Round 7 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2012

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

28.06 – 30.06.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:19.855	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.965	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+11.994	16
4	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+14.775	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+22.074	11
6	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+31.660	10
7	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+59.107	9
8	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+64.441	8
9	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+66.980	7
10	Mattia Pasini	ART	Speed Master	+85.087	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda	Came IodaRacing Project	+92.103	5
12	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	+93.797	4
13	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.000	3
14	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+0.000	2
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	Did not start	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/26

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

4.965 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P7 to P3.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Ben Spies (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Daniel Pedrosa (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Karel Abraham	17	9	+8
Colin Edwards	21	14	+7
Michele Pirro	14	10	+4
Cal Crutchlow	5	12	−7
Stefan Bradl	4	5	−1
Casey Stoner	1	2	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	7→3	+3.7
Ivan Silva	20→12	+3.0
Hector Barbera	11→7	+2.3
Cal Crutchlow	5→5	+0.4
James Ellison	19→14	+0.4
Valentino Rossi	10→13	−4.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

21.9 °C

Air

max 22.1 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

19 km/h

Wind

gusts 40 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.106	—	17	297.9
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.126	+0.020	20	304.2
3	Casey Stoner	01:35.181	+0.075	17	302.4
4	Ben Spies	01:35.555	+0.449	22	297.4
5	Nicky Hayden	01:35.841	+0.735	20	296.3
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.867	+0.761	18	300.3
7	Hector Barbera	01:35.970	+0.864	19	301.8
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.995	+0.889	20	299.8
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:36.031	+0.925	19	298.8
10	Valentino Rossi	01:36.084	+0.978	22	300.3
11	Stefan Bradl	01:36.737	+1.631	21	300.1
12	Randy De Puniet	01:37.187	+2.081	20	283.1
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.365	+2.259	20	279.9
14	Michele Pirro	01:37.771	+2.665	16	281.7
15	Karel Abraham	01:37.850	+2.744	15	297.9
16	Mattia Pasini	01:38.642	+3.536	20	283.5
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:38.649	+3.543	21	279.4
18	Colin Edwards	01:39.076	+3.970	17	282.4
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.385	+4.279	21	264.9
20	James Ellison	01:39.495	+4.389	20	281.7
21	Ivan Silva	01:39.530	+4.424	19	280.8

FP2 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Ben Spies	01:34.866	—	24	299.1
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.872	+0.006	21	297.4
3	Nicky Hayden	01:34.968	+0.102	22	297.7
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.008	+0.142	20	302.2
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.057	+0.191	18	299.6
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.080	+0.214	21	303.5
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.257	+0.391	21	302.3
8	Valentino Rossi	01:35.296	+0.430	22	300.8
9	Hector Barbera	01:35.298	+0.432	16	302.7
10	Casey Stoner	01:35.304	+0.438	12	301.4
11	Stefan Bradl	01:35.337	+0.471	23	302.9
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.615	+1.749	19	282.4
13	Randy De Puniet	01:36.871	+2.005	19	281.2
14	Michele Pirro	01:37.057	+2.191	19	282.4
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:37.572	+2.706	21	281.3
16	Karel Abraham	01:37.628	+2.762	17	300.0
17	Mattia Pasini	01:37.657	+2.791	21	285.5
18	Colin Edwards	01:37.669	+2.803	17	282.1
19	James Ellison	01:37.973	+3.107	19	283.8
20	Ivan Silva	01:38.279	+3.413	18	281.7
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.373	+3.507	21	266.1

FP3 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.522	—	13	302.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.683	+0.161	11	302.4
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.746	+0.224	11	301.8
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:35.069	+0.547	12	300.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.250	+0.728	14	307.9
6	Casey Stoner	01:35.312	+0.790	7	303.4
7	Stefan Bradl	01:35.400	+0.878	14	301.8
8	Nicky Hayden	01:35.428	+0.906	13	300.1
9	Hector Barbera	01:35.559	+1.037	13	304.9
10	Ben Spies	01:35.640	+1.118	11	298.1
11	Valentino Rossi	01:36.466	+1.944	16	299.1
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.663	+2.141	13	286.4
13	Randy De Puniet	01:36.784	+2.262	14	281.8
14	Karel Abraham	01:37.707	+3.185	10	299.9
15	Michele Pirro	01:37.765	+3.243	13	280.7
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:37.847	+3.325	13	280.2
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.069	+3.547	13	269.1
18	James Ellison	01:38.483	+3.961	13	280.0
19	Mattia Pasini	01:38.860	+4.338	9	282.0
20	Ivan Silva	01:40.332	+5.810	9	273.4
21	Colin Edwards	01:40.683	+6.161	7	281.8

Qualifying · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:33.713	—	15	303.4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.828	+0.115	19	303.4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.001	+0.288	20	305.7
4	Stefan Bradl	01:34.035	+0.322	20	304.0
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.486	+0.773	17	299.0
6	Ben Spies	01:34.644	+0.931	16	297.2
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.698	+0.985	17	299.6
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.722	+1.009	16	299.4
9	Nicky Hayden	01:34.751	+1.038	19	300.0
10	Valentino Rossi	01:35.057	+1.344	22	302.1
11	Hector Barbera	01:35.289	+1.576	16	305.0
12	Randy De Puniet	01:35.830	+2.117	20	286.6
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.007	+2.294	14	286.3
14	Michele Pirro	01:36.647	+2.934	15	283.2
15	Mattia Pasini	01:36.943	+3.230	17	284.7
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:36.967	+3.254	22	270.0
17	Karel Abraham	01:37.110	+3.397	15	302.8
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:37.191	+3.478	18	279.8
19	James Ellison	01:37.281	+3.568	19	283.5
20	Ivan Silva	01:37.554	+3.841	17	284.3
21	Colin Edwards	01:38.305	+4.592	16	283.4

Warm Up · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.636	—	12	302.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.668	+0.032	13	302.2
3	Casey Stoner	01:34.681	+0.045	11	302.7
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.734	+0.098	12	309.4
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.742	+0.106	12	299.3
6	Ben Spies	01:34.817	+0.181	12	297.4
7	Stefan Bradl	01:34.999	+0.363	11	303.4
8	Hector Barbera	01:35.101	+0.465	12	304.8
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.267	+0.631	12	299.9
10	Nicky Hayden	01:35.334	+0.698	12	300.9
11	Valentino Rossi	01:35.742	+1.106	13	300.6
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.342	+1.706	11	284.3
13	Randy De Puniet	01:36.353	+1.717	12	284.5
14	Karel Abraham	01:36.814	+2.178	11	300.6
15	Michele Pirro	01:37.022	+2.386	10	281.7
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:37.140	+2.504	12	279.8
17	Mattia Pasini	01:37.651	+3.015	11	284.7
18	Ivan Silva	01:37.861	+3.225	12	283.4
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.206	+3.570	11	266.1
20	James Ellison	01:38.274	+3.638	12	286.8
21	Colin Edwards	01:38.580	+3.944	10	282.4

Race · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	41:19.855	25	26
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+4.965	20	26
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+11.994	16	26
4	Ben Spies	+14.775	13	26
5	Cal Crutchlow	+22.074	11	26
6	Nicky Hayden	+31.660	10	26
7	Hector Barbera	+59.107	9	26
8	Randy De Puniet	+64.441	8	26
9	Michele Pirro	+66.980	7	26
10	Mattia Pasini	+85.087	6	26
11	Danilo Petrucci	+92.103	5	26
12	Ivan Silva	+93.797	4	26
13	Valentino Rossi	+0.000	3	25
14	James Ellison	+0.000	2	25
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	14
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	0
Retired	Colin Edwards		0	7
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	0
Did not start	Karel Abraham		0	0
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	1
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	5

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	140	—
2	Casey Stoner	115	−25
3	Daniel Pedrosa	101	−39
4	Cal Crutchlow	66	−74
5	Andrea Dovizioso	60	−80
6	Valentino Rossi	58	−82

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Ben Spies

7.697 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P11 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Casey Stoner (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet