Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2014

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

10.10 – 12.10.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	42:21.259	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+1.638	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.602	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.157	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+14.353	11
6	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.653	10
7	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+19.531	9
8	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+19.815	8
9	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+23.575	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+35.687	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+40.668	5
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	YAMALUBE Racing Team with YSP	+51.027	4
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+51.093	3
14	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+55.792	2
15	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+59.089	1
16	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+59.508	0
17	Alex De Angelis	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+76.547	0
18	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+88.021	0
19	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+89.470	0
20	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+93.253	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

20/24

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

1.638 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Nicky Hayden (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:03:27	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:59		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:08:53	Danilo Petrucci	Retired	Retired
Race	14:27:44	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:44:16	Yonny Hernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Valentino Rossi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Lorenzo	5	2	+3
Nicky Hayden	14	11	+3
Mike Di Meglio	23	21	+2
Alex De Angelis	20	24	−4
Daniel Pedrosa	3	6	−3
Cal Crutchlow	8	10	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Lorenzo	5→1	+4.4
Marc Marquez	4→2	+2.8
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	17→12	+1.1
Hector Barbera	16→15	−2.5
Nicky Hayden	14→14	−2.8
Scott Redding	15→16	−4.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

18.1 °C

Air

max 18.2 °C

60%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.838	—	17	299.7
2	Marc Marquez	01:46.004	+0.166	15	302.1
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.072	+0.234	14	304.2
4	Yonny Hernandez	01:46.113	+0.275	15	299.0
5	Valentino Rossi	01:46.184	+0.346	19	301.1
6	Stefan Bradl	01:46.230	+0.392	18	302.5
7	Pol Espargaro	01:46.265	+0.427	17	302.5
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.334	+0.496	18	303.2
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.404	+0.566	16	295.9
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.636	+0.798	19	303.9
11	Andrea Iannone	01:46.661	+0.823	18	301.6
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.973	+1.135	20	297.6
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.016	+1.178	17	299.7
14	Bradley Smith	01:47.110	+1.272	19	299.9
15	Alex De Angelis	01:47.285	+1.447	18	295.2
16	Hector Barbera	01:47.335	+1.497	15	301.9
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.514	+1.676	18	295.0
18	Nicky Hayden	01:47.829	+1.991	18	288.2
19	Karel Abraham	01:47.929	+2.091	16	288.6
20	Scott Redding	01:48.239	+2.401	17	287.9
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.295	+2.457	18	285.1
22	Broc Parkes	01:49.723	+3.885	15	285.7
23	Michael Laverty	01:49.923	+4.085	17	288.6
24	Mike Di Meglio	01:50.469	+4.631	10	284.9

FP2 · 10.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.140	—	20	305.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.580	+0.440	16	300.5
3	Stefan Bradl	01:45.637	+0.497	19	307.0
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.727	+0.587	18	306.1
5	Valentino Rossi	01:45.890	+0.750	19	302.3
6	Marc Marquez	01:45.939	+0.799	19	305.4
7	Pol Espargaro	01:46.041	+0.901	20	303.2
8	Bradley Smith	01:46.105	+0.965	18	301.1
9	Andrea Iannone	01:46.107	+0.967	13	302.9
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.221	+1.081	16	298.7
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.227	+1.087	19	302.6
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:46.297	+1.157	16	302.5
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.315	+1.175	10	296.5
14	Hector Barbera	01:46.571	+1.431	14	300.8
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.133	+1.993	15	298.1
16	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:47.180	+2.040	16	301.4
17	Karel Abraham	01:47.406	+2.266	16	290.4
18	Alex De Angelis	01:47.513	+2.373	19	295.3
19	Scott Redding	01:47.586	+2.446	18	287.0
20	Nicky Hayden	01:47.975	+2.835	17	288.0
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.264	+3.124	16	284.5
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:49.105	+3.965	13	288.0
23	Broc Parkes	01:49.159	+4.019	16	286.1
24	Michael Laverty	01:49.321	+4.181	16	288.5

FP3 · 11.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:44.940	—	18	308.4
2	Valentino Rossi	01:45.167	+0.227	18	304.9
3	Pol Espargaro	01:45.239	+0.299	17	306.7
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.363	+0.423	18	305.2
5	Andrea Iannone	01:45.400	+0.460	19	308.3
6	Bradley Smith	01:45.477	+0.537	20	305.7
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.538	+0.598	17	305.9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.548	+0.608	19	306.7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.565	+0.625	17	308.9
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.780	+0.840	18	306.9
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.933	+0.993	16	300.4
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:46.114	+1.174	17	303.0
13	Stefan Bradl	01:46.204	+1.264	19	306.4
14	Hector Barbera	01:46.835	+1.895	16	304.7
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.919	+1.979	19	304.3
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.382	+2.442	15	300.0
17	Nicky Hayden	01:47.401	+2.461	17	292.8
18	Alex De Angelis	01:47.414	+2.474	17	304.1
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.729	+2.789	17	289.0
20	Karel Abraham	01:47.881	+2.941	15	293.5
21	Scott Redding	01:47.960	+3.020	16	292.6
22	Broc Parkes	01:48.786	+3.846	16	290.0
23	Mike Di Meglio	01:48.802	+3.862	16	289.3
24	Michael Laverty	01:48.917	+3.977	15	293.0

FP4 · 11.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.598	—	11	302.4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.650	+0.052	15	307.3
3	Marc Marquez	01:45.688	+0.090	14	305.3
4	Andrea Iannone	01:45.730	+0.132	14	304.5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.772	+0.174	12	306.4
6	Stefan Bradl	01:45.900	+0.302	15	306.4
7	Valentino Rossi	01:45.992	+0.394	14	303.6
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.301	+0.703	12	303.3
9	Pol Espargaro	01:46.441	+0.843	13	303.2
10	Bradley Smith	01:46.657	+1.059	14	303.9
11	Yonny Hernandez	01:46.809	+1.211	11	301.5
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.830	+1.232	9	297.2
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.936	+1.338	11	305.4
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.474	+1.876	11	295.8
15	Alex De Angelis	01:47.611	+2.013	12	299.8
16	Nicky Hayden	01:47.798	+2.200	13	292.1
17	Scott Redding	01:47.847	+2.249	12	290.6
18	Karel Abraham	01:47.916	+2.318	10	293.3
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.979	+2.381	13	286.7
20	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:47.998	+2.400	8	302.4
21	Hector Barbera	01:48.070	+2.472	6	301.5
22	Michael Laverty	01:48.861	+3.263	11	291.8
23	Mike Di Meglio	01:49.157	+3.559	12	289.2
24	Broc Parkes	01:49.319	+3.721	12	290.3

Q1 · 11.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.598	—	6	296.2
2	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.797	+0.199	8	303.2
3	Yonny Hernandez	01:45.971	+0.373	7	302.3
4	Nicky Hayden	01:46.465	+0.867	8	290.5
5	Scott Redding	01:46.499	+0.901	8	289.5
6	Hector Barbera	01:46.796	+1.198	7	301.6
7	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:46.876	+1.278	7	300.2
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:46.915	+1.317	6	296.7
9	Karel Abraham	01:46.948	+1.350	7	293.7
10	Alex De Angelis	01:47.092	+1.494	6	296.6
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.757	+2.159	7	289.6
12	Michael Laverty	01:48.144	+2.546	8	293.8
13	Mike Di Meglio	01:48.185	+2.587	7	290.0
14	Broc Parkes	01:48.261	+2.663	7	289.2

Q2 · 11.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.502	—	7	308.3
2	Valentino Rossi	01:44.557	+0.055	7	305.4
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:44.755	+0.253	7	307.6
4	Marc Marquez	01:44.775	+0.273	8	306.9
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:44.784	+0.282	7	303.7
6	Andrea Iannone	01:44.854	+0.352	7	304.3
7	Pol Espargaro	01:44.867	+0.365	7	302.6
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.898	+0.396	7	304.3
9	Stefan Bradl	01:45.005	+0.503	8	306.3
10	Bradley Smith	01:45.044	+0.542	8	303.4
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.315	+0.813	5	297.4
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.677	+1.175	4	304.9

Warm Up · 12.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.217	—	11	306.7
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.709	+0.492	11	305.7
3	Andrea Iannone	01:45.834	+0.617	10	307.1
4	Valentino Rossi	01:45.959	+0.742	11	303.4
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.007	+0.790	10	307.3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.027	+0.810	11	307.0
7	Stefan Bradl	01:46.054	+0.837	11	305.6
8	Pol Espargaro	01:46.138	+0.921	11	304.2
9	Bradley Smith	01:46.205	+0.988	11	303.7
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.313	+1.096	10	305.6
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.648	+1.431	9	298.8
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.774	+1.557	11	305.5
13	Yonny Hernandez	01:47.161	+1.944	10	304.3
14	Hector Barbera	01:47.221	+2.004	8	303.8
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:47.238	+2.021	11	302.0
16	Alex De Angelis	01:47.316	+2.099	9	300.5
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.396	+2.179	10	300.3
18	Karel Abraham	01:47.637	+2.420	11	295.8
19	Scott Redding	01:47.705	+2.488	11	292.1
20	Nicky Hayden	01:47.820	+2.603	6	293.7
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.513	+3.296	10	290.5
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:48.530	+3.313	11	291.0
23	Broc Parkes	01:48.598	+3.381	9	291.0
24	Michael Laverty	01:49.077	+3.860	11	292.6

Race · 12.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	42:21.259	25	24
2	Marc Marquez	+1.638	20	24
3	Valentino Rossi	+2.602	16	24
4	Daniel Pedrosa	+3.157	13	24
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+14.353	11	24
6	Andrea Iannone	+16.653	10	24
7	Stefan Bradl	+19.531	9	24
8	Pol Espargaro	+19.815	8	24
9	Bradley Smith	+23.575	7	24
10	Alvaro Bautista	+35.687	6	24
11	Aleix Espargaro	+40.668	5	24
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+51.027	4	24
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	+51.093	3	24
14	Nicky Hayden	+55.792	2	24
15	Hector Barbera	+59.089	1	24
16	Scott Redding	+59.508	0	24
17	Alex De Angelis	+76.547	0	24
18	Michael Laverty	+88.021	0	24
19	Mike Di Meglio	+89.470	0	24
20	Broc Parkes	+93.253	0	24
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	1
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	4
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	14
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	23

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	81%	2 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	45%	1 ✓
3	Yonny Hernandez	39%	3
4	Hector Barbera	10%	6
5	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	16%	7
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	8
7	Alex De Angelis	10%	10
8	Nicky Hayden	0%	4
9	Karel Abraham	0%	9
10	Scott Redding	0%	5
11	Danilo Petrucci	0%	11
12	Broc Parkes	0%	14
13	Mike Di Meglio	0%	13
14	Michael Laverty	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	45%	74%	94%	4
2	Andrea Dovizioso	23%	58%	87%	1
3	Valentino Rossi	23%	55%	94%	2
4	Pol Espargaro	3%	32%	65%	7
5	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	39%	74%	5
6	Andrea Iannone	3%	16%	52%	6
7	Bradley Smith	0%	16%	55%	10
8	Cal Crutchlow	0%	7%	26%	8
9	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	0%	13%	3
10	Stefan Bradl	0%	3%	23%	9
11	Alvaro Bautista	0%	0%	7%	12
12	Aleix Espargaro	0%	0%	16%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	292	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	217	−75
3	Valentino Rossi	214	−78
4	Jorge Lorenzo	202	−90
5	Andrea Dovizioso	142	−150
6	Aleix Espargaro	112	−180

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

3.188 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Bradley Smith, from P13 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Nicky Hayden (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet