.148	+0.675	11	346.7
10	Valentino Rossi	01:48.330	+0.857	11	342.2
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.025	+1.552	11	336.7
12	Randy De Puniet	01:49.583	+2.110	10	323.5
13	Mattia Pasini	01:50.136	+2.663	10	317.3
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.274	+2.801	10	325.4
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:50.854	+3.381	10	316.6
16	Ivan Silva	01:50.957	+3.484	11	320.6
17	Michele Pirro	01:51.074	+3.601	10	322.5
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:51.416	+3.943	10	307.0
19	Colin Edwards	01:51.444	+3.971	10	327.0
20	James Ellison	01:51.477	+4.004	10	319.9

Race · 15.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	41:37.477	25	23
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+5.223	20	23
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+10.665	16	23
4	Stefan Bradl	+10.711	13	23
5	Valentino Rossi	+11.695	11	23
6	Cal Crutchlow	+12.060	10	23
7	Nicky Hayden	+12.235	9	23
8	Casey Stoner	+30.617	8	23
9	Hector Barbera	+31.728	7	23
10	Alvaro Bautista	+34.589	6	23
11	Ben Spies	+57.862	5	23
12	Randy De Puniet	+59.963	4	23
13	Aleix Espargaro	+71.200	3	23
14	James Ellison	+71.458	2	23
15	Mattia Pasini	+71.828	1	23
16	Ivan Silva	+0.000	0	22
Retired	Colin Edwards		0	10
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	3
Excluded	Michele Pirro		0	0
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	9

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	160	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	146	−14
3	Casey Stoner	140	−20
4	Andrea Dovizioso	92	−68
5	Cal Crutchlow	85	−75
6	Valentino Rossi	71	−89

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.997 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P12 to P6.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet