Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2012

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

19.10 – 21.10.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	29:29.049	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+3.774	20
3	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.144	16
4	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.518	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+16.759	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+17.276	10
7	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+50.282	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+51.585	8
9	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+56.676	7
10	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+57.622	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+62.805	5
12	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+62.891	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+88.989	3
DNF	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Roberto Rolfo	ART	Speed Master	Disqualified	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/13

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

3.774 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: James Ellison, from P16 to P9.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Jorge Lorenzo (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Valentino Rossi	11	5	+6
Stefan Bradl	8	4	+4
Karel Abraham	14	11	+3
Hector Barbera	7	13	−6
Cal Crutchlow	5	10	−5
Andrea Dovizioso	3	6	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	11→5	+4.3
Nicky Hayden	9→4	+4.0
James Ellison	16→9	+3.5
Michele Pirro	15→12	−0.2
Hector Barbera	7→7	−0.3
Andrea Dovizioso	3→13	−8.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

25.6 °C

Air

max 25.6 °C

86%

Humidity

1.5 mm

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.621	—	16	321.2
2	Casey Stoner	02:01.773	+0.152	15	323.5
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.934	+0.313	14	322.1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:02.236	+0.615	16	320.9
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.266	+0.645	16	317.9
6	Ben Spies	02:02.358	+0.737	16	321.2
7	Stefan Bradl	02:02.617	+0.996	17	321.7
8	Nicky Hayden	02:02.754	+1.133	17	322.7
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.872	+1.251	16	319.9
10	Hector Barbera	02:03.221	+1.600	16	315.9
11	Valentino Rossi	02:03.274	+1.653	18	318.6
12	Karel Abraham	02:04.624	+3.003	17	311.9
13	Randy De Puniet	02:05.029	+3.408	16	301.3
14	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.077	+3.456	14	300.5
15	Colin Edwards	02:05.387	+3.766	15	305.9
16	Michele Pirro	02:06.058	+4.437	14	290.0
17	James Ellison	02:06.452	+4.831	17	297.2
18	Roberto Rolfo	02:06.470	+4.849	16	291.3
19	Yonny Hernandez	02:07.257	+5.636	13	296.2
20	Ivan Silva	02:07.291	+5.670	17	298.3
21	Danilo Petrucci	02:07.818	+6.197	16	299.8

FP2 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Ivan Silva	02:10.602	—	14	290.7
2	Michele Pirro	02:12.043	+1.441	4	270.8
3	Randy De Puniet	02:12.046	+1.444	10	294.4
4	Roberto Rolfo	02:13.216	+2.614	9	295.9
5	Karel Abraham	02:16.143	+5.541	9	286.4
6	Alvaro Bautista	02:17.136	+6.534	5	284.6
7	Valentino Rossi	02:17.173	+6.571	10	291.7
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:17.429	+6.827	8	285.6
9	Nicky Hayden	02:17.804	+7.202	4	271.4
10	James Ellison	02:18.478	+7.876	5	265.3
11	Stefan Bradl	02:19.085	+8.483	4	268.1
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0
Retired	Ben Spies		—	0	0.0
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		—	0	0.0
Retired	Casey Stoner		—	0	0.0
—	Colin Edwards	02:26.857	+16.255	4	261.8
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		—	0	0.0
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		—	0	0.0
—	Hector Barbera	02:21.113	+10.511	4	292.4
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.186	—	16	322.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.344	+0.158	19	324.2
3	Casey Stoner	02:01.693	+0.507	12	323.1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.696	+0.510	17	323.5
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.995	+0.809	17	317.8
6	Ben Spies	02:02.334	+1.148	17	319.4
7	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.449	+1.263	18	321.4
8	Nicky Hayden	02:02.679	+1.493	14	320.9
9	Stefan Bradl	02:02.821	+1.635	17	321.3
10	Valentino Rossi	02:03.083	+1.897	17	321.6
11	Hector Barbera	02:03.112	+1.926	17	321.8
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.109	+2.923	14	303.9
13	Karel Abraham	02:04.566	+3.380	17	318.9
14	Randy De Puniet	02:04.962	+3.776	15	299.8
15	Colin Edwards	02:05.407	+4.221	12	304.2
16	Michele Pirro	02:05.615	+4.429	16	298.7
17	Danilo Petrucci	02:05.967	+4.781	15	299.6
18	James Ellison	02:06.098	+4.912	16	303.3
19	Roberto Rolfo	02:06.257	+5.071	16	301.1
20	Ivan Silva	02:06.622	+5.436	16	296.9
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		—	0	0.0

Qualifying · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.334	—	23	323.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.528	+0.194	22	325.9
3	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.567	+0.233	19	324.6
4	Casey Stoner	02:00.811	+0.477	21	321.6
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.178	+0.844	21	320.0
6	Ben Spies	02:01.185	+0.851	22	320.3
7	Hector Barbera	02:01.294	+0.960	20	316.4
8	Stefan Bradl	02:01.491	+1.157	23	322.6
9	Nicky Hayden	02:01.526	+1.192	24	323.3
10	Alvaro Bautista	02:01.640	+1.306	19	320.3
11	Valentino Rossi	02:01.783	+1.449	24	322.8
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.842	+2.508	19	304.7
13	Randy De Puniet	02:03.389	+3.055	21	306.2
14	Karel Abraham	02:03.774	+3.440	23	313.6
15	Michele Pirro	02:04.152	+3.818	19	300.5
16	James Ellison	02:04.515	+4.181	21	303.9
17	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.726	+4.392	20	300.8
18	Colin Edwards	02:04.941	+4.607	22	306.1
19	Roberto Rolfo	02:05.100	+4.766	20	303.1
20	Ivan Silva	02:05.921	+5.587	22	299.1
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		—	0	0.0

Race · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Daniel Pedrosa	29:29.049	25	13
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+3.774	20	13
3	Casey Stoner	+7.144	16	13
4	Nicky Hayden	+10.518	13	13
5	Valentino Rossi	+16.759	11	13
6	Alvaro Bautista	+17.276	10	13
7	Hector Barbera	+50.282	9	13
8	Aleix Espargaro	+51.585	8	13
9	James Ellison	+56.676	7	13
10	Karel Abraham	+57.622	6	13
11	Danilo Petrucci	+62.805	5	13
12	Michele Pirro	+62.891	4	13
13	Andrea Dovizioso	+88.989	3	13
Retired	Ben Spies		0	8
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	10
Retired	Colin Edwards		0	10
Retired	Ivan Silva		0	10
Retired	Randy De Puniet		0	10
Disqualified	Roberto Rolfo		0	13
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	11

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Yonny Hernandez	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	310	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	282	−28
3	Casey Stoner	197	−113
4	Andrea Dovizioso	192	−118
5	Alvaro Bautista	144	−166
6	Valentino Rossi	137	−173

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

10/20

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

0.224 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet