Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2011

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

04.11 – 06.11.2011

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	48:18.645	25
2	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+0.015	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.936	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+8.718	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.321	11
6	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+23.818	10
7	Josh Hayes	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.118	9
8	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+37.952	8
9	Loris Capirossi	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+48.953	7
10	Toni Elias	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+52.501	6
11	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Mapfre Aspar Team MotoGP	+66.519	5
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+68.760	4
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

28/30

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

0.015 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P15 to P6.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Karel Abraham (29 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	15	8	+7
Cal Crutchlow	11	5	+6
Josh Hayes	16	10	+6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	15→6	+5.8
Josh Hayes	16→7	+5.5
Cal Crutchlow	11→4	+5.3
Hiroshi Aoyama	14→12	−0.8
Daniel Pedrosa	2→5	−1.5
Hector Barbera	9→11	−3.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

17.1 °C

Air

max 17.2 °C

45%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

29 km/h

Wind

gusts 67 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:45.513	—	15	299.1
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.736	+0.223	20	298.3
3	Valentino Rossi	01:45.828	+0.315	19	294.4
4	Nicky Hayden	01:46.073	+0.560	18	291.7
5	Loris Capirossi	01:46.108	+0.595	12	291.8
6	Ben Spies	01:46.259	+0.746	19	291.3
7	Randy De Puniet	01:46.371	+0.858	19	293.3
8	Toni Elias	01:46.393	+0.880	20	297.3
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.402	+0.889	20	297.4
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.581	+1.068	17	295.0
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.922	+1.409	18	293.9
12	Hector Barbera	01:46.967	+1.454	14	297.4
13	Karel Abraham	01:47.079	+1.566	20	290.6
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.581	+2.068	21	296.9
15	Josh Hayes	01:48.037	+2.524	20	287.7
16	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:48.382	+2.869	20	290.2

FP2 · 04.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Alvaro Bautista	01:47.975	—	19	295.2
2	Nicky Hayden	01:48.316	+0.341	18	291.8
3	Randy De Puniet	01:48.684	+0.709	18	293.9
4	Karel Abraham	01:49.021	+1.046	19	289.3
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.350	+1.375	17	295.7
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.422	+1.447	20	299.9
7	Valentino Rossi	01:49.613	+1.638	17	295.6
8	Casey Stoner	01:49.674	+1.699	14	298.5
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.820	+1.845	17	299.2
10	Josh Hayes	01:50.509	+2.534	24	287.9
11	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:51.277	+3.302	20	291.5
12	Loris Capirossi	01:51.838	+3.863	18	291.9
13	Hector Barbera	01:51.932	+3.957	15	296.3
14	Ben Spies	01:52.072	+4.097	8	289.4
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:53.286	+5.311	13	287.5
16	Toni Elias	01:54.342	+6.367	10	291.8

FP3 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:32.619	—	19	308.3
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.282	+0.663	20	307.5
3	Randy De Puniet	01:33.743	+1.124	23	305.9
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.929	+1.310	21	308.3
5	Ben Spies	01:33.977	+1.358	19	301.9
6	Valentino Rossi	01:34.268	+1.649	22	302.5
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.309	+1.690	22	305.3
8	Nicky Hayden	01:34.462	+1.843	23	302.3
9	Hector Barbera	01:34.676	+2.057	19	308.6
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.809	+2.190	21	308.0
11	Loris Capirossi	01:35.037	+2.418	18	303.8
12	Karel Abraham	01:35.118	+2.499	22	300.8
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:35.326	+2.707	21	302.0
14	Toni Elias	01:35.899	+3.280	20	305.3
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:36.193	+3.574	24	300.2
16	Josh Hayes	01:36.256	+3.637	25	296.9

Qualifying · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:31.861	—	21	309.9
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.875	+1.014	22	309.4
3	Ben Spies	01:33.057	+1.196	22	303.0
4	Randy De Puniet	01:33.118	+1.257	24	305.1
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.443	+1.582	30	305.6
6	Valentino Rossi	01:33.478	+1.617	27	303.7
7	Nicky Hayden	01:33.656	+1.795	29	304.2
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.824	+1.963	25	306.8
9	Hector Barbera	01:34.186	+2.325	22	307.8
10	Karel Abraham	01:34.265	+2.404	30	306.6
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.329	+2.468	25	303.1
12	Loris Capirossi	01:34.671	+2.810	24	303.3
13	Toni Elias	01:34.680	+2.819	28	313.2
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.838	+2.977	27	305.7
15	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:35.999	+4.138	25	299.9
16	Josh Hayes	01:36.042	+4.181	28	296.1

Warm Up · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Josh Hayes	01:40.469	—	10	292.8
2	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:42.096	+1.627	10	300.8
3	Casey Stoner	01:43.770	+3.301	7	300.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.829	+4.360	10	298.9
5	Nicky Hayden	01:45.121	+4.652	9	296.7
6	Loris Capirossi	01:45.496	+5.027	10	293.9
7	Ben Spies	01:45.559	+5.090	9	296.1
8	Valentino Rossi	01:45.681	+5.212	10	297.4
9	Randy De Puniet	01:45.752	+5.283	8	296.2
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.795	+5.326	10	296.7
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.928	+5.459	10	295.5
12	Karel Abraham	01:46.158	+5.689	11	293.6
13	Toni Elias	01:46.284	+5.815	8	295.9
14	Hector Barbera	01:47.747	+7.278	11	300.9
15	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.757	+7.288	8	294.8
16	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:48.025	+7.556	9	293.2

Race · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	48:18.645	25	30
2	Ben Spies	+0.015	20	30
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+5.936	16	30
4	Cal Crutchlow	+8.718	13	30
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+9.321	11	30
6	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+23.818	10	30
7	Josh Hayes	+33.118	9	30
8	Karel Abraham	+37.952	8	30
9	Loris Capirossi	+48.953	7	30
10	Toni Elias	+52.501	6	30
11	Hector Barbera	+66.519	5	30
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	+68.760	4	30
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	0
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	0
Retired	Randy De Puniet		0	0
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	0

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Casey Stoner	350	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	260	−90
3	Andrea Dovizioso	228	−122
4	Daniel Pedrosa	219	−131
5	Ben Spies	176	−174
6	Marco Simoncelli	139	−211

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/30

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

4.576 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Marco Melandri (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet