Round 10 of 18 Aftermath

Indianapolis Grand Prix 2015

Indianapolis Motor Speedway United States

07.08 – 09.08.2015

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:55.371	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+0.688	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+5.966	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.147	13
5	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+21.528	11
6	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+21.751	10
7	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+30.378	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	+31.607	8
9	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+32.821	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+34.517	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+39.010	5
12	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+41.815	4
13	Scott Redding	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+50.209	3
14	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+60.465	2
15	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+64.147	1
16	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+65.066	0
17	Mike Di Meglio	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+66.941	0
18	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+73.862	0
19	Eugene Laverty	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+78.706	0
20	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+79.730	0
21	Alex De Angelis	ART	Octo IodaRacing Team	+79.882	0
22	Toni Elias	Honda	AB Motoracing	+79.934	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.91 / 0.91	2.6 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

3/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.688 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P3.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (27 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:04:12		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:15:11	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:35		Red flag	White flag with diagonal red cross display

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	11	6	+5
Stefan Bradl	17	13	+4
Scott Redding	13	9	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	10	21	−11
Hector Barbera	14	23	−9
Cal Crutchlow	4	11	−7

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	8→3	+4.3
Pol Espargaro	11→7	+2.3
Jorge Lorenzo	3→2	+2.1
Toni Elias	23→22	−5.0
Alex De Angelis	21→21	−5.3
Stefan Bradl	17→20	−6.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

28.0 °C

Air

max 28.4 °C

60%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 07.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.654	—	18	342.8
2	Marc Marquez	01:33.747	+0.093	19	341.5
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.871	+0.217	18	345.8
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.050	+0.396	17	341.6
5	Valentino Rossi	01:34.374	+0.720	20	340.6
6	Andrea Iannone	01:34.380	+0.726	20	343.4
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.461	+0.807	16	338.6
8	Pol Espargaro	01:34.669	+1.015	21	341.5
9	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.794	+1.140	18	333.0
10	Maverick Viñales	01:34.897	+1.243	19	337.8
11	Hector Barbera	01:34.925	+1.271	19	340.4
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.966	+1.312	18	336.3
13	Scott Redding	01:35.022	+1.368	21	340.3
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.066	+1.412	19	335.3
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:35.131	+1.477	20	341.2
16	Bradley Smith	01:35.131	+1.477	22	340.4
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:35.249	+1.595	21	338.4
18	Nicky Hayden	01:35.340	+1.686	18	332.3
19	Eugene Laverty	01:35.603	+1.949	20	333.4
20	Jack Miller	01:35.936	+2.282	19	335.5
21	Alex De Angelis	01:36.416	+2.762	19	330.0
22	Stefan Bradl	01:36.444	+2.790	19	333.6
23	Toni Elias	01:38.512	+4.858	22	332.4

FP2 · 07.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.860	—	19	342.5
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.863	+0.003	19	347.0
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.155	+0.295	21	347.2
4	Andrea Iannone	01:33.166	+0.306	20	346.4
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.186	+0.326	20	341.8
6	Pol Espargaro	01:33.362	+0.502	18	345.0
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.377	+0.517	19	346.9
8	Scott Redding	01:33.443	+0.583	18	345.8
9	Bradley Smith	01:33.474	+0.614	24	342.5
10	Valentino Rossi	01:33.532	+0.672	21	338.7
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.763	+0.903	19	338.0
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:33.934	+1.074	19	341.6
13	Maverick Viñales	01:33.973	+1.113	18	340.7
14	Hector Barbera	01:34.083	+1.223	15	340.3
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.139	+1.279	17	336.3
16	Nicky Hayden	01:34.397	+1.537	18	333.7
17	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.459	+1.599	17	339.3
18	Jack Miller	01:34.731	+1.871	19	336.3
19	Eugene Laverty	01:34.923	+2.063	19	334.3
20	Stefan Bradl	01:34.935	+2.075	17	334.6
21	Alex De Angelis	01:35.185	+2.325	21	328.6
22	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.284	+2.424	19	337.0
23	Toni Elias	01:36.336	+3.476	18	333.8

FP3 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.392	—	21	343.0
2	Bradley Smith	01:32.421	+0.029	23	342.1
3	Andrea Iannone	01:32.718	+0.326	21	348.4
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.759	+0.367	19	345.5
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.819	+0.427	23	340.0
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.851	+0.459	21	342.8
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.914	+0.522	19	338.7
8	Pol Espargaro	01:32.945	+0.553	17	342.8
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.981	+0.589	22	339.6
10	Maverick Viñales	01:32.998	+0.606	18	343.8
11	Yonny Hernandez	01:33.290	+0.898	20	344.0
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.293	+0.901	17	344.0
13	Scott Redding	01:33.300	+0.908	19	339.9
14	Hector Barbera	01:33.503	+1.111	20	342.1
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.570	+1.178	18	342.2
16	Jack Miller	01:34.021	+1.629	17	336.3
17	Eugene Laverty	01:34.036	+1.644	19	338.0
18	Nicky Hayden	01:34.053	+1.661	18	333.0
19	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.332	+1.940	19	340.3
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.348	+1.956	22	336.7
21	Stefan Bradl	01:34.608	+2.216	20	333.7
22	Alex De Angelis	01:35.188	+2.796	18	328.0
23	Toni Elias	01:36.412	+4.020	16	333.1

FP4 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.399	—	15	342.7
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.027	+0.628	15	341.5
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.149	+0.750	16	342.7
4	Valentino Rossi	01:33.224	+0.825	16	339.6
5	Andrea Iannone	01:33.255	+0.856	17	349.3
6	Pol Espargaro	01:33.336	+0.937	14	341.5
7	Bradley Smith	01:33.419	+1.020	16	338.8
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.441	+1.042	13	334.7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.465	+1.066	14	345.3
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.575	+1.176	16	342.5
11	Maverick Viñales	01:33.589	+1.190	15	339.1
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.657	+1.258	13	341.3
13	Scott Redding	01:33.829	+1.430	12	340.4
14	Yonny Hernandez	01:33.980	+1.581	11	340.7
15	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.428	+2.029	11	337.1
16	Hector Barbera	01:34.467	+2.068	16	338.1
17	Jack Miller	01:34.560	+2.161	12	331.7
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.702	+2.303	16	334.1
19	Stefan Bradl	01:34.721	+2.322	14	336.0
20	Nicky Hayden	01:34.778	+2.379	14	331.1
21	Alex De Angelis	01:34.799	+2.400	11	330.4
22	Eugene Laverty	01:34.867	+2.468	13	334.8
23	Toni Elias	01:36.179	+3.780	14	332.7

Q1 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.886	—	6	343.1
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.091	+0.205	7	343.0
3	Scott Redding	01:33.170	+0.284	8	340.9
4	Hector Barbera	01:33.199	+0.313	8	340.0
5	Yonny Hernandez	01:33.278	+0.392	8	341.9
6	Jack Miller	01:33.381	+0.495	8	338.7
7	Stefan Bradl	01:33.822	+0.936	7	335.3
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.839	+0.953	8	336.0
9	Eugene Laverty	01:33.978	+1.092	8	334.1
10	Nicky Hayden	01:34.030	+1.144	8	331.2
11	Alex De Angelis	01:34.226	+1.340	8	327.6
12	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.322	+1.436	6	334.1
13	Toni Elias	01:35.167	+2.281	7	333.3

Q2 · 08.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:31.884	—	6	343.6
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.055	+0.171	8	341.8
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.186	+0.302	8	335.0
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.208	+0.324	8	340.4
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.243	+0.359	6	343.4
6	Bradley Smith	01:32.269	+0.385	9	340.9
7	Andrea Iannone	01:32.468	+0.584	7	343.1
8	Valentino Rossi	01:32.511	+0.627	8	337.0
9	Maverick Viñales	01:32.571	+0.687	7	337.1
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.636	+0.752	8	345.8
11	Pol Espargaro	01:32.670	+0.786	8	340.0
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.814	+0.930	6	330.8

Warm Up · 09.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.699	—	10	342.1
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.877	+0.178	12	342.4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.883	+0.184	9	338.4
4	Valentino Rossi	01:33.202	+0.503	12	337.4
5	Andrea Iannone	01:33.339	+0.640	12	344.9
6	Pol Espargaro	01:33.340	+0.641	11	341.6
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.538	+0.839	11	337.5
8	Bradley Smith	01:33.569	+0.870	12	339.3
9	Maverick Viñales	01:33.664	+0.965	13	335.4
10	Yonny Hernandez	01:33.743	+1.044	12	340.0
11	Scott Redding	01:33.777	+1.078	12	336.8
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.816	+1.117	12	341.8
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.854	+1.155	10	343.4
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.925	+1.226	11	334.1
15	Hector Barbera	01:34.238	+1.539	12	338.4
16	Mike Di Meglio	01:34.287	+1.588	10	337.1
17	Jack Miller	01:34.345	+1.646	11	334.8
18	Stefan Bradl	01:34.662	+1.963	10	333.1
19	Nicky Hayden	01:34.698	+1.999	12	327.1
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.779	+2.080	12	332.3
21	Eugene Laverty	01:34.979	+2.280	10	333.0
22	Alex De Angelis	01:35.082	+2.383	11	325.2
23	Toni Elias	01:35.523	+2.824	11	333.4

Race · 09.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	41:55.371	25	27
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+0.688	20	27
3	Valentino Rossi	+5.966	16	27
4	Daniel Pedrosa	+6.147	13	27
5	Andrea Iannone	+21.528	11	27
6	Bradley Smith	+21.751	10	27
7	Pol Espargaro	+30.378	9	27
8	Cal Crutchlow	+31.607	8	27
9	Andrea Dovizioso	+32.821	7	27
10	Danilo Petrucci	+34.517	6	27
11	Maverick Viñales	+39.010	5	27
12	Yonny Hernandez	+41.815	4	27
13	Scott Redding	+50.209	3	27
14	Aleix Espargaro	+60.465	2	27
15	Hector Barbera	+64.147	1	27
16	Nicky Hayden	+65.066	0	27
17	Mike Di Meglio	+66.941	0	27
18	Alvaro Bautista	+73.862	0	27
19	Eugene Laverty	+78.706	0	27
20	Stefan Bradl	+79.730	0	27
21	Alex De Angelis	+79.882	0	27
22	Toni Elias	+79.934	0	27
Retired	Jack Miller		0	7

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	71%	2 ✓
2	Yonny Hernandez	50%	5
3	Scott Redding	39%	3
4	Hector Barbera	14%	4
5	Danilo Petrucci	14%	1 ✓
6	Jack Miller	5%	6
7	Eugene Laverty	9%	9
8	Nicky Hayden	0%	10
9	Mike Di Meglio	0%	12
10	Alvaro Bautista	0%	8
11	Stefan Bradl	0%	7
12	Alex De Angelis	0%	11
13	Toni Elias	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	43%	77%	96%	1
2	Bradley Smith	23%	52%	84%	6
3	Andrea Iannone	21%	55%	93%	7
4	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	30%	64%	2
5	Jorge Lorenzo	2%	32%	68%	3
6	Cal Crutchlow	7%	21%	57%	4
7	Aleix Espargaro	2%	16%	52%	12
8	Pol Espargaro	0%	11%	27%	11
9	Valentino Rossi	0%	2%	18%	8
10	Maverick Viñales	0%	2%	16%	9
11	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	0%	11%	10
12	Danilo Petrucci	0%	3%	16%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	61%	74%	84%	14%	1
Daniel Pedrosa	2	24%	57%	74%	87%	10%	4
Jorge Lorenzo	3	16%	51%	72%	90%	6%	2
Cal Crutchlow	4	9%	31%	49%	67%	29%	8
Danilo Petrucci	5	6%	25%	45%	68%	25%	10
Bradley Smith	6	6%	24%	47%	80%	12%	6
Andrea Iannone	7	3%	14%	32%	68%	23%	5
Valentino Rossi	8	3%	13%	32%	78%	7%	3
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	8%	22%	72%	8%	11
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	7%	18%	65%	10%	9
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	11%	50%	22%	7
Aleix Espargaro	12	0%	2%	9%	44%	19%	14
Scott Redding	13	0%	2%	6%	38%	16%	13
Hector Barbera	14	0%	1%	4%	32%	16%	15
Yonny Hernandez	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	29%	12
Jack Miller	16	0%	0%	2%	16%	34%	—
Stefan Bradl	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	25%	20
Alvaro Bautista	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	20%	18
Eugene Laverty	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	14%	19
Nicky Hayden	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	16
Alex De Angelis	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	15%	21
Mike Di Meglio	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	22%	17
Toni Elias	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	22

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Pending · no data yet

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Valentino Rossi	179	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	166	−13
3	Andrea Iannone	118	−61
4	Marc Marquez	114	−65
5	Andrea Dovizioso	87	−92
6	Bradley Smith	87	−92

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.803 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P18 to P10.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Michele Pirro (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2015Marc MarquezHonda
2014Marc MarquezHonda
2013Marc MarquezHonda
2012Daniel PedrosaHonda
2011Casey StonerHonda
2010Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2015	1/23	4%
2014	8/23	35%
2013	4/23	17%
2012	6/22	27%
2011	3/17	18%
2010	4/17	24%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet