Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2017

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

27.10 – 29.10.2017

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	44:51.497	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.743	20
3	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+9.738	16
4	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.763	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+29.144	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+30.380	10
7	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+30.769	9
8	Jack Miller	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+35.238	8
9	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+38.053	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+39.847	6
11	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	+42.559	5
12	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+44.602	4
13	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+48.696	3
14	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+50.058	2
15	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	+50.705	1
16	Michael Van Der Mark	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+56.397	0
17	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+58.391	0
18	Tito Rabat	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+85.571	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Disqualified	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	Retired	0
DNF	Loris Baz	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Sam Lowes	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Daniel Pedrosa · 29%	Andrea Dovizioso · 15% · from P3	0.73 / 0.73	2.7 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/20

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.743 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P13 to P6.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Hector Barbera (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:58:22	Danilo Petrucci	Pit-lane start	starting warm up lap from pit lane
Race	15:01:59		Jump start	jump start
Race	15:11:24	Sam Lowes	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:13:05	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:14:04	Loris Baz	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:20:25	Karel Abraham	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:21:13	Sam Lowes	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:22:05	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:23:36	Sam Lowes	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	15:25:41		Red flag	Alex RINS black flag

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Johann Zarco (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	12	7	+5
Scott Redding	14	9	+5
Loris Baz	17	12	+5
Cal Crutchlow	10	22	−12
Valentino Rossi	4	11	−7
Daniel Pedrosa	1	5	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Danilo Petrucci	13→6	+4.5
Jorge Lorenzo	6→2	+4.0
Andrea Dovizioso	3→1	+3.1
Tito Rabat	19→18	−3.6
Cal Crutchlow	10→15	−6.4
Andrea Iannone	9→17	−9.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

27.1 °C

Air

max 28.5 °C

84%

Humidity

3.1 mm

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	57%	5
2	Alex Rins	48%	1 ✓
3	Danilo Petrucci	37%	3
4	Karel Abraham	16%	11
5	Bradley Smith	17%	6
6	Hector Barbera	5%	10
7	Scott Redding	8%	4
8	Loris Baz	4%	7
9	Pol Espargaro	2%	2 ✓
10	Tito Rabat	4%	9
11	Sam Lowes	2%	8
12	Michael Van Der Mark	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Valentino Rossi	43%	76%	93%	4
2	Johann Zarco	22%	51%	85%	2
3	Daniel Pedrosa	16%	49%	85%	1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	34%	66%	3
5	Jorge Lorenzo	4%	30%	59%	6
6	Jack Miller	6%	21%	61%	11
7	Cal Crutchlow	1%	12%	45%	10
8	Andrea Iannone	4%	14%	34%	9
9	Marc Marquez	1%	6%	27%	7
10	Maverick Viñales	0%	4%	15%	5
11	Alex Rins	0%	4%	19%	8
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	13%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Daniel Pedrosa	1	29%	60%	75%	87%	11%	5
Johann Zarco	2	21%	54%	72%	88%	10%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	3	15%	45%	66%	84%	12%	1
Valentino Rossi	4	12%	38%	61%	86%	9%	7
Maverick Viñales	5	7%	29%	52%	84%	11%	9
Jorge Lorenzo	6	5%	23%	46%	84%	9%	2
Marc Marquez	7	3%	16%	34%	74%	15%	4
Alex Rins	8	3%	12%	30%	74%	13%	—
Andrea Iannone	9	2%	7%	16%	53%	29%	17
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	5%	12%	49%	29%	15
Jack Miller	11	1%	4%	10%	44%	29%	8
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	8%	43%	20%	10
Danilo Petrucci	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	24%	6
Scott Redding	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	13%	13
Alvaro Bautista	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	21%	11
Bradley Smith	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	12%	12
Loris Baz	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	19%	—
Sam Lowes	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	32%	—
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	13%	18
Hector Barbera	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	14
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	32%	—
Michael Van Der Mark	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	16

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	269	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	236	−33
3	Maverick Viñales	219	−50
4	Valentino Rossi	188	−81
5	Daniel Pedrosa	174	−95
6	Johann Zarco	138	−131

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/19

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

3.115 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P12 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Iannone vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%