Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2016

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

21.10 – 23.10.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	40:48.543	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+4.218	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.309	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+9.157	13
5	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+14.299	11
6	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+20.125	10
7	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+28.369	9
8	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+28.781	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+28.792	7
10	Jack Miller	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+28.815	6
11	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+31.809	5
12	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+47.734	4
13	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+47.749	3
14	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+54.311	2
15	Mike Jones	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+55.875	1
16	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+66.395	0
17	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+82.604	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30%	Cal Crutchlow · 19% · from P2	0.46 / 0.46	3.6 / 3.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/27

Laps led by the winner

Cal Crutchlow

4.218 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P15 to P2.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Yonny Hernandez (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:01:07	Loris Baz	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	16:01:48		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:02:59	Loris Baz	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	16:14:46	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:34:25	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:38:23	Hector Barbera	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:39:29	Nicky Hayden	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Lorenzo	12	8	+4
Alvaro Bautista	18	16	+2
Maverick Viñales	13	11	+2
Hector Barbera	10	14	−4
Bradley Smith	14	18	−4
Nicky Hayden	7	9	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	15→2	+9.8
Maverick Viñales	13→3	+7.5
Andrea Dovizioso	9→4	+4.0
Stefan Bradl	8→11	−3.7
Jack Miller	5→10	−4.6
Nicky Hayden	7→17	−10.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

Dry

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.957	—	8	300.1
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.010	+0.053	16	309.8
3	Jack Miller	01:41.457	+0.500	12	315.2
4	Marc Marquez	01:41.511	+0.554	13	300.9
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.569	+0.612	13	314.6
6	Maverick Viñales	01:41.813	+0.856	10	317.4
7	Pol Espargaro	01:42.465	+1.508	15	311.6
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.956	+1.999	15	295.0
9	Nicky Hayden	01:43.012	+2.055	15	304.2
10	Stefan Bradl	01:43.070	+2.113	12	290.0
11	Yonny Hernandez	01:43.132	+2.175	16	291.8
12	Scott Redding	01:43.314	+2.357	13	287.0
13	Mike Jones	01:43.483	+2.526	16	289.2
14	Loris Baz	01:44.176	+3.219	10	291.1
15	Tito Rabat	01:44.178	+3.221	17	297.1
16	Eugene Laverty	01:44.181	+3.224	13	291.8
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.551	+3.594	14	300.5
18	Hector Barbera	01:44.792	+3.835	19	304.0
19	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.651	+4.694	9	286.7
20	Valentino Rossi	01:47.225	+6.268	14	308.2
—	Bradley Smith	01:49.008	+8.051	7	263.7

FP2 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Hector Barbera	01:51.958	—	3	281.1
2	Mike Jones	01:54.018	+2.060	3	278.4
3	Tito Rabat	01:55.693	+3.735	2	259.8
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.722	+3.764	2	277.3
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.112	+6.154	3	279.0
6	Valentino Rossi	01:58.412	+6.454	2	244.4
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		—	0	0.0
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0
Retired	Bradley Smith		—	0	0.0
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		—	0	0.0
Retired	Eugene Laverty		—	0	0.0
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0
Retired	Loris Baz		—	0	0.0
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0
Retired	Maverick Viñales		—	0	0.0
Retired	Nicky Hayden		—	0	0.0
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0
Retired	Scott Redding		—	0	0.0
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:33.155	—	9	320.7
2	Jack Miller	01:33.209	+0.054	15	326.2
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.399	+1.244	12	321.5
4	Pol Espargaro	01:34.650	+1.495	11	319.5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.721	+1.566	12	318.1
6	Scott Redding	01:34.852	+1.697	11	310.8
7	Stefan Bradl	01:34.914	+1.759	12	316.6
8	Nicky Hayden	01:35.189	+2.034	14	322.2
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:35.269	+2.114	11	321.8
10	Hector Barbera	01:35.300	+2.145	12	319.3
11	Maverick Viñales	01:35.364	+2.209	13	320.8
12	Valentino Rossi	01:35.463	+2.308	15	319.8
13	Eugene Laverty	01:35.736	+2.581	14	317.9
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:36.029	+2.874	11	321.4
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:36.189	+3.034	12	317.9
16	Bradley Smith	01:36.351	+3.196	9	316.9
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:36.447	+3.292	11	318.6
18	Mike Jones	01:36.756	+3.601	15	313.8
19	Loris Baz	01:37.193	+4.038	17	321.1
20	Tito Rabat	01:38.012	+4.857	9	288.2
21	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.318	+5.163	22	307.2

FP4 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Nicky Hayden	01:36.810	—	12	311.8
2	Marc Marquez	01:40.031	+3.221	10	302.9
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.971	+4.161	8	306.5
4	Loris Baz	01:40.973	+4.163	11	299.0
5	Jack Miller	01:41.092	+4.282	2	301.0
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.199	+4.389	10	301.8
7	Scott Redding	01:41.482	+4.672	14	290.4
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.648	+4.838	9	318.6
9	Bradley Smith	01:41.825	+5.015	10	299.3
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.880	+5.070	14	311.6
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:42.112	+5.302	13	299.1
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:42.152	+5.342	6	288.4
13	Pol Espargaro	01:42.225	+5.415	12	309.4
14	Valentino Rossi	01:42.226	+5.416	14	309.2
15	Hector Barbera	01:42.916	+6.106	13	305.3
16	Stefan Bradl	01:43.019	+6.209	9	281.6
17	Mike Jones	01:43.048	+6.238	14	290.7
—	Alvaro Bautista	01:44.411	+7.601	12	285.1
—	Eugene Laverty	01:43.933	+7.123	10	292.5
—	Maverick Viñales	01:43.821	+7.011	10	316.8
—	Tito Rabat	01:44.545	+7.735	15	293.0

Q1 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.467	—	8	308.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.452	+1.985	8	304.6
3	Maverick Viñales	01:40.744	+2.277	8	309.9
4	Bradley Smith	01:41.129	+2.662	4	298.6
5	Valentino Rossi	01:41.368	+2.901	8	307.8
6	Eugene Laverty	01:41.532	+3.065	8	301.0
7	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.766	+3.299	7	305.9
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.850	+3.383	9	297.4
9	Mike Jones	01:42.261	+3.794	8	295.8
10	Loris Baz	01:43.128	+4.661	6	302.8
11	Tito Rabat	01:44.096	+5.629	9	292.0

Q2 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.189	—	8	324.8
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.981	+0.792	8	326.8
3	Pol Espargaro	01:31.107	+0.918	9	326.0
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.673	+1.484	9	321.3
5	Jack Miller	01:31.754	+1.565	8	325.3
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.420	+2.231	8	321.8
7	Nicky Hayden	01:32.944	+2.755	8	318.6
8	Stefan Bradl	01:33.015	+2.826	8	319.5
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.090	+2.901	7	330.3
10	Hector Barbera	01:33.914	+3.725	9	332.7
11	Scott Redding	01:34.682	+4.493	7	322.0
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:36.840	+6.651	9	320.1

Warm Up · 23.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.897	—	14	329.2
2	Valentino Rossi	01:29.987	+0.090	16	329.6
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.059	+0.162	17	330.1
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.269	+0.372	17	328.8
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.427	+0.530	13	327.1
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.454	+0.557	16	331.3
7	Pol Espargaro	01:30.509	+0.612	17	331.4
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.534	+0.637	15	336.5
9	Jack Miller	01:30.907	+1.010	19	329.2
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.385	+1.488	16	332.4
11	Nicky Hayden	01:31.444	+1.547	17	327.8
12	Hector Barbera	01:31.492	+1.595	17	334.0
13	Scott Redding	01:31.712	+1.815	16	326.6
14	Bradley Smith	01:31.787	+1.890	15	327.6
15	Loris Baz	01:31.794	+1.897	16	323.3
16	Eugene Laverty	01:32.026	+2.129	14	329.3
17	Stefan Bradl	01:32.043	+2.146	16	325.1
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:32.220	+2.323	16	324.9
19	Mike Jones	01:32.479	+2.582	19	330.5
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.261	+3.364	16	323.8
21	Tito Rabat	01:33.905	+4.008	18	323.5

Race · 23.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Cal Crutchlow	40:48.543	25	27
2	Valentino Rossi	+4.218	20	27
3	Maverick Viñales	+5.309	16	27
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+9.157	13	27
5	Pol Espargaro	+14.299	11	27
6	Jorge Lorenzo	+20.125	10	27
7	Scott Redding	+28.369	9	27
8	Bradley Smith	+28.781	8	27
9	Danilo Petrucci	+28.792	7	27
10	Jack Miller	+28.815	6	27
11	Stefan Bradl	+31.809	5	27
12	Alvaro Bautista	+47.734	4	27
13	Yonny Hernandez	+47.749	3	27
14	Eugene Laverty	+54.311	2	27
15	Mike Jones	+55.875	1	27
16	Tito Rabat	+66.395	0	27
17	Nicky Hayden	+82.604	0	27
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	22
Retired	Hector Barbera		0	24
Retired	Loris Baz		0	0
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	9

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	62%	3
2	Valentino Rossi	52%	5
3	Eugene Laverty	41%	6
4	Alvaro Bautista	15%	8
5	Cal Crutchlow	15%	1 ✓
6	Bradley Smith	4%	4
7	Yonny Hernandez	9%	7
8	Mike Jones	3%	9
9	Loris Baz	0%	10
10	Tito Rabat	0%	11
11	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	2 ✓

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	46%	78%	96%	1
2	Jack Miller	22%	54%	87%	5
3	Aleix Espargaro	16%	50%	87%	4
4	Pol Espargaro	4%	35%	66%	3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	34%	66%	9
6	Scott Redding	4%	18%	59%	11
7	Stefan Bradl	2%	13%	46%	8
8	Nicky Hayden	2%	10%	32%	7
9	Danilo Petrucci	2%	3%	22%	6
10	Hector Barbera	0%	3%	15%	10
11	Cal Crutchlow	0%	0%	12%	2
12	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	2%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	61%	74%	84%	14%	—
Cal Crutchlow	2	19%	46%	59%	70%	28%	1
Pol Espargaro	3	15%	46%	63%	78%	20%	5
Aleix Espargaro	4	12%	37%	56%	76%	19%	—
Jack Miller	5	6%	22%	40%	59%	36%	10
Danilo Petrucci	6	5%	22%	42%	69%	24%	9
Nicky Hayden	7	5%	19%	40%	75%	14%	17
Stefan Bradl	8	3%	14%	31%	67%	22%	11
Andrea Dovizioso	9	2%	11%	26%	71%	13%	4
Hector Barbera	10	1%	7%	19%	63%	14%	—
Scott Redding	11	1%	5%	15%	57%	14%	7
Jorge Lorenzo	12	1%	3%	11%	54%	8%	6
Maverick Viñales	13	0%	2%	8%	45%	11%	3
Bradley Smith	14	0%	2%	6%	36%	13%	8
Valentino Rossi	15	0%	1%	4%	32%	9%	2
Eugene Laverty	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	13%	14
Yonny Hernandez	17	0%	0%	2%	13%	27%	13
Alvaro Bautista	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	19%	12
Mike Jones	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	16%	15
Loris Baz	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	21%	—
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	1%	5%	16%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	273	—
2	Valentino Rossi	196	−77
3	Jorge Lorenzo	182	−91
4	Maverick Viñales	165	−108
5	Daniel Pedrosa	155	−118
6	Andrea Dovizioso	124	−149

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.249 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P18 to P14.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Daniel Pedrosa (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet