Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2014

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

17.10 – 19.10.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	40:46.405	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+10.836	20
3	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+12.294	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+14.893	13
5	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+30.089	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+30.154	10
7	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+30.158	9
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+33.166	8
9	Alex De Angelis	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+33.577	7
10	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+34.144	6
11	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+39.468	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	+56.684	4
13	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+72.813	3
14	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+88.050	2
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/27

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

10.836 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex De Angelis, from P23 to P9.

Longest battle: Broc Parkes vs Mike Di Meglio (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:02:18		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:08:25	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:08:56	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:11:48	Daniel Pedrosa	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	16:22:44	Broc Parkes	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	16:27:22	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:30:06	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:31:47	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Retired
Race	16:37:36	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:40:41	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex De Angelis	23	17	+6
Alvaro Bautista	17	12	+5
Pol Espargaro	9	4	+5
Karel Abraham	16	23	−7
Cal Crutchlow	2	9	−7
Hiroshi Aoyama	12	16	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex De Angelis	23→9	+8.0
Alvaro Bautista	17→6	+7.1
Valentino Rossi	8→1	+6.3
Nicky Hayden	15→10	+1.8
Bradley Smith	4→3	+1.8
Mike Di Meglio	20→14	+1.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

15.4 °C

Air

max 15.6 °C

75%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

22 km/h

Wind

gusts 51 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.749	—	18	333.0
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.909	+0.160	17	331.7
3	Andrea Iannone	01:30.025	+0.276	20	340.4
4	Valentino Rossi	01:30.051	+0.302	21	335.6
5	Marc Marquez	01:30.079	+0.330	20	336.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.383	+0.634	19	338.4
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.453	+0.704	20	338.6
8	Bradley Smith	01:30.645	+0.896	22	336.1
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.667	+0.918	19	328.3
10	Stefan Bradl	01:30.696	+0.947	22	338.8
11	Pol Espargaro	01:30.770	+1.021	21	333.8
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.898	+1.149	18	336.0
13	Nicky Hayden	01:31.034	+1.285	20	321.1
14	Hector Barbera	01:31.143	+1.394	19	332.3
15	Scott Redding	01:31.174	+1.425	20	324.1
16	Karel Abraham	01:31.282	+1.533	18	326.0
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.383	+1.634	17	335.4
18	Alex De Angelis	01:31.588	+1.839	17	330.7
19	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.615	+1.866	23	326.0
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.723	+1.974	20	319.6
21	Mike Di Meglio	01:32.191	+2.442	17	316.4
22	Broc Parkes	01:32.692	+2.943	14	320.5
23	Michael Laverty	01:33.432	+3.683	18	322.3

FP2 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.602	—	14	331.7
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.752	+0.150	19	334.9
3	Andrea Iannone	01:29.803	+0.201	15	340.8
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.945	+0.343	19	338.5
5	Valentino Rossi	01:29.954	+0.352	20	332.8
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.058	+0.456	20	330.4
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.076	+0.474	19	338.7
8	Pol Espargaro	01:30.103	+0.501	20	337.6
9	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.281	+0.679	19	337.3
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.289	+0.687	23	327.8
11	Bradley Smith	01:30.313	+0.711	23	336.7
12	Stefan Bradl	01:30.678	+1.076	23	335.2
13	Nicky Hayden	01:31.043	+1.441	21	323.2
14	Alex De Angelis	01:31.108	+1.506	19	332.8
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.137	+1.535	22	334.2
16	Karel Abraham	01:31.219	+1.617	18	325.5
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.264	+1.662	21	324.9
18	Hector Barbera	01:31.355	+1.753	16	331.0
19	Scott Redding	01:31.550	+1.948	18	321.2
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.916	+2.314	21	320.6
21	Broc Parkes	01:32.506	+2.904	14	314.5
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:32.598	+2.996	18	317.9
23	Michael Laverty	01:32.843	+3.241	17	319.1

FP3 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.157	—	18	339.9
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.454	+0.297	19	342.4
3	Andrea Iannone	01:29.491	+0.334	11	342.9
4	Valentino Rossi	01:29.495	+0.338	22	340.8
5	Pol Espargaro	01:29.635	+0.478	19	339.5
6	Bradley Smith	01:29.661	+0.504	23	341.5
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.802	+0.645	19	335.1
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.810	+0.653	20	342.6
9	Stefan Bradl	01:29.879	+0.722	21	340.6
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.976	+0.819	19	334.6
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.248	+1.091	18	345.6
12	Scott Redding	01:30.271	+1.114	17	328.5
13	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.406	+1.249	19	343.9
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.468	+1.311	20	342.3
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:30.527	+1.370	19	334.6
16	Alex De Angelis	01:30.625	+1.468	20	335.9
17	Hector Barbera	01:30.663	+1.506	19	336.1
18	Karel Abraham	01:30.757	+1.600	18	332.6
19	Nicky Hayden	01:30.946	+1.789	21	329.0
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.382	+2.225	24	325.3
21	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.631	+2.474	17	320.7
22	Michael Laverty	01:31.984	+2.827	20	327.3
23	Broc Parkes	01:32.366	+3.209	14	318.9

FP4 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:29.381	—	15	341.0
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.448	+0.067	13	342.2
3	Valentino Rossi	01:29.749	+0.368	17	341.5
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.788	+0.407	13	337.0
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.880	+0.499	14	339.7
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.986	+0.605	15	344.6
7	Bradley Smith	01:30.024	+0.643	16	338.9
8	Pol Espargaro	01:30.025	+0.644	16	343.8
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.201	+0.820	13	337.7
10	Stefan Bradl	01:30.217	+0.836	15	338.0
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:30.322	+0.941	11	332.5
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.422	+1.041	13	343.5
13	Hector Barbera	01:30.603	+1.222	16	336.4
14	Scott Redding	01:30.682	+1.301	12	331.1
15	Alex De Angelis	01:30.722	+1.341	16	335.7
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.822	+1.441	14	342.6
17	Nicky Hayden	01:31.085	+1.704	14	327.7
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:31.393	+2.012	9	342.7
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.544	+2.163	17	324.5
20	Karel Abraham	01:31.573	+2.192	7	330.9
21	Michael Laverty	01:31.907	+2.526	10	327.6
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.997	+2.616	11	320.0
23	Broc Parkes	01:32.207	+2.826	9	319.1

Q1 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.097	—	4	336.8
2	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:30.166	+1.069	5	333.6
3	Scott Redding	01:30.280	+1.183	5	326.8
4	Hector Barbera	01:30.348	+1.251	4	340.3
5	Nicky Hayden	01:30.542	+1.445	5	324.7
6	Karel Abraham	01:30.569	+1.472	5	332.2
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.635	+1.538	5	341.6
8	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.729	+1.632	4	341.3
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.812	+1.715	5	325.8
10	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.431	+2.334	4	318.2
11	Michael Laverty	01:31.492	+2.395	5	327.9
12	Broc Parkes	01:31.730	+2.633	5	314.3
13	Alex De Angelis	01:32.595	+3.498	5	335.1

Q2 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.408	—	8	346.2
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.642	+0.234	8	345.9
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:28.650	+0.242	8	342.0
4	Bradley Smith	01:28.656	+0.248	9	341.1
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:28.675	+0.267	8	335.2
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.866	+0.458	9	338.0
7	Andrea Iannone	01:28.887	+0.479	6	342.7
8	Valentino Rossi	01:28.956	+0.548	8	344.0
9	Pol Espargaro	01:28.968	+0.560	8	340.1
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.088	+0.680	6	343.8
11	Stefan Bradl	01:29.155	+0.747	8	340.9
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:29.955	+1.547	3	333.0

Warm Up · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.871	—	13	343.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.899	+0.028	12	332.7
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.928	+0.057	11	342.4
4	Andrea Iannone	01:29.948	+0.077	10	336.4
5	Valentino Rossi	01:30.021	+0.150	12	341.8
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.117	+0.246	13	344.6
7	Bradley Smith	01:30.213	+0.342	11	336.6
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.240	+0.369	11	338.1
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.242	+0.371	12	344.3
10	Pol Espargaro	01:30.259	+0.388	13	340.5
11	Stefan Bradl	01:30.303	+0.432	11	342.8
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.725	+0.854	13	341.9
13	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.740	+0.869	12	342.4
14	Hector Barbera	01:30.767	+0.896	11	331.8
15	Alex De Angelis	01:31.043	+1.172	12	337.8
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.101	+1.230	11	335.7
17	Nicky Hayden	01:31.352	+1.481	11	328.4
18	Scott Redding	01:31.442	+1.571	11	329.2
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.515	+1.644	11	327.1
20	Karel Abraham	01:31.675	+1.804	9	331.5
21	Michael Laverty	01:32.280	+2.409	11	326.0
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:32.422	+2.551	12	321.8
23	Broc Parkes	01:33.031	+3.160	10	313.9

Race · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Valentino Rossi	40:46.405	25	27
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+10.836	20	27
3	Bradley Smith	+12.294	16	27
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+14.893	13	27
5	Hector Barbera	+30.089	11	27
6	Alvaro Bautista	+30.154	10	27
7	Scott Redding	+30.158	9	27
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	+33.166	8	27
9	Alex De Angelis	+33.577	7	27
10	Nicky Hayden	+34.144	6	27
11	Yonny Hernandez	+39.468	5	27
12	Danilo Petrucci	+56.684	4	27
13	Michael Laverty	+72.813	3	27
14	Mike Di Meglio	+88.050	2	27
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	20
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	5
Retired	Broc Parkes		0	13
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	26
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	6
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	4
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	17
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	24
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	19

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Daniel Pedrosa	81%	1 ✓
2	Scott Redding	47%	3
3	Yonny Hernandez	38%	8
4	Hiroshi Aoyama	9%	2 ✓
5	Alvaro Bautista	16%	7
6	Hector Barbera	0%	4
7	Alex De Angelis	9%	13
8	Karel Abraham	0%	6
9	Nicky Hayden	0%	5
10	Danilo Petrucci	0%	9
11	Mike Di Meglio	0%	10
12	Michael Laverty	0%	11
13	Broc Parkes	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Lorenzo	44%	72%	94%	3
2	Andrea Iannone	25%	59%	88%	7
3	Marc Marquez	22%	56%	94%	1
4	Valentino Rossi	3%	31%	63%	8
5	Pol Espargaro	3%	38%	75%	9
6	Bradley Smith	3%	16%	53%	4
7	Aleix Espargaro	0%	16%	53%	6
8	Cal Crutchlow	0%	6%	25%	2
9	Stefan Bradl	0%	3%	16%	11
10	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	3%	22%	10
11	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	0%	6%	5
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	0%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	312	—
2	Valentino Rossi	230	−82
3	Daniel Pedrosa	230	−82
4	Jorge Lorenzo	227	−85
5	Andrea Dovizioso	153	−159
6	Aleix Espargaro	117	−195

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

106

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/19

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

6.936 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P19 to P14.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet