Round 9 of 18 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2015

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

10.07 – 12.07.2015

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:01.087	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.226	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+5.608	16
4	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+9.928	13
5	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+20.785	11
6	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+23.215	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	+29.881	9
8	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+34.953	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+35.875	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+37.253	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+37.274	5
12	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+42.081	4
13	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+48.611	3
14	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+50.687	2
15	Jack Miller	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	+53.769	1
16	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+58.921	0
17	Eugene Laverty	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+62.738	0
18	Alex De Angelis	ART	Octo IodaRacing Team	+63.122	0
19	Loris Baz	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	+71.162	0
20	Michael Laverty	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+75.910	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Claudio Corti	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Mike Di Meglio	Ducati	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29% ✓	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P1	0.91 / 0.91	2.0 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

26/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.226 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Jack Miller (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:04	Scott Redding	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:22		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:03:55	Mike Di Meglio	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:25	Mike Di Meglio	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:06:57	Hiroshi Aoyama	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:28	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:37:18	Claudio Corti	Retired	entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	14	6	+8
Michael Laverty	24	18	+6
Alvaro Bautista	16	12	+4
Hector Barbera	13	20	−7
Nicky Hayden	19	23	−4
Aleix Espargaro	7	10	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	6→3	+3.0
Danilo Petrucci	15→9	+2.8
Bradley Smith	9→6	+2.0
Loris Baz	20→19	−4.0
Alex De Angelis	17→18	−4.9
Yonny Hernandez	5→12	−6.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 24.2 °C

46%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

16 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Scott Redding	72%	4
2	Maverick Viñales	49%	2 ✓
3	Yonny Hernandez	37%	1 ✓
4	Hector Barbera	14%	3
5	Danilo Petrucci	14%	5
6	Alvaro Bautista	5%	6
7	Jack Miller	9%	8
8	Nicky Hayden	0%	9
9	Mike Di Meglio	0%	11
10	Alex De Angelis	0%	7
11	Loris Baz	0%	10
12	Eugene Laverty	0%	13
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	12
14	Michael Laverty	0%	14
15	Claudio Corti	0%	15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	42%	77%	95%	1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	23%	51%	84%	3
3	Valentino Rossi	21%	56%	93%	6
4	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	30%	65%	11
5	Bradley Smith	2%	33%	70%	9
6	Daniel Pedrosa	7%	19%	56%	2
7	Aleix Espargaro	2%	16%	54%	7
8	Cal Crutchlow	0%	12%	28%	10
9	Andrea Iannone	0%	2%	16%	4
10	Pol Espargaro	0%	2%	16%	8
11	Maverick Viñales	0%	0%	12%	12
12	Yonny Hernandez	0%	3%	14%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	59%	73%	84%	14%	1
Daniel Pedrosa	2	21%	55%	73%	86%	10%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	3	15%	48%	69%	89%	6%	4
Andrea Iannone	4	10%	31%	53%	72%	24%	5
Yonny Hernandez	5	6%	23%	44%	67%	30%	12
Valentino Rossi	6	7%	26%	49%	85%	7%	3
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	16%	35%	70%	19%	10
Pol Espargaro	8	3%	12%	27%	65%	22%	8
Bradley Smith	9	2%	8%	22%	69%	12%	6
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	6%	14%	51%	29%	7
Andrea Dovizioso	11	1%	5%	14%	58%	9%	—
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	4%	9%	51%	8%	11
Hector Barbera	13	0%	2%	6%	38%	17%	13
Scott Redding	14	0%	1%	4%	33%	13%	—
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	25%	9
Alvaro Bautista	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	21%	14
Alex De Angelis	17	0%	1%	1%	14%	16%	18
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	37%	15
Nicky Hayden	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	15%	16
Loris Baz	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	19
Mike Di Meglio	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	—
Hiroshi Aoyama	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	—
Eugene Laverty	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	17
Michael Laverty	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%	20
Claudio Corti	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	25%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Valentino Rossi	163	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	153	−10
3	Andrea Iannone	107	−56
4	Marc Marquez	89	−74
5	Andrea Dovizioso	87	−76
6	Bradley Smith	77	−86

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

163

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.466 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%