Round 20 of 20 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2022

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

04.11 – 06.11.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	41:22.250	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.396	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+1.059	16
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+1.911	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.122	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+7.735	10
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.524	9
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.038	8
9	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.441	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.676	6
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+17.655	5
12	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+24.870	4
13	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+26.546	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+26.610	2
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+31.819	1
16	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+88.870	0
17	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 25%	Alex Rins · 8% · from P5	0.82 / 0.82	3.0 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.531	—	+0.210	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:31.685	+0.154	+0.105	Medium	20
Brad Binder	1:31.703	+0.172	+0.327	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.720	+0.189	+0.275	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:31.730	+0.199	+0.217	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:31.742	+0.211	+0.457	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.832	+0.301	+0.193	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:31.874	+0.343	+0.562	Medium	15
Luca Marini	1:31.876	+0.345	+0.308	Medium	24
Johann Zarco	1:31.932	+0.401	+0.344	Medium	12
Enea Bastianini	1:32.058	+0.527	+0.319	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.079	+0.548	+0.512	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.149	+0.618	+0.553	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.174	+0.643	+0.221	Medium	25
Raul Fernandez	1:32.488	+0.957	+0.667	Medium	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.523	+0.992	+0.729	Medium	24
Remy Gardner	1:32.559	+1.028	+1.660	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.587	+1.056	+0.359	Soft	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.745	+1.214	+0.320	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:32.837	+1.306	+0.292	Medium	12
Alex Marquez	1:33.140	+1.609	+0.356	Soft	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.396 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P24 to P14.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jorge Martin (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:07:00	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:14	Darryn Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:10:02	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:01	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:10	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:59	Maverick Viñales	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:24:49	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:35:18	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #30

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Alex Rins (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Raul Fernandez	22	18	+4
Alex Rins	5	1	+4
Alex Marquez	15	12	+3
Aleix Espargaro	10	14	−4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	19	23	−4
Maverick Viñales	6	10	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	14→5	+6.2
Brad Binder	7→2	+4.7
Alex Rins	5→1	+4.4
Francesco Bagnaia	8→9	−1.7
Cal Crutchlow	17→16	−2.9
Alex Marquez	15→17	−5.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	92%	+0.59%	+0.017	1	3	8.1
Soft	8%	+1.46%	+0.020	0	0	15.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.6 °C

Air

max 26.6 °C

21%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.399	—	23	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.690	—	15	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.434	+0.035	17	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.370	+0.74%	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:31.470	+0.071	20	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.854	+2.36%	11	Hard
4	Jack Miller	01:31.542	+0.143	22	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.049	+0.39%	13	Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:31.564	+0.165	19	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.826	+1.24%	6	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:31.684	+0.285	23	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.552	+0.94%	10	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	01:31.762	+0.363	20	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.210	+1.66%	6	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.775	+0.376	19	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.360	+0.73%	7	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.782	+0.383	18	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.188	+0.54%	6	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:31.809	+0.410	20	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.259	+1.71%	12	Medium
11	Luca Marini	01:31.874	+0.475	21	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:33.446	+1.92%	5	Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	01:31.881	+0.482	19	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.570	+2.05%	4	Hard
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.915	+0.516	20	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.243	+1.69%	7	Medium
14	Enea Bastianini	01:31.917	+0.518	22	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.523	+2.00%	16	Medium
15	Remy Gardner	01:31.977	+0.578	19	322.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.861	+2.37%	5	Hard
16	Maverick Viñales	01:31.993	+0.594	18	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:32.238	+0.60%	6	Medium
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.999	+0.600	19	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:32.997	+1.43%	6	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:32.068	+0.669	19	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.767	+1.18%	5	Medium
19	Pol Espargaro	01:32.116	+0.717	21	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.296	+1.75%	12	Medium
20	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.159	+0.760	18	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.763	+1.17%	11	Medium
21	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.274	+0.875	20	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.553	+2.03%	6	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.604	+1.205	19	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.232	+1.68%	10	Medium
23	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.982	+1.583	21	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.197	+2.73%	11	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.969	+2.570	9	319.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.763	+3.35%	6	Medium

FP2 · 04.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Luca Marini	01:30.217	—	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.450	+0.07%	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:30.322	+0.105	20	328.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.384	—	6	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:30.345	+0.128	18	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.390	+0.173	19	327.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Enea Bastianini	01:30.394	+0.177	20	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.128	+0.81%	4	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.422	+0.205	21	325.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.641	+0.28%	5	Medium
7	Johann Zarco	01:30.424	+0.207	21	324.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.442	+0.225	21	325.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.414	+0.03%	7	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.447	+0.230	20	327.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.378	+1.09%	5	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:30.519	+0.302	20	328.9	Hard / Wet-Medium	1:31.895	+0.56%	5	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:30.707	+0.490	22	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.448	+0.07%	6	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:30.814	+0.597	19	327.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.890	+0.673	17	327.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Joan Mir	01:31.004	+0.787	18	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.014	+0.797	21	327.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.016	+0.799	15	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Marquez	01:31.148	+0.931	19	325.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.120	+0.81%	5	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:31.249	+1.032	19	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.345	+1.128	19	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:31.598	+1.381	19	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.539	+1.26%	5	Medium
21	Remy Gardner	01:31.621	+1.404	20	322.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.672	+1.455	21	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.762	+1.545	13	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:32.420	+2.203	20	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.743	+2.58%	6	Medium

FP3 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:29.921	—	19	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.710	+0.23%	6	Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:30.026	+0.105	22	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.856	+0.39%	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:30.188	+0.267	18	332.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.231	+0.310	24	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Marc Marquez	01:30.279	+0.358	23	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.885	+0.42%	6	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.300	+0.379	20	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.842	+0.37%	5	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.324	+0.403	21	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.082	+0.63%	4	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:30.383	+0.462	22	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.502	—	9	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:30.388	+0.467	21	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:30.415	+0.494	13	332.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.431	+0.510	20	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.446	+0.525	23	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.710	+0.23%	7	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	01:30.495	+0.574	22	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.920	+0.46%	7	Medium
14	Luca Marini	01:30.554	+0.633	22	332.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Maverick Viñales	01:30.581	+0.660	17	327.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:30.868	+0.947	22	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:30.957	+1.036	18	328.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Remy Gardner	01:31.056	+1.135	21	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.624	+1.23%	6	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.093	+1.172	17	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.097	+1.176	19	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.430	+1.01%	5	Medium
21	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.121	+1.200	20	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.724	+1.34%	5	Medium
22	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.687	+1.766	10	328.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Darryn Binder	01:31.753	+1.832	18	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:32.468	+2.547	4	325.8	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.762	—	17	324.3	— / —	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.996	+0.234	18	324.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:31.044	+0.282	18	328.9	Hard / Medium	1:31.642	+0.14%	10	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:31.051	+0.289	15	328.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:31.072	+0.310	16	328.9	— / —	—			—
6	Luca Marini	01:31.096	+0.334	16	328.9	— / —	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:31.123	+0.361	20	332.1	Hard / Medium	1:31.550	+0.04%	15	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:31.160	+0.398	16	327.4	Hard / Medium	1:31.867	+0.39%	11	Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:31.176	+0.414	16	330.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.177	+0.415	14	324.3	— / —	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.270	+0.508	13	328.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.276	+0.514	17	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.571	+0.06%	11	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:31.360	+0.598	13	330.5	Hard / Medium	1:31.739	+0.25%	6	Medium
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.389	+0.627	13	327.4	— / —	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	01:31.431	+0.669	16	327.4	— / —	—			—
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.434	+0.672	15	322.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.449	+0.687	16	325.8	Hard / Medium	1:31.513	—	5	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:31.453	+0.691	16	322.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.828	+0.34%	7	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:31.541	+0.779	16	325.8	— / —	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.633	+0.871	15	322.8	— / —	—			—
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.808	+1.046	13	325.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.035	+0.57%	5	Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:31.917	+1.155	12	322.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.522	+1.10%	6	Medium
23	Darryn Binder	01:32.350	+1.588	12	325.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.685	+1.28%	6	Medium
Retired	Raul Fernandez		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:30.090	—	8	324.3	Hard / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:30.126	+0.036	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:30.193	+0.103	6	327.4	Hard / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.236	+0.146	8	322.8	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:30.453	+0.363	7	324.3	Hard / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.504	+0.414	9	322.8	Hard / Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.548	+0.458	8	322.8	Hard / Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.588	+0.498	8	325.8	Hard / Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.695	+0.605	8	327.4	Medium / Soft
10	Remy Gardner	01:30.804	+0.714	9	322.8	Hard / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.830	+0.740	8	321.3	Medium / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:30.936	+0.846	5	325.8	Hard / Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:31.676	+1.586	8	322.8	Hard / Soft
14	Darryn Binder	01:31.989	+1.899	8	324.3	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.621	—	7	328.9	Hard / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.826	+0.205	9	325.8	Hard / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:29.834	+0.213	7	328.9	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.900	+0.279	9	324.3	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:29.940	+0.319	7	328.9	Soft / Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:29.955	+0.334	8	325.8	Hard / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:30.039	+0.418	8	327.4	Hard / Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.049	+0.428	8	330.5	Hard / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:30.102	+0.481	7	325.8	Hard / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.124	+0.503	9	325.8	Hard / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:30.143	+0.522	8	327.4	Medium / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:30.241	+0.620	9	325.8	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:30.885	—	11	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.324	+0.14%	6	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.926	+0.041	12	325.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:30.983	+0.098	13	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.265	+0.07%	5	Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:31.097	+0.212	13	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.201	—	5	Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:31.173	+0.288	13	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.530	+0.36%	8	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:31.190	+0.305	13	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.561	+0.40%	11	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:31.233	+0.348	11	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.759	+0.61%	7	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:31.250	+0.365	9	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.104	+0.99%	6	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.252	+0.367	12	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:31.422	+0.24%	8	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.268	+0.383	13	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.691	+0.54%	11	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.270	+0.385	11	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.508	+0.34%	7	Medium
12	Jorge Martin	01:31.293	+0.408	11	330.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.458	+0.573	12	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.558	+0.39%	4	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:31.467	+0.582	11	322.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.848	+0.71%	7	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:31.473	+0.588	11	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.884	+0.75%	6	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:31.502	+0.617	12	322.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.684	+0.53%	10	Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.512	+0.627	12	319.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.861	+0.72%	9	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.570	+0.685	11	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.009	+0.89%	6	Soft
19	Remy Gardner	01:31.592	+0.707	13	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.848	+2.90%	10	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.694	+0.809	10	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.349	+1.26%	7	Medium
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.755	+0.870	13	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.078	+0.96%	11	Soft
22	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.994	+1.109	12	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.406	+1.32%	6	Medium
23	Raul Fernandez	01:32.144	+1.259	8	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.726	+1.67%	5	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.322	+2.437	11	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.250	+3.34%	8	Medium

Race · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	41:22.250	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.730	+0.22%	25	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+0.396	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.703	+0.19%	25	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	+1.059	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.742	+0.23%	25	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	+1.911	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.720	+0.21%	24	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	+7.122	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.832	+0.33%	25	Medium
6	Joan Mir	+7.735	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.874	+0.38%	15	Medium
7	Luca Marini	+8.524	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.876	+0.38%	24	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	+12.038	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.058	+0.58%	25	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.441	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.174	+0.70%	25	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	+14.676	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.079	+0.60%	25	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+17.655	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.149	+0.68%	24	Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	+24.870	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.488	+1.05%	25	Medium
13	Remy Gardner	+26.546	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.559	+1.12%	25	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+26.610	2	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.587	+1.15%	25	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+31.819	1	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.745	+1.33%	24	Medium
16	Cal Crutchlow	+88.870	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.523	+1.08%	24	Medium
17	Alex Marquez	+0.000	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.140	+1.76%	22	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		0	22	Hard / Medium	1:31.685	+0.17%	20	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	15	Hard / Medium	1:31.932	+0.44%	12	Medium
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:31.531	—	7	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	15	Hard / Medium	1:32.837	+1.43%	12	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Luca Marini	1:31.423*	—	+0.308	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:31.455	+0.032	+0.344	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	1:31.495*	+0.072	+0.319	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.501	+0.078	+0.275	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.611	+0.188	+0.193	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.650	+0.227	+0.221	Medium	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.654*	+0.231	+0.209	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:31.810	+0.387	+0.327	Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:31.817	+0.394	+0.457	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:31.818*	+0.395	+0.562	Medium	4
Remy Gardner	1:31.981*	+0.558	+1.660	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:31.998	+0.575	+0.729	Medium	6
Alex Marquez	1:32.032	+0.609	+0.356	Medium	6
Maverick Viñales	1:32.242*	+0.819	+0.292	Medium	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.299	+0.876	+0.320	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:32.504	+1.081	+0.667	Medium	8
Darryn Binder	1:33.563*	+2.140	+0.272	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	57%	2 ✓
2	Enea Bastianini	41%	3
3	Miguel Oliveira	31%	4
4	Franco Morbidelli	20%	6
5	Maverick Viñales	19%	1 ✓
6	Alex Marquez	9%	5
7	Pol Espargaro	8%	12
8	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	8
9	Remy Gardner	2%	10
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	11
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	4%	9
12	Cal Crutchlow	1%	7
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	13
14	Darryn Binder	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	35%	63%	89%	3
2	Johann Zarco	25%	51%	81%	9
3	Brad Binder	14%	49%	78%	7
4	Luca Marini	4%	32%	68%	11
5	Fabio Quartararo	4%	27%	53%	4
6	Marc Marquez	7%	23%	55%	2
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	11%	40%	10
8	Jorge Martin	2%	12%	38%	1
9	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	9%	27%	8
10	Joan Mir	2%	9%	26%	12
11	Alex Rins	3%	11%	29%	5
12	Maverick Viñales	1%	4%	18%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Takaaki Nakagami	21	24	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #30

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	25%	52%	65%	73%	26%	3
Marc Marquez	2	23%	54%	70%	83%	15%	—
Jack Miller	3	14%	41%	58%	72%	24%	—
Fabio Quartararo	4	12%	38%	58%	79%	15%	4
Alex Rins	5	8%	28%	47%	73%	21%	1
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	26%	49%	82%	10%	—
Brad Binder	7	4%	20%	39%	77%	13%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	8	2%	12%	27%	60%	28%	9
Johann Zarco	9	2%	8%	23%	65%	18%	—
Aleix Espargaro	10	1%	6%	17%	56%	24%	—
Luca Marini	11	1%	6%	16%	62%	5%	7
Joan Mir	12	1%	3%	10%	44%	22%	6
Enea Bastianini	13	1%	3%	7%	38%	19%	8
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	17%	5
Alex Marquez	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	23%	17
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	19%	10
Cal Crutchlow	17	0%	1%	2%	14%	26%	16
Marco Bezzecchi	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	17%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	21%	15
Remy Gardner	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	13%	13
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	—
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	12
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	29%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	14

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	258	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	235	−23
3	Aleix Espargaro	212	−46
4	Enea Bastianini	211	−47
5	Jack Miller	189	−69
6	Brad Binder	168	−90

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.489 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Iker Lecuona vs Miguel Oliveira (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:31.424	—	+0.105	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.432	+0.008	+0.221	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:31.516	+0.092	+0.457	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:31.572	+0.148	+0.217	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:31.612	+0.188	+0.344	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.630	+0.206	+0.275	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:31.670	+0.246	+0.562	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.712	+0.288	+0.319	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:31.730	+0.306	+0.327	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.741	+0.317	+0.209	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.44%	−0.004	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.