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Round 4 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2015

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
01.05 – 03.05.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP44:57.24625
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+5.57620
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+11.58616
4Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+22.72713
5Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+26.62011
6Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+27.02110
7Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+35.4459
8Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+36.2968
9Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+41.9337
10Yonny HernandezDucatiPramac Racing+51.0726
11Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+51.6745
12Danilo PetrucciDucatiPramac Racing+52.4214
13Scott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+53.0523
14Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+53.2002
15Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+57.3441
16Stefan BradlYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward Racing+59.0180
17Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+61.5060
18Eugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP Team+63.1630
19Marco MelandriApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+66.8950
20Jack MillerHondaCWM LCR Honda+74.1820
21Alex De AngelisARTOcto IodaRacing Team+86.8320
22Mike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia Racing+0.0000
DNFHiroshi AoyamaHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFKarel AbrahamHondaAB MotoracingRetired0
DNFLoris BazYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 33% ✓Jorge Lorenzo · 33% · from P10.96 / 0.962.0 / 1.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

66
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
5.576 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P14 to P11.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Scott Redding (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:03Jump startJump start
Race14:06:28Mike Di MeglioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:07:32Karel AbrahamCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:16:22Loris BazCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:36Hiroshi AoyamaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
29.3 °C
Air
max 29.8 °C
27%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
5 km/h
Wind
gusts 18 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:39.174—18288.3
2Aleix Espargaro01:39.223+0.04915281.6
3Cal Crutchlow01:39.737+0.56317285.8
4Andrea Dovizioso01:39.742+0.56815291.4
5Pol Espargaro01:39.871+0.69719290.9
6Valentino Rossi01:39.872+0.69819287.8
7Maverick Viñales01:39.909+0.73517281.4
8Marc Marquez01:39.914+0.74017289.4
9Hector Barbera01:39.937+0.76319290.0
10Scott Redding01:39.967+0.79319286.3
11Stefan Bradl01:40.037+0.86318284.6
12Andrea Iannone01:40.091+0.91716291.4
13Loris Baz01:40.092+0.91819283.4
14Eugene Laverty01:40.114+0.94020278.1
15Danilo Petrucci01:40.365+1.19119288.2
16Bradley Smith01:40.392+1.21820290.4
17Nicky Hayden01:40.521+1.34719280.0
18Yonny Hernandez01:40.604+1.43017289.6
19Karel Abraham01:41.059+1.88519282.7
20Hiroshi Aoyama01:41.064+1.89019294.7
21Jack Miller01:41.201+2.02717279.7
22Alvaro Bautista01:41.416+2.24216279.0
23Mike Di Meglio01:41.433+2.25916286.5
24Marco Melandri01:41.914+2.74017282.4
25Alex De Angelis01:42.333+3.15919278.2
FP2 · 01.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:39.300—20291.0
2Marc Marquez01:39.428+0.12816292.8
3Andrea Iannone01:39.511+0.21118292.3
4Andrea Dovizioso01:39.535+0.23517292.6
5Aleix Espargaro01:39.616+0.31618281.7
6Danilo Petrucci01:39.718+0.41818290.0
7Cal Crutchlow01:39.909+0.60918290.0
8Pol Espargaro01:39.953+0.65315291.1
9Maverick Viñales01:40.087+0.78718283.6
10Scott Redding01:40.145+0.84517291.6
11Bradley Smith01:40.293+0.99320288.9
12Yonny Hernandez01:40.363+1.06315292.8
13Valentino Rossi01:40.394+1.09419288.9
14Mike Di Meglio01:40.444+1.14419289.4
15Eugene Laverty01:40.514+1.21418282.9
16Hector Barbera01:40.569+1.26918291.1
17Hiroshi Aoyama01:40.678+1.37818291.5
18Alvaro Bautista01:40.752+1.45219280.6
19Nicky Hayden01:40.819+1.51918279.2
20Stefan Bradl01:40.825+1.52513286.3
21Karel Abraham01:40.917+1.61715284.1
22Jack Miller01:41.226+1.92616284.2
23Loris Baz01:41.422+2.12218281.3
24Marco Melandri01:41.450+2.15016282.8
25Alex De Angelis01:42.176+2.87614276.9
FP3 · 02.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:38.493—21289.5
2Pol Espargaro01:38.547+0.05419289.6
3Cal Crutchlow01:38.575+0.08218289.2
4Aleix Espargaro01:38.653+0.16017283.5
5Andrea Dovizioso01:38.728+0.23517294.3
6Valentino Rossi01:38.767+0.27420287.9
7Marc Marquez01:38.860+0.36718291.6
8Andrea Iannone01:38.876+0.38320294.9
9Bradley Smith01:38.924+0.43121290.4
10Scott Redding01:39.151+0.65818286.7
11Maverick Viñales01:39.196+0.70319284.4
12Danilo Petrucci01:39.229+0.73617288.2
13Yonny Hernandez01:39.312+0.81918291.9
14Hector Barbera01:39.582+1.08918293.6
15Alvaro Bautista01:39.724+1.23118280.9
16Karel Abraham01:39.824+1.33118284.5
17Mike Di Meglio01:39.840+1.34713289.9
18Stefan Bradl01:39.882+1.38920289.6
19Eugene Laverty01:40.088+1.59515278.8
20Hiroshi Aoyama01:40.149+1.65620292.8
21Loris Baz01:40.354+1.86118279.8
22Jack Miller01:40.486+1.99316284.7
23Nicky Hayden01:40.499+2.00618280.4
24Alex De Angelis01:41.049+2.55617279.7
25Marco Melandri01:41.433+2.94013280.3
FP4 · 02.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:39.360—14292.7
2Jorge Lorenzo01:39.584+0.22415285.9
3Andrea Dovizioso01:39.595+0.23515294.1
4Marc Marquez01:39.740+0.38010292.2
5Cal Crutchlow01:39.954+0.59414289.1
6Danilo Petrucci01:40.028+0.66812288.1
7Pol Espargaro01:40.053+0.69314288.3
8Valentino Rossi01:40.102+0.74215286.6
9Maverick Viñales01:40.385+1.02512280.7
10Aleix Espargaro01:40.430+1.07013279.5
11Hiroshi Aoyama01:40.537+1.17712291.9
12Eugene Laverty01:40.786+1.42615280.3
13Scott Redding01:40.823+1.46315284.8
14Stefan Bradl01:40.829+1.46913282.7
15Hector Barbera01:40.852+1.49216288.4
16Loris Baz01:40.878+1.51811278.7
17Yonny Hernandez01:40.915+1.55511290.3
18Bradley Smith01:40.932+1.5728287.0
19Jack Miller01:41.033+1.67310281.2
20Karel Abraham01:41.231+1.8719281.0
21Alvaro Bautista01:41.264+1.90411278.7
22Mike Di Meglio01:41.316+1.9567285.8
23Alex De Angelis01:41.504+2.14414276.7
24Nicky Hayden01:41.595+2.23514277.4
25Marco Melandri01:42.188+2.8289279.8
Q1 · 02.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:39.250—6290.4
2Yonny Hernandez01:39.427+0.1777290.1
3Hector Barbera01:39.569+0.3196291.7
4Maverick Viñales01:39.603+0.3537280.3
5Alvaro Bautista01:39.612+0.3628277.4
6Hiroshi Aoyama01:39.866+0.6168289.9
7Eugene Laverty01:39.974+0.7248280.8
8Nicky Hayden01:40.025+0.7757278.2
9Stefan Bradl01:40.166+0.9167281.2
10Karel Abraham01:40.177+0.9278280.6
11Loris Baz01:40.280+1.0305278.8
12Jack Miller01:40.365+1.1158280.2
13Mike Di Meglio01:40.817+1.5674286.6
14Alex De Angelis01:41.108+1.8587276.4
15Marco Melandri01:41.273+2.0236281.3
Q2 · 02.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:37.910—8287.3
2Marc Marquez01:38.300+0.3907289.6
3Andrea Iannone01:38.468+0.5588292.9
4Pol Espargaro01:38.539+0.6296285.6
5Valentino Rossi01:38.632+0.7228286.0
6Aleix Espargaro01:38.638+0.7288280.0
7Cal Crutchlow01:38.714+0.8048290.8
8Andrea Dovizioso01:38.823+0.9136293.6
9Yonny Hernandez01:39.464+1.5546289.3
10Bradley Smith01:39.491+1.5818287.9
11Danilo Petrucci01:39.789+1.8795289.0
12Scott Redding01:39.825+1.9157283.6
Warm Up · 03.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Pol Espargaro01:38.721—12289.2
2Aleix Espargaro01:38.747+0.02610280.2
3Marc Marquez01:39.160+0.43911293.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:39.229+0.50812287.4
5Valentino Rossi01:39.333+0.61211287.9
6Cal Crutchlow01:39.343+0.62211288.7
7Bradley Smith01:39.584+0.8639291.2
8Andrea Iannone01:39.741+1.02011291.8
9Hiroshi Aoyama01:39.824+1.10311294.3
10Scott Redding01:39.926+1.20512287.2
11Andrea Dovizioso01:39.936+1.21511291.2
12Maverick Viñales01:39.974+1.25312281.1
13Yonny Hernandez01:40.075+1.35410290.0
14Alvaro Bautista01:40.287+1.56611281.5
15Eugene Laverty01:40.330+1.6095280.3
16Nicky Hayden01:40.456+1.73511278.9
17Loris Baz01:40.716+1.99512280.7
18Stefan Bradl01:40.746+2.02512283.2
19Karel Abraham01:40.842+2.12111286.7
20Danilo Petrucci01:40.913+2.19212289.1
21Hector Barbera01:41.002+2.28110289.2
22Marco Melandri01:41.045+2.32412284.3
23Jack Miller01:41.109+2.38811279.8
24Alex De Angelis01:41.366+2.6457272.5
25Mike Di Meglio01:41.618+2.8977289.1
Race · 03.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo44:57.2462527
2Marc Marquez+5.5762027
3Valentino Rossi+11.5861627
4Cal Crutchlow+22.7271327
5Pol Espargaro+26.6201127
6Andrea Iannone+27.0211027
7Aleix Espargaro+35.445927
8Bradley Smith+36.296827
9Andrea Dovizioso+41.933727
10Yonny Hernandez+51.072627
11Maverick Viñales+51.674527
12Danilo Petrucci+52.421427
13Scott Redding+53.052327
14Hector Barbera+53.200227
15Alvaro Bautista+57.344127
16Stefan Bradl+59.018027
17Nicky Hayden+61.506027
18Eugene Laverty+63.163027
19Marco Melandri+66.895027
20Jack Miller+74.182027
21Alex De Angelis+86.832027
22Mike Di Meglio+0.000026
RetiredHiroshi Aoyama014
RetiredKarel Abraham03
RetiredLoris Baz08

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Maverick Viñales76%4
2Danilo Petrucci45%1 ✓
3Yonny Hernandez37%2 ✓
4Hector Barbera13%3
5Alvaro Bautista13%5
6Karel Abraham5%10
7Mike Di Meglio11%13
8Stefan Bradl0%9
9Eugene Laverty0%7
10Loris Baz0%11
11Hiroshi Aoyama0%6
12Jack Miller0%12
13Nicky Hayden0%8
14Alex De Angelis0%14
15Marco Melandri—15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo133%64%79%90%7%1
Marc Marquez222%54%71%85%11%2
Andrea Iannone313%38%55%70%27%6
Pol Espargaro49%32%50%70%23%5
Valentino Rossi58%32%56%83%8%3
Aleix Espargaro65%24%46%76%17%7
Cal Crutchlow73%15%32%63%27%4
Andrea Dovizioso83%14%35%77%7%9
Yonny Hernandez91%6%17%53%30%10
Bradley Smith101%6%18%62%14%8
Danilo Petrucci111%4%11%46%27%12
Scott Redding121%3%10%51%12%13
Hector Barbera130%2%7%42%16%14
Maverick Viñales140%2%5%36%12%11
Alvaro Bautista150%1%3%26%22%15
Hiroshi Aoyama160%1%2%24%7%—
Eugene Laverty170%1%2%16%12%18
Nicky Hayden180%0%1%12%14%17
Stefan Bradl190%0%0%6%22%16
Karel Abraham200%0%0%4%32%—
Loris Baz210%0%0%4%12%—
Jack Miller220%0%0%2%24%20
Mike Di Meglio230%0%0%2%19%22
Alex De Angelis240%0%0%1%10%21
Marco Melandri250%0%0%1%17%19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · AldeguerS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Viñales

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

49
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.431 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Jorge Lorenzo (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet