Round 2 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2010

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

30.04 – 02.05.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	45:17.538	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.543	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+0.890	16
4	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+9.015	13
5	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.034	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.144	10
7	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+34.489	9
8	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+34.687	8
9	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+36.160	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+36.791	6
11	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+37.155	5
12	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+38.260	4
13	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+38.371	3
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+62.052	2
15	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+0.000	1
DNF	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Loris Capirossi	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.543 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Mika Kallio, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Mika Kallio vs Randy De Puniet (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Daniel Pedrosa (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marco Simoncelli	16	11	+5
Mika Kallio	17	13	+4
Ben Spies	8	6	+2
Randy De Puniet	6	12	−6
Hiroshi Aoyama	12	17	−5
Colin Edwards	7	10	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Mika Kallio	17→7	+6.1
Jorge Lorenzo	2→1	+2.5
Andrea Dovizioso	9→6	+2.0
Aleix Espargaro	15→15	−3.2
Hiroshi Aoyama	12→14	−4.1
Colin Edwards	7→12	−5.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

23.4 °C

Air

max 23.5 °C

49%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:39.731	—	17	274.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.875	+0.144	30	276.3
3	Nicky Hayden	01:40.148	+0.417	25	279.9
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.200	+0.469	25	275.7
5	Valentino Rossi	01:40.359	+0.628	25	271.4
6	Loris Capirossi	01:40.716	+0.985	23	273.7
7	Colin Edwards	01:40.913	+1.182	26	271.4
8	Hector Barbera	01:41.034	+1.303	21	260.9
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.093	+1.362	25	276.2
10	Marco Melandri	01:41.190	+1.459	26	278.9
11	Ben Spies	01:41.200	+1.469	28	275.5
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.277	+1.546	23	273.6
13	Randy De Puniet	01:41.293	+1.562	23	271.2
14	Mika Kallio	01:41.297	+1.566	23	271.6
15	Marco Simoncelli	01:41.533	+1.802	23	264.2
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.742	+2.011	23	270.8
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:41.837	+2.106	27	272.2

FP2 · 01.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.089	—	27	276.0
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.549	+0.460	25	276.9
3	Casey Stoner	01:39.719	+0.630	24	275.9
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.917	+0.828	26	275.2
5	Valentino Rossi	01:39.982	+0.893	27	274.7
6	Ben Spies	01:40.012	+0.923	27	279.6
7	Randy De Puniet	01:40.092	+1.003	23	273.5
8	Nicky Hayden	01:40.246	+1.157	23	280.2
9	Marco Melandri	01:40.370	+1.281	25	277.5
10	Loris Capirossi	01:40.413	+1.324	26	275.9
11	Colin Edwards	01:40.588	+1.499	25	273.1
12	Hector Barbera	01:40.741	+1.652	27	270.3
13	Marco Simoncelli	01:40.836	+1.747	22	275.4
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.846	+1.757	25	273.9
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.925	+1.836	20	271.3
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.065	+1.976	27	277.8
17	Mika Kallio	01:41.223	+2.134	24	276.5

Qualifying · 01.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.202	—	26	278.8
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.487	+0.285	27	277.2
3	Casey Stoner	01:39.511	+0.309	24	276.6
4	Valentino Rossi	01:39.558	+0.356	28	276.8
5	Nicky Hayden	01:39.560	+0.358	24	280.2
6	Randy De Puniet	01:39.591	+0.389	25	276.2
7	Colin Edwards	01:39.970	+0.768	26	277.0
8	Ben Spies	01:39.989	+0.787	28	280.3
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.021	+0.819	27	277.5
10	Marco Melandri	01:40.027	+0.825	26	281.0
11	Loris Capirossi	01:40.206	+1.004	27	275.6
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.322	+1.120	26	275.8
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.416	+1.214	28	278.1
14	Hector Barbera	01:40.482	+1.280	23	275.7
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.555	+1.353	27	271.0
16	Marco Simoncelli	01:40.586	+1.384	26	273.4
17	Mika Kallio	01:40.803	+1.601	26	277.7

Warm Up · 02.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.899	—	12	273.9
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.974	+0.075	12	276.1
3	Nicky Hayden	01:39.975	+0.076	12	277.0
4	Ben Spies	01:40.526	+0.627	11	280.2
5	Loris Capirossi	01:40.596	+0.697	12	272.6
6	Casey Stoner	01:40.604	+0.705	11	276.5
7	Colin Edwards	01:40.667	+0.768	11	271.7
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.674	+0.775	12	275.3
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.752	+0.853	11	269.0
10	Randy De Puniet	01:40.857	+0.958	8	272.7
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.859	+0.960	12	268.0
12	Mika Kallio	01:40.945	+1.046	11	271.1
13	Marco Simoncelli	01:40.960	+1.061	11	268.1
14	Valentino Rossi	01:41.061	+1.162	12	274.2
15	Marco Melandri	01:41.070	+1.171	12	273.8
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.074	+1.175	12	275.9
17	Hector Barbera	01:41.288	+1.389	11	273.7

Race · 02.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	45:17.538	25	27
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+0.543	20	27
3	Valentino Rossi	+0.890	16	27
4	Nicky Hayden	+9.015	13	27
5	Casey Stoner	+10.034	11	27
6	Andrea Dovizioso	+23.144	10	27
7	Mika Kallio	+34.489	9	27
8	Marco Melandri	+34.687	8	27
9	Randy De Puniet	+36.160	7	27
10	Alvaro Bautista	+36.791	6	27
11	Marco Simoncelli	+37.155	5	27
12	Colin Edwards	+38.260	4	27
13	Hector Barbera	+38.371	3	27
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	+62.052	2	27
15	Aleix Espargaro	+0.000	1	24
Retired	Ben Spies		0	7
Retired	Loris Capirossi		0	2

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Valentino Rossi	25	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	20	−5
3	Andrea Dovizioso	16	−9
4	Nicky Hayden	13	−12
5	Ben Spies	11	−14
6	Randy De Puniet	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet