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Round 2 of 18 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2017

Termas de Río Hondo Argentina

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014
07.04 – 09.04.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP41:45.06025
2Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.91520
3Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+3.75416
4Alvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+6.52313
5Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+15.50411
6Jonas FolgerYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+18.24110
7Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+20.0469
8Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+25.4808
9Jack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+25.6657
10Karel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+26.4036
11Loris BazDucatiReale Avintia Racing+26.9525
12Tito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+41.8754
13Hector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia Racing+42.7703
14Pol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+43.0852
15Bradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+43.4521
16Andrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+46.2190
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFAlex RinsSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARRetired0
DNFAndrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFDaniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJorge LorenzoDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFSam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 32%Maverick Viñales · 6% · from P60.61 / 0.613.6 / 3.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

60
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
0/25
Laps led by the winner
2.915 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race16:01:08Jorge LorenzoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:05:50Andrea IannoneJump startJump start
Race16:05:51Andrea IannoneRide throughRide through penalty
Race16:06:10Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:09:17Ride throughRide through
Race16:12:54Alex RinsCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:19:40Sam LowesRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race16:20:04Alex RinsRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race16:22:59Daniel PedrosaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:25:09Andrea DoviziosoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:25:09Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
21.6 °C
Air
max 22.2 °C
50%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
11 km/h
Wind
gusts 34 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 07.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:40.356—19321.0
2Danilo Petrucci01:40.562+0.20618320.0
3Johann Zarco01:40.574+0.21820317.8
4Jonas Folger01:40.660+0.30420316.1
5Karel Abraham01:40.678+0.32218319.6
6Andrea Iannone01:40.701+0.34518316.8
7Andrea Dovizioso01:40.716+0.36016323.3
8Hector Barbera01:40.853+0.49719324.1
9Jack Miller01:40.867+0.51120317.9
10Alvaro Bautista01:40.936+0.58017324.9
11Marc Marquez01:40.958+0.60218316.9
12Aleix Espargaro01:40.982+0.62617317.3
13Scott Redding01:41.062+0.70618319.8
14Cal Crutchlow01:41.073+0.71717316.6
15Jorge Lorenzo01:41.128+0.77219324.8
16Valentino Rossi01:41.311+0.95519318.4
17Alex Rins01:41.694+1.33819317.5
18Tito Rabat01:41.703+1.34718316.9
19Daniel Pedrosa01:41.781+1.42517315.6
20Pol Espargaro01:41.829+1.47316314.8
21Loris Baz01:41.867+1.51116313.2
22Bradley Smith01:42.224+1.86819312.7
23Sam Lowes01:42.237+1.88117315.3
FP2 · 07.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:39.477—20321.0
2Marc Marquez01:39.778+0.30119318.2
3Karel Abraham01:39.880+0.40317322.7
4Alvaro Bautista01:39.922+0.44520327.7
5Danilo Petrucci01:39.960+0.48320321.5
6Loris Baz01:40.120+0.64320322.1
7Cal Crutchlow01:40.124+0.64718318.0
8Jonas Folger01:40.157+0.68020319.0
9Aleix Espargaro01:40.175+0.69818321.7
10Andrea Iannone01:40.250+0.77318318.4
11Scott Redding01:40.338+0.86117323.7
12Johann Zarco01:40.340+0.86320319.5
13Daniel Pedrosa01:40.345+0.86815319.6
14Andrea Dovizioso01:40.399+0.92216329.3
15Hector Barbera01:40.431+0.95414326.4
16Valentino Rossi01:40.531+1.05419321.9
17Jack Miller01:40.588+1.11119318.5
18Jorge Lorenzo01:40.599+1.12220327.2
19Tito Rabat01:40.908+1.43118319.9
20Alex Rins01:41.083+1.60618317.8
21Pol Espargaro01:41.632+2.15520318.5
22Bradley Smith01:42.074+2.59719316.6
23Sam Lowes01:42.179+2.70218316.5
FP3 · 08.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Cal Crutchlow01:39.772—11320.5
2Maverick Viñales01:39.867+0.09511321.0
3Daniel Pedrosa01:40.292+0.5208318.9
4Scott Redding01:40.321+0.54910325.3
5Marc Marquez01:40.394+0.62210317.7
6Loris Baz01:40.397+0.62510321.5
7Jack Miller01:40.514+0.74211321.4
8Andrea Dovizioso01:40.551+0.7799323.8
9Andrea Iannone01:40.590+0.81810318.9
10Aleix Espargaro01:40.624+0.8529318.1
11Alvaro Bautista01:40.638+0.8668326.6
12Valentino Rossi01:40.690+0.91812322.1
13Danilo Petrucci01:40.700+0.92811325.8
14Jorge Lorenzo01:40.718+0.94610326.0
15Jonas Folger01:40.734+0.9627317.2
16Karel Abraham01:40.742+0.9709321.7
17Johann Zarco01:40.943+1.17110321.5
18Alex Rins01:41.019+1.24710316.7
19Tito Rabat01:41.082+1.31010317.7
20Pol Espargaro01:41.350+1.57811318.4
21Sam Lowes01:41.616+1.8449315.0
22Hector Barbera01:41.669+1.89710325.6
23Bradley Smith01:42.008+2.23611316.4
FP4 · 08.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:50.042—13311.2
2Cal Crutchlow01:50.318+0.2769311.7
3Andrea Dovizioso01:50.361+0.3199311.5
4Danilo Petrucci01:50.623+0.58110310.2
5Jack Miller01:50.939+0.8978306.7
6Jonas Folger01:50.962+0.92010303.9
7Daniel Pedrosa01:51.049+1.0079290.2
8Maverick Viñales01:51.062+1.02010307.0
9Loris Baz01:51.083+1.0419304.3
10Johann Zarco01:51.089+1.04712310.7
11Scott Redding01:51.169+1.12711314.9
12Andrea Iannone01:51.328+1.2869302.9
13Valentino Rossi01:51.392+1.35010311.7
14Alvaro Bautista01:51.462+1.42010309.5
15Hector Barbera01:51.498+1.4568310.6
16Jorge Lorenzo01:51.551+1.50913308.6
17Pol Espargaro01:51.665+1.62310307.7
18Alex Rins01:51.784+1.74212311.0
19Karel Abraham01:51.861+1.8197305.1
20Aleix Espargaro01:52.054+2.0129308.4
21Sam Lowes01:52.483+2.44110305.5
22Tito Rabat01:52.563+2.5219304.1
23Bradley Smith01:53.588+3.5469285.7
Q1 · 08.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:49.235—8305.7
2Valentino Rossi01:49.421+0.1867312.2
3Andrea Dovizioso01:49.488+0.2537306.2
4Johann Zarco01:49.916+0.6818311.1
5Scott Redding01:50.048+0.8136313.8
6Jorge Lorenzo01:50.310+1.0757310.2
7Jack Miller01:50.319+1.0846310.8
8Pol Espargaro01:50.673+1.4388310.8
9Bradley Smith01:50.676+1.4418304.7
10Tito Rabat01:50.910+1.6758311.9
11Hector Barbera01:51.058+1.8237313.1
12Sam Lowes01:51.199+1.9647306.3
13Alex Rins01:52.340+3.1058307.8
Q2 · 08.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.512—7314.0
2Karel Abraham01:48.275+0.7637303.6
3Cal Crutchlow01:48.278+0.7668311.7
4Danilo Petrucci01:48.908+1.3968314.4
5Daniel Pedrosa01:49.008+1.4968302.8
6Maverick Viñales01:49.218+1.7067305.6
7Valentino Rossi01:49.272+1.7608309.9
8Aleix Espargaro01:49.323+1.8117307.4
9Loris Baz01:49.630+2.1187306.3
10Alvaro Bautista01:49.724+2.2128311.7
11Jonas Folger01:49.825+2.3137305.7
12Andrea Iannone01:50.725+3.2137307.3
Warm Up · 09.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:39.620—12327.8
2Marc Marquez01:39.735+0.11511328.9
3Cal Crutchlow01:39.802+0.18211325.8
4Alvaro Bautista01:39.868+0.24812331.6
5Scott Redding01:39.964+0.34410332.7
6Andrea Iannone01:39.989+0.36911329.8
7Aleix Espargaro01:40.148+0.52811326.4
8Daniel Pedrosa01:40.166+0.54611326.4
9Jonas Folger01:40.202+0.58212327.7
10Danilo Petrucci01:40.288+0.66812334.4
11Johann Zarco01:40.308+0.68812328.4
12Valentino Rossi01:40.365+0.74512328.9
13Hector Barbera01:40.386+0.76612334.4
14Loris Baz01:40.512+0.89212323.6
15Jorge Lorenzo01:40.547+0.92712330.9
16Andrea Dovizioso01:40.561+0.94112332.8
17Jack Miller01:40.620+1.00010325.7
18Alex Rins01:40.667+1.04712327.1
19Pol Espargaro01:41.430+1.81011325.6
20Tito Rabat01:41.434+1.81411326.8
21Sam Lowes01:41.444+1.82412323.5
22Karel Abraham01:41.726+2.1069328.5
23Bradley Smith01:41.928+2.30812322.5
Race · 09.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Maverick Viñales41:45.0602525
2Valentino Rossi+2.9152025
3Cal Crutchlow+3.7541625
4Alvaro Bautista+6.5231325
5Johann Zarco+15.5041125
6Jonas Folger+18.2411025
7Danilo Petrucci+20.046925
8Scott Redding+25.480825
9Jack Miller+25.665725
10Karel Abraham+26.403625
11Loris Baz+26.952525
12Tito Rabat+41.875425
13Hector Barbera+42.770325
14Pol Espargaro+43.085225
15Bradley Smith+43.452125
16Andrea Iannone+46.219025
RetiredAleix Espargaro014
RetiredAlex Rins011
RetiredAndrea Dovizioso014
RetiredDaniel Pedrosa013
RetiredJorge Lorenzo00
RetiredMarc Marquez03
RetiredSam Lowes011

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez132%62%75%84%14%—
Karel Abraham218%42%55%66%33%10
Cal Crutchlow313%38%54%67%30%3
Danilo Petrucci411%34%53%72%24%7
Daniel Pedrosa59%34%56%85%9%—
Maverick Viñales66%26%49%81%10%1
Valentino Rossi75%21%42%81%9%2
Aleix Espargaro83%14%31%69%20%—
Loris Baz92%8%22%64%21%11
Alvaro Bautista101%6%17%58%19%4
Jonas Folger111%5%14%56%16%6
Andrea Iannone121%4%10%41%29%16
Andrea Dovizioso131%3%8%44%12%—
Johann Zarco140%1%4%29%30%5
Scott Redding150%1%4%30%13%8
Jorge Lorenzo160%1%3%25%8%—
Jack Miller170%0%2%13%32%9
Pol Espargaro180%0%1%11%19%14
Bradley Smith190%0%1%9%12%15
Tito Rabat200%0%1%6%13%12
Hector Barbera210%0%0%4%14%13
Sam Lowes220%0%0%3%16%—
Alex Rins230%0%0%2%16%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · BezzecchiS3 · M. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100
Position index
60%
Pole wins
60%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

139
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
18/20
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
7.679 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Eugene Laverty, from P17 to P4.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Pol Espargaro (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
  • 2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2016Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20252/2010%
20230/170%
20224/2417%
20195/2223%
20183/2413%
20177/2330%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet