Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2010

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

01.10 – 03.10.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	43:12.266	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.868	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+5.707	16
4	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+6.221	13
5	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+27.092	11
6	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+30.021	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+31.826	9
8	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+35.572	8
9	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+47.564	7
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+49.598	6
11	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+49.999	5
12	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+50.703	4
13	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+51.422	3
14	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+52.843	2
15	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+74.668	1
DNF	Loris Capirossi	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

3.868 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P14 to P10.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Valentino Rossi (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Loris Capirossi	10	6	+4
Marco Melandri	12	9	+3
Hector Barbera	15	13	+2
Randy De Puniet	7	11	−4
Alvaro Bautista	9	12	−3
Valentino Rossi	2	4	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Casey Stoner	3→1	+3.1
Marco Simoncelli	8→6	+1.3
Hiroshi Aoyama	14→10	+1.2
Mika Kallio	16→15	−2.5
Nicky Hayden	11→12	−2.7
Aleix Espargaro	13→14	−3.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

21.4 °C

Air

max 21.4 °C

68%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Daniel Pedrosa	17	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	284	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	228	−56
3	Casey Stoner	155	−129
4	Valentino Rossi	140	−144
5	Andrea Dovizioso	139	−145
6	Ben Spies	131	−153

Full championship →

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%