Qatar Grand Prix 2010

Everything comes from the order of crossing the line on each lap (official lap-by-lap position sheet, since 2010). An overtake is a pair of riders who swap order between two consecutive laps (moving up because someone retires does not count). A battle is two riders running less than 1 second apart for at least 5 consecutive laps. Lead changes, different leaders, laps led by the winner, the closest finish (gap of 2nd at the line), the biggest comeback (from the official grid to the finishing position) and whether there was a red flag are also counted. Per rider: position on the first lap and at the finish, laps led, overtakes made and suffered, best and worst position.

Keep in mind. Only what happens at the finish line is seen: an overtake and a counter-overtake within the same lap do not show up. It is a measure of the race’s “movement”, not an official overtaking statistic.

For each session with lap data (since 2018) and each rider, two readings. Time attack: their best valid lap (neither cancelled nor a pit lap), with the tyre they were on, and the gap to the best in the session in seconds and in %. Race sim: the median of the clean laps from their long runs (at least 5 consecutive fast laps; in the race and sprint, the whole race), with a minimum of 4 laps, and the gap to the best long-run pace of the session. Top speed and the % of laps done on slicks (below 100 means the track was wet) are also added.

Keep in mind. If a rider has not done any long run, their race sim is left blank. Compare only within the same session: each team tests different things (fuel, tyres, maps) and a long run on old rubber is not comparable with one on fresh rubber.

Sector map

The lap is divided into the 4 official timing sectors. In each dry session (laps on slicks, since 2018), for each rider with at least 3 clean laps their best time in each sector is taken and compared with the best in the session for that sector: 0% is the fastest, 0.5% means half a percent slower. Then the median across all sessions is taken (at least 3 in total since 2018, at least 2 in a given season). To draw the sectors on the track layout, where each sector starts and ends is approximated from how the time is split: if sector 1 takes 25% of the lap, it covers the first 25% of the layout (based on clean race laps from the most recent season).

Keep in mind. A sector is a different physical stretch at each circuit: it tells you where a rider is fast, not whether they are good on the brakes or through corners. The drawn boundaries are approximate (the typical error is 5-10% of the lap) because they assume the same average speed in all sectors, until the official splits are loaded by hand.

Circuit layout

The track drawing comes from OpenStreetMap: of all the segments tagged as a race track, the closed circuit whose length is closest to the official one is taken, the direction of racing is deduced from the one-way tags (or from the number of right and left corners) and the finish line is placed on the pit lane. The elevation of each point comes from a smoothed digital terrain model (Copernicus, 90 m cells, via Open-Meteo), and enables the 3D relief. There are currently 25 circuits. © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL licence).

Keep in mind. The elevation is that of the terrain at a 90 m resolution, not measured on the asphalt: it is useful for seeing climbs and descents, not for giving exact gradients. The position of the sectors on the layout is approximate (see “Sector map”).

For each circuit, using all races since 2018 with at least 8 classified finishers (and a minimum of 3 races), it measures how closely the finishing order resembles the grid (from 0 = no relationship to 1 = identical), how many places riders move on average, how much the race shuffles on the first lap and how much from the first lap to the flag, how often the pole-sitter wins and how many podiums come from the front row. The 0-to-100 index combines two things in equal parts: how faithful the result is to the grid and how little the race reshuffles after the first lap; it is a ranking between circuits (100 = the most “track-position” circuit, where the grid rules; 0 = the most open). It also includes, between teammates, when practice pace and the grid say different things, what % of the time the one with more pace finishes ahead, with its margin of error.

Keep in mind. It is descriptive: it does not feed into the forecast (it was tested and does not improve it). The “pace wins” figure is based on only 5-17 cases per circuit and has a very wide margin of error: treat it as indicative.