Round 3 of 18 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2016

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

08.04 – 10.04.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	43:57.945	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+6.107	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.947	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+18.422	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+20.711	11
6	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+28.961	10
7	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+32.112	9
8	Michele Pirro	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+32.757	8
9	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+34.592	7
10	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+40.211	6
11	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+45.423	5
12	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+47.127	4
13	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+47.426	3
14	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+51.190	2
15	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+72.929	1
16	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	+79.252	0
17	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+88.036	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.55 / 0.55	3.3 / 3.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

21/21

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

6.107 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michele Pirro, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Eugene Laverty vs Tito Rabat (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:03:44	Loris Baz	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:06		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:05:47	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:01	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:01	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:01	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:01	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:47	Daniel Pedrosa	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #29

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alvaro Bautista	19	14	+5
Aleix Espargaro	9	4	+5
Andrea Dovizioso	6	2	+4
Maverick Viñales	4	10	−6
Hector Barbera	14	19	−5
Cal Crutchlow	5	9	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Michele Pirro	17→8	+5.1
Andrea Iannone	7→3	+3.7
Pol Espargaro	13→7	+3.5
Loris Baz	12→15	−5.1
Bradley Smith	11→17	−7.7
Cal Crutchlow	5→16	−10.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

Dry

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 08.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.953	—	17	338.8
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:05.208	+0.255	15	337.7
3	Andrea Iannone	02:05.570	+0.617	14	344.2
4	Hector Barbera	02:05.682	+0.729	15	338.1
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:06.032	+1.079	14	345.2
6	Scott Redding	02:06.224	+1.271	16	341.4
7	Valentino Rossi	02:06.252	+1.299	16	338.9
8	Yonny Hernandez	02:06.264	+1.311	13	340.0
9	Maverick Viñales	02:06.367	+1.414	15	340.9
10	Daniel Pedrosa	02:06.450	+1.497	16	340.9
11	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.482	+1.529	13	336.4
12	Pol Espargaro	02:06.581	+1.628	16	340.2
13	Cal Crutchlow	02:06.772	+1.819	15	338.3
14	Stefan Bradl	02:07.135	+2.182	14	334.0
15	Tito Rabat	02:07.189	+2.236	18	335.7
16	Bradley Smith	02:07.259	+2.306	13	338.9
17	Eugene Laverty	02:07.261	+2.308	15	343.1
18	Alvaro Bautista	02:07.449	+2.496	16	336.0
19	Loris Baz	02:07.506	+2.553	14	335.0
20	Michele Pirro	02:07.895	+2.942	13	338.3
21	Jack Miller	02:07.897	+2.944	7	338.6

FP2 · 08.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.034	—	14	341.1
2	Andrea Iannone	02:04.740	+0.706	14	341.9
3	Maverick Viñales	02:04.895	+0.861	16	337.7
4	Scott Redding	02:04.899	+0.865	14	342.2
5	Jorge Lorenzo	02:04.901	+0.867	16	337.0
6	Valentino Rossi	02:04.974	+0.940	16	339.9
7	Loris Baz	02:05.190	+1.156	13	336.9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	02:05.194	+1.160	16	341.7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.195	+1.161	11	341.7
10	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.393	+1.359	15	336.9
11	Hector Barbera	02:05.488	+1.454	15	339.9
12	Michele Pirro	02:05.597	+1.563	15	339.8
13	Pol Espargaro	02:05.616	+1.582	15	337.6
14	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.662	+1.628	14	337.0
15	Yonny Hernandez	02:05.761	+1.727	14	340.2
16	Eugene Laverty	02:05.891	+1.857	13	338.4
17	Stefan Bradl	02:05.922	+1.888	14	336.8
18	Alvaro Bautista	02:06.157	+2.123	16	339.5
19	Bradley Smith	02:06.479	+2.445	17	337.6
20	Jack Miller	02:06.777	+2.743	11	338.7
21	Tito Rabat	02:07.044	+3.010	17	335.7

FP3 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:03.741	—	17	336.1
2	Andrea Iannone	02:03.937	+0.196	16	339.3
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:04.331	+0.590	16	331.7
4	Maverick Viñales	02:04.336	+0.595	16	332.8
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:04.408	+0.667	15	331.2
6	Valentino Rossi	02:04.450	+0.709	17	334.1
7	Daniel Pedrosa	02:04.524	+0.783	16	336.6
8	Loris Baz	02:04.576	+0.835	15	329.9
9	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.741	+1.000	12	338.6
10	Scott Redding	02:04.769	+1.028	15	333.4
11	Pol Espargaro	02:04.783	+1.042	17	333.4
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.061	+1.320	16	329.6
13	Hector Barbera	02:05.207	+1.466	13	333.4
14	Michele Pirro	02:05.288	+1.547	15	336.0
15	Yonny Hernandez	02:05.378	+1.637	14	336.4
16	Stefan Bradl	02:05.616	+1.875	15	327.4
17	Jack Miller	02:05.684	+1.943	9	333.1
18	Bradley Smith	02:05.962	+2.221	16	333.7
19	Eugene Laverty	02:06.179	+2.438	14	335.7
20	Tito Rabat	02:06.444	+2.703	19	327.1
21	Alvaro Bautista	02:06.488	+2.747	16	331.6

FP4 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.309	—	12	335.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:04.867	+0.558	9	332.6
3	Valentino Rossi	02:04.870	+0.561	12	334.5
4	Scott Redding	02:05.193	+0.884	12	334.5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.559	+1.250	9	340.4
6	Maverick Viñales	02:05.630	+1.321	12	335.1
7	Daniel Pedrosa	02:05.669	+1.360	12	336.9
8	Andrea Iannone	02:05.747	+1.438	10	340.6
9	Hector Barbera	02:05.947	+1.638	10	335.4
10	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.986	+1.677	12	332.1
11	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.028	+1.719	11	329.7
12	Bradley Smith	02:06.032	+1.723	11	335.6
13	Michele Pirro	02:06.120	+1.811	11	337.2
14	Stefan Bradl	02:06.177	+1.868	11	329.8
15	Pol Espargaro	02:06.196	+1.887	11	333.9
16	Alvaro Bautista	02:06.736	+2.427	12	332.2
17	Loris Baz	02:06.954	+2.645	11	331.0
18	Eugene Laverty	02:07.169	+2.860	10	339.1
19	Yonny Hernandez	02:07.196	+2.887	9	330.2
20	Tito Rabat	02:07.863	+3.554	12	329.0
21	Jack Miller	02:09.520	+5.211	3	329.3

Q1 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Bradley Smith	02:04.740	—	6	333.2
2	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.849	+0.109	7	330.2
3	Pol Espargaro	02:04.867	+0.127	6	334.6
4	Hector Barbera	02:04.944	+0.204	7	338.4
5	Eugene Laverty	02:05.425	+0.685	6	337.2
6	Stefan Bradl	02:05.625	+0.885	6	328.2
7	Michele Pirro	02:05.702	+0.962	5	337.8
8	Yonny Hernandez	02:06.029	+1.289	6	333.4
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:06.049	+1.309	7	334.4
10	Tito Rabat	02:06.562	+1.822	6	331.6
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0

Q2 · 09.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:03.188	—	7	336.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:03.257	+0.069	7	334.2
3	Valentino Rossi	02:03.644	+0.456	7	338.5
4	Andrea Iannone	02:03.913	+0.725	7	342.3
5	Maverick Viñales	02:04.247	+1.059	7	336.3
6	Cal Crutchlow	02:04.265	+1.077	7	333.7
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.339	+1.151	6	342.8
8	Daniel Pedrosa	02:04.379	+1.191	7	337.9
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.408	+1.220	5	332.1
10	Scott Redding	02:04.485	+1.297	7	338.4
11	Bradley Smith	02:04.988	+1.800	7	338.4
12	Loris Baz	02:05.159	+1.971	7	333.5

Warm Up · 10.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	02:04.421	—	9	335.0
2	Marc Marquez	02:04.627	+0.206	9	330.7
3	Valentino Rossi	02:04.751	+0.330	10	333.8
4	Maverick Viñales	02:05.251	+0.830	9	328.7
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.283	+0.862	9	333.9
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.507	+1.086	8	327.6
7	Jorge Lorenzo	02:05.554	+1.133	6	326.5
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.660	+1.239	9	326.1
9	Bradley Smith	02:05.700	+1.279	10	328.7
10	Yonny Hernandez	02:05.823	+1.402	10	331.4
11	Scott Redding	02:05.859	+1.438	7	326.3
12	Loris Baz	02:05.878	+1.457	10	326.5
13	Daniel Pedrosa	02:05.890	+1.469	9	331.5
14	Stefan Bradl	02:05.894	+1.473	10	325.3
15	Hector Barbera	02:06.061	+1.640	8	330.8
16	Pol Espargaro	02:06.071	+1.650	8	327.0
17	Michele Pirro	02:06.246	+1.825	9	331.0
18	Alvaro Bautista	02:06.418	+1.997	10	327.3
19	Eugene Laverty	02:07.240	+2.819	9	329.2
20	Tito Rabat	02:07.273	+2.852	9	323.8
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0

Race · 10.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	43:57.945	25	21
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+6.107	20	21
3	Andrea Iannone	+10.947	16	21
4	Maverick Viñales	+18.422	13	21
5	Aleix Espargaro	+20.711	11	21
6	Scott Redding	+28.961	10	21
7	Pol Espargaro	+32.112	9	21
8	Michele Pirro	+32.757	8	21
9	Hector Barbera	+34.592	7	21
10	Stefan Bradl	+40.211	6	21
11	Alvaro Bautista	+45.423	5	21
12	Eugene Laverty	+47.127	4	21
13	Tito Rabat	+47.426	3	21
14	Yonny Hernandez	+51.190	2	21
15	Loris Baz	+72.929	1	21
16	Cal Crutchlow	+79.252	0	21
17	Bradley Smith	+88.036	0	21
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	6
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	11
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	2

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	69%	3
2	Aleix Espargaro	51%	2 ✓
3	Hector Barbera	38%	4
4	Michele Pirro	18%	7
5	Yonny Hernandez	13%	8
6	Stefan Bradl	4%	6
7	Eugene Laverty	7%	5
8	Bradley Smith	0%	1 ✓
9	Alvaro Bautista	0%	9
10	Tito Rabat	0%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	47%	76%	95%	1
2	Andrea Iannone	22%	56%	86%	4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	18%	53%	91%	2
4	Maverick Viñales	4%	33%	67%	5
5	Cal Crutchlow	2%	36%	71%	6
6	Valentino Rossi	6%	18%	56%	3
7	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	13%	49%	8
8	Loris Baz	0%	9%	27%	12
9	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	2%	18%	7
10	Scott Redding	0%	2%	16%	10
11	Aleix Espargaro	0%	0%	11%	9
12	Bradley Smith	0%	2%	15%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Jack Miller	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Andrea Iannone	4	7	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #29

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	27%	58%	72%	82%	16%	1
Jorge Lorenzo	2	23%	56%	74%	90%	7%	2
Valentino Rossi	3	16%	51%	72%	90%	7%	—
Maverick Viñales	4	11%	37%	60%	81%	16%	4
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	23%	40%	64%	30%	16
Andrea Dovizioso	6	6%	23%	46%	81%	10%	—
Andrea Iannone	7	3%	14%	31%	65%	27%	3
Daniel Pedrosa	8	3%	14%	31%	76%	9%	—
Aleix Espargaro	9	1%	7%	20%	65%	17%	5
Scott Redding	10	1%	5%	16%	62%	14%	6
Bradley Smith	11	1%	4%	13%	59%	10%	17
Loris Baz	12	1%	3%	8%	42%	25%	15
Pol Espargaro	13	0%	2%	6%	36%	23%	7
Hector Barbera	14	0%	1%	4%	32%	15%	9
Eugene Laverty	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	16%	12
Stefan Bradl	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	24%	10
Michele Pirro	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	21%	8
Yonny Hernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	30%	14
Alvaro Bautista	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	11
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	14%	13
Jack Miller	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	35%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	41	—
2	Valentino Rossi	33	−8
3	Daniel Pedrosa	27	−14
4	Jorge Lorenzo	25	−16
5	Andrea Dovizioso	23	−18
6	Pol Espargaro	19	−22

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/21

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.354 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P22 to P13.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet