Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2017

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

10.11 – 12.11.2017

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	46:08.125	25
2	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+0.337	20
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.861	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+13.567	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+13.817	11
6	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+14.516	10
7	Jack Miller	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+17.087	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	+17.230	8
9	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	+25.942	7
10	Tito Rabat	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+27.020	6
11	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+30.835	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+35.012	4
13	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+38.076	3
14	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	+41.988	2
15	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+47.703	1
16	Loris Baz	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+47.709	0
17	Michael Van Der Mark	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+52.134	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Sam Lowes	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 28%	Daniel Pedrosa · 7% · from P5	0.90 / 0.90	2.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/30

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

0.337 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michael Van Der Mark, from P25 to P17.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:15	Pol Espargaro	Pit-lane start	starting from pit lane
Race	14:01:49	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:27		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:04:33	Mika Kallio	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:57	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:34	Scott Redding	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:31	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:47	Sam Lowes	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:38:23	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:38:51	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:25	Pol Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:46	Andrea Dovizioso	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards pit lane start penalty for rider #44

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Michael Van Der Mark	25	19	+6
Scott Redding	22	17	+5
Jack Miller	12	8	+4
Tito Rabat	14	18	−4
Alvaro Bautista	21	25	−4
Alex Rins	10	13	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	10→4	+4.6
Cal Crutchlow	16→8	+4.5
Daniel Pedrosa	5→1	+4.4
Maverick Viñales	13→12	−1.5
Andrea Iannone	3→6	−1.9
Michele Pirro	6→9	−3.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

22.0 °C

Air

max 23.0 °C

26%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Sam Lowes	56%	14
2	Aleix Espargaro	48%	2 ✓
3	Pol Espargaro	37%	1 ✓
4	Cal Crutchlow	16%	6
5	Maverick Viñales	17%	3
6	Danilo Petrucci	5%	5
7	Bradley Smith	8%	7
8	Tito Rabat	3%	4
9	Alvaro Bautista	3%	11
10	Mika Kallio	3%	9
11	Karel Abraham	2%	8
12	Hector Barbera	0%	10
13	Scott Redding	0%	12
14	Loris Baz	0%	13
15	Michael Van Der Mark	0%	15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	43%	75%	93%	1
2	Johann Zarco	22%	52%	85%	2
3	Andrea Iannone	17%	49%	85%	3
4	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	35%	67%	4
5	Daniel Pedrosa	3%	30%	60%	5
6	Alex Rins	6%	21%	60%	10
7	Michele Pirro	1%	12%	45%	6
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	14%	33%	9
9	Jack Miller	1%	6%	26%	12
10	Valentino Rossi	0%	3%	16%	7
11	Aleix Espargaro	0%	3%	18%	8
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	13%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	28%	58%	73%	83%	15%	3
Johann Zarco	2	22%	55%	73%	89%	9%	2
Andrea Iannone	3	12%	36%	52%	68%	29%	6
Jorge Lorenzo	4	11%	39%	63%	87%	8%	—
Daniel Pedrosa	5	7%	29%	52%	83%	11%	1
Michele Pirro	6	5%	22%	41%	73%	19%	9
Valentino Rossi	7	4%	19%	39%	79%	9%	5
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	12%	27%	62%	23%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	9	3%	9%	22%	68%	12%	—
Alex Rins	10	2%	7%	16%	59%	17%	4
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	11%	51%	20%	—
Jack Miller	12	1%	3%	8%	39%	29%	7
Maverick Viñales	13	0%	3%	7%	41%	10%	12
Tito Rabat	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	13%	10
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	24%	13
Cal Crutchlow	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	29%	8
Bradley Smith	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	12%	11
Karel Abraham	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	32%	14
Mika Kallio	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	31%	—
Hector Barbera	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	15%	15
Alvaro Bautista	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	—
Scott Redding	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	—
Loris Baz	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	16
Sam Lowes	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	35%	—
Michael Van Der Mark	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	17

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	282	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	261	−21
3	Maverick Viñales	226	−56
4	Valentino Rossi	197	−85
5	Daniel Pedrosa	185	−97
6	Johann Zarco	154	−128

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

1.185 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P18 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Pol Espargaro (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%