Round 13 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2010

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

17.09 – 19.09.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	42:16.530	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.148	20
3	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+9.496	16
4	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+9.580	13
5	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.771	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+27.330	10
7	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+28.511	9
8	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+35.254	8
9	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+35.393	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+35.467	6
11	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+35.522	5
12	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+45.360	4
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+48.319	3
14	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+58.047	2
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

5.148 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Melandri, from P14 to P9.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Nicky Hayden (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marco Simoncelli	9	6	+3
Marco Melandri	14	12	+2
Hector Barbera	10	9	+1
Randy De Puniet	6	10	−4
Colin Edwards	11	14	−3
Hiroshi Aoyama	15	16	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marco Melandri	14→9	+2.2
Daniel Pedrosa	3→2	+2.1
Alvaro Bautista	12→8	+1.9
Mika Kallio	16→14	−1.5
Hector Barbera	10→11	−2.4
Colin Edwards	11→12	−2.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

21.2 °C

Air

max 21.6 °C

50%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 24 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.506	—	21	323.1
2	Nicky Hayden	01:50.917	+0.411	19	314.9
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.928	+0.422	20	314.8
4	Casey Stoner	01:51.195	+0.689	16	318.7
5	Marco Simoncelli	01:51.768	+1.262	19	315.8
6	Valentino Rossi	01:51.769	+1.263	19	314.1
7	Hector Barbera	01:51.792	+1.286	19	319.6
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:51.845	+1.339	20	320.6
9	Colin Edwards	01:52.027	+1.521	19	315.9
10	Ben Spies	01:52.141	+1.635	19	313.3
11	Marco Melandri	01:52.321	+1.815	21	319.3
12	Randy De Puniet	01:52.340	+1.834	20	318.1
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:52.752	+2.246	17	315.8
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:52.822	+2.316	20	315.1
15	Mika Kallio	01:53.190	+2.684	20	317.7
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:53.512	+3.006	16	318.1

FP2 · 17.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	02:01.710	—	15	313.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.278	+0.568	17	311.8
3	Nicky Hayden	02:02.411	+0.701	17	308.2
4	Valentino Rossi	02:02.878	+1.168	17	310.8
5	Marco Melandri	02:03.146	+1.436	15	315.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	02:03.754	+2.044	15	313.0
7	Randy De Puniet	02:03.801	+2.091	10	307.0
8	Ben Spies	02:03.874	+2.164	17	306.5
9	Hector Barbera	02:04.063	+2.353	17	314.7
10	Marco Simoncelli	02:04.151	+2.441	16	310.0
11	Colin Edwards	02:04.868	+3.158	12	307.8
12	Alvaro Bautista	02:05.170	+3.460	19	311.3
13	Daniel Pedrosa	02:05.394	+3.684	13	314.4
14	Mika Kallio	02:06.257	+4.547	15	309.0
15	Aleix Espargaro	02:07.133	+5.423	12	308.2
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:07.632	+5.922	16	312.4

FP3 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:50.115	—	17	325.7
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.452	+0.337	21	329.5
3	Nicky Hayden	01:50.675	+0.560	19	321.6
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.724	+0.609	19	326.5
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.764	+0.649	19	320.7
6	Ben Spies	01:50.843	+0.728	21	319.8
7	Randy De Puniet	01:50.986	+0.871	20	322.0
8	Colin Edwards	01:51.242	+1.127	19	319.8
9	Marco Simoncelli	01:51.397	+1.282	18	321.4
10	Marco Melandri	01:51.444	+1.329	19	325.9
11	Valentino Rossi	01:51.588	+1.473	20	318.4
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:51.642	+1.527	19	326.2
13	Hector Barbera	01:51.654	+1.539	19	322.5
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.833	+1.718	18	324.7
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.962	+1.847	21	322.1
16	Mika Kallio	01:52.141	+2.026	20	321.2

Qualifying · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:48.942	—	18	324.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.251	+0.309	21	318.6
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.343	+0.401	21	326.8
4	Nicky Hayden	01:49.506	+0.564	19	319.0
5	Ben Spies	01:49.565	+0.623	20	317.9
6	Randy De Puniet	01:49.952	+1.010	19	321.5
7	Valentino Rossi	01:50.017	+1.075	20	318.7
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.046	+1.104	21	323.8
9	Marco Simoncelli	01:50.088	+1.146	19	318.8
10	Hector Barbera	01:50.323	+1.381	20	326.7
11	Colin Edwards	01:50.440	+1.498	19	318.9
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:50.523	+1.581	21	321.8
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.537	+1.595	21	320.2
14	Marco Melandri	01:50.580	+1.638	20	324.7
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:50.836	+1.894	18	325.4
16	Mika Kallio	01:51.490	+2.548	19	321.4

Warm Up · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Nicky Hayden	01:50.339	—	11	319.6
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.362	+0.023	10	325.3
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.464	+0.125	10	319.4
4	Valentino Rossi	01:50.687	+0.348	11	317.3
5	Marco Simoncelli	01:50.760	+0.421	10	317.3
6	Casey Stoner	01:50.806	+0.467	6	320.3
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.896	+0.557	11	320.9
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.090	+0.751	11	321.4
9	Mika Kallio	01:51.272	+0.933	11	323.4
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.273	+0.934	11	321.0
11	Marco Melandri	01:51.342	+1.003	11	324.0
12	Hector Barbera	01:51.415	+1.076	9	322.7
13	Ben Spies	01:51.437	+1.098	10	316.7
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:51.660	+1.321	11	323.3
15	Randy De Puniet	01:52.308	+1.969	8	315.5
16	Colin Edwards	01:52.498	+2.159	10	315.4

Race · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	42:16.530	25	23
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+5.148	20	23
3	Nicky Hayden	+9.496	16	23
4	Jorge Lorenzo	+9.580	13	23
5	Ben Spies	+13.771	11	23
6	Valentino Rossi	+27.330	10	23
7	Marco Simoncelli	+28.511	9	23
8	Alvaro Bautista	+35.254	8	23
9	Marco Melandri	+35.393	7	23
10	Aleix Espargaro	+35.467	6	23
11	Hector Barbera	+35.522	5	23
12	Colin Edwards	+45.360	4	23
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	+48.319	3	23
14	Mika Kallio	+58.047	2	23
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	22
Retired	Randy De Puniet		0	15

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	271	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	208	−63
3	Andrea Dovizioso	139	−132
4	Casey Stoner	130	−141
5	Valentino Rossi	130	−141
6	Ben Spies	120	−151

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet