Round 19 of 20 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2024

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

01.11 – 03.11.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	38:04.563	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+3.141	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.484	16
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.230	13
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+13.699	11
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+16.245	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.447	9
8	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.611	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+21.994	7
10	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+22.174	6
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+25.625	5
12	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+27.276	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+27.604	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+27.949	2
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+28.838	1
16	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+38.847	0
17	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+47.599	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+48.956	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Did not start	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Did not start	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:49.230	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.913	9
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.010	7
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.575	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+7.917	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+8.957	4
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.015	3
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.834	2
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+12.091	1
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.840	0
11	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.901	0
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.224	0
13	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+17.115	0
14	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+18.603	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.090	0
16	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.204	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+21.711	0
18	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+23.814	0
19	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+25.898	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+29.778	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 28%	Jorge Martin · 22% · from P2	0.88 / 0.88	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% · from P1	0.71 / 0.71	2.9 / 3.0
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 31% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 31% · from P1	0.61 / 0.71	3.2 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.618	—	+0.221	Medium	17
Jorge Martin	1:59.998	+0.380	+0.457	Medium	17
Enea Bastianini	2:00.337	+0.719	+0.319	Medium	17
Pedro Acosta	2:00.546	+0.928	+0.448	Medium	15
Alex Marquez	2:00.553	+0.935	+0.356	Medium	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.785	+1.167	+0.275	Medium	17
Maverick Viñales	2:00.847	+1.229	+0.292	Medium	17
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.911	+1.293	+0.512	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	2:00.954	+1.336	+0.210	Medium	16
Alex Rins	2:00.955	+1.337	+0.217	Medium	17
Takaaki Nakagami	2:00.956	+1.338	+0.359	Medium	12
Augusto Fernandez	2:01.053	+1.435	+0.437	Medium	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.119	+1.501	+0.209	Medium	17
Luca Marini	2:01.162	+1.544	+0.308	Medium	17
Marco Bezzecchi	2:01.196	+1.578	+0.553	Medium	17
Johann Zarco	2:01.209	+1.591	+0.344	Medium	17
Raul Fernandez	2:01.485	+1.867	+0.667	Medium	17
Lorenzo Savadori	2:02.294	+2.676	+0.781	Medium	17
Andrea Iannone	2:02.567	+2.949	+0.224	Medium	17

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/19

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.141 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P21 to P10.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Pedro Acosta (14 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

10/10

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.913 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Pedro Acosta (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:00:00		Red flag	White flag displayed
Sprint	15:07:51	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:07	Johann Zarco	Technical problem	stopped with technical issue
Race	15:03:31	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out
Race	15:03:31	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:03:31	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:03:57		Red flag	Red flag
Race	15:25:47	Jack Miller	Did not start	did not start
Race	15:25:47	Brad Binder	Did not start	did not start
Race	15:37:15	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:39:09	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:39:42	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:54:42	Takaaki Nakagami	Retired	entered pits and retired

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Augusto Fernandez	21	14	+7
Joan Mir	20	16	+4
Pedro Acosta	13	9	+4
Alex Marquez	3	6	−3
Andrea Iannone	17	19	−2
Francesco Bagnaia	1	2	−1

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Augusto Fernandez	21→10	+5.7
Pedro Acosta	13→5	+5.5
Enea Bastianini	6→3	+3.0
Raul Fernandez	15→16	−4.2
Marc Marquez	5→12	−6.6
Franco Morbidelli	4→14	−9.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.12%	+0.095	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.1 °C

Air

max 29.5 °C

75%

Humidity

1.8 mm

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.795	—	15	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.825	+0.48%	5	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:59.538	+0.743	15	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.313	+0.88%	5	Hard
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.848	+1.053	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.363	+0.10%	5	Hard
4	Jack Miller	02:00.247	+1.452	15	329.2	Medium / Hard	2:01.741	+0.41%	5	Hard
5	Pedro Acosta	02:00.355	+1.560	15	332.3	Medium / Hard	2:02.022	+0.64%	7	Hard
6	Jorge Martin	02:00.442	+1.647	16	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	02:00.491	+1.696	17	328.2	Medium / Hard	2:01.492	+0.20%	5	Hard
8	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.584	+1.789	14	330.2	Medium / Hard	2:01.245	—	7	Hard
9	Andrea Iannone	02:00.651	+1.856	16	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:05.988	+3.91%	6	Hard
10	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.710	+1.915	16	328.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.775	+1.26%	5	Hard
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.718	+1.923	17	327.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.834	+1.31%	5	Hard
12	Marc Marquez	02:00.769	+1.974	15	327.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.789	+1.994	17	330.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.275	+0.85%	6	Hard
14	Enea Bastianini	02:00.816	+2.021	14	333.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
15	Brad Binder	02:00.873	+2.078	19	331.2	Medium / Hard	2:01.601	+0.29%	15	Hard
16	Alex Rins	02:00.958	+2.163	16	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	02:01.207	+2.412	14	329.2	Medium / Hard	2:03.092	+1.52%	5	Hard
18	Lorenzo Savadori	02:01.348	+2.553	15	326.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Joan Mir	02:01.514	+2.719	14	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Luca Marini	02:01.849	+3.054	17	326.2	Medium / Hard	2:02.106	+0.71%	5	Hard
21	Raul Fernandez	02:01.853	+3.058	16	328.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
22	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.426	+3.631	12	326.2	Medium / Hard	—			—

Practice · 01.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.679	—	18	336.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:57.729	+0.050	20	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:59.252	—	6	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	01:57.877	+0.198	20	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:58.141	+0.462	18	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:58.296	+0.617	20	327.2	Soft / Medium	1:59.758	+0.42%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.303	+0.624	18	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.310	+0.631	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:58.336	+0.657	18	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:58.360	+0.681	20	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Marc Marquez	01:58.362	+0.683	18	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Pedro Acosta	01:58.438	+0.759	19	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:59.581	+0.28%	5	Medium
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.460	+0.781	20	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.478	+1.03%	5	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:58.625	+0.946	18	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:58.649	+0.970	15	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.000	+1.321	19	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.371	+2.62%	5	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:59.107	+1.428	20	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.188	+1.509	11	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Luca Marini	01:59.375	+1.696	22	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.613	+1.14%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.402	+1.723	19	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.358	+0.93%	5	Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:59.535	+1.856	20	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Andrea Iannone	01:59.618	+1.939	18	325.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:00.108	+2.429	19	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.658	—	14	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:59.316	+0.15%	9	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:58.762	+0.104	12	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.765	+0.107	10	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:59.196	+0.05%	5	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:58.795	+0.137	11	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:58.796	+0.138	12	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:58.922	+0.264	13	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:59.142	—	6	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:58.993	+0.335	11	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:59.034	+0.376	12	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:59.506	+0.31%	5	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:59.046	+0.388	11	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.065	+0.407	10	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.204	+0.546	11	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Alex Marquez	01:59.222	+0.564	11	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.393	+0.735	12	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.084	+0.79%	7	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.400	+0.742	9	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.437	+0.779	11	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Raul Fernandez	01:59.524	+0.866	10	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:59.530	+0.872	11	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:59.655	+0.997	13	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:00.163	+0.86%	11	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:59.698	+1.040	11	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:59.747	+1.089	11	324.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Andrea Iannone	02:00.497	+1.839	12	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:00.798	+2.140	10	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:57.635	—	6	330.2	Soft / Medium
2	Brad Binder	01:57.800	+0.165	7	336.4	Soft / Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	01:57.839	+0.204	7	334.3	Soft / Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:57.869	+0.234	7	331.2	Soft / Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	01:58.023	+0.388	7	333.3	Soft / Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.107	+0.472	6	333.3	Soft / Medium
7	Andrea Iannone	01:58.183	+0.548	6	329.2	Soft / Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.300	+0.665	7	328.2	Soft / Medium
9	Luca Marini	01:58.520	+0.885	7	329.2	Soft / Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:58.618	+0.983	7	332.3	Soft / Medium
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.006	+1.371	5	331.2	Soft / Medium
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:59.263	+1.628	6	330.2	Soft / Medium

Q2 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.337	—	7	334.3	Soft / Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:56.553	+0.216	7	335.4	Soft / Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:57.275	+0.938	7	331.2	Soft / Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.279	+0.942	7	335.4	Soft / Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:57.301	+0.964	7	334.3	Soft / Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	01:57.366	+1.029	6	337.5	Soft / Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:57.558	+1.221	7	333.3	Soft / Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.592	+1.255	7	330.2	Soft / Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:57.726	+1.389	7	330.2	Soft / Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:57.882	+1.545	7	333.3	Soft / Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:57.971	+1.634	7	334.3	Soft / Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:58.046	+1.709	7	333.3	Soft / Medium

Sprint · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:49.230	12	10	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	+0.913	9	10	— / —	—			—
3	Enea Bastianini	+2.010	7	10	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Alex Marquez	+6.575	6	10	Soft / Medium	1:58.937	—	8	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	+7.917	5	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.054	+0.10%	8	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+8.957	4	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.239	+0.25%	6	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+11.015	3	10	— / —	—			—
8	Jack Miller	+11.834	2	10	— / —	—			—
9	Pedro Acosta	+12.091	1	10	— / —	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.840	0	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.446	+0.43%	8	Medium
11	Alex Rins	+14.901	0	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.790	+0.72%	8	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	+15.224	0	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.622	+0.58%	8	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	+17.115	0	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.842	+0.76%	8	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	+18.603	0	10	— / —	—			—
15	Luca Marini	+19.090	0	10	— / —	—			—
16	Joan Mir	+20.204	0	10	— / —	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.711	0	10	Soft / Medium	1:59.971	+0.87%	7	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	+23.814	0	10	Soft / Medium	2:00.412	+1.24%	8	Medium
19	Andrea Iannone	+25.898	0	10	Soft / Medium	2:00.307	+1.15%	8	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+29.778	0	10	Soft / Medium	2:00.919	+1.67%	8	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	2	— / —	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	7	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 03.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:59.073	—	5	331.2	Soft / Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:59.076	+0.003	5	333.3	Medium / Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.085	+0.012	5	335.4	Soft / Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:59.136	+0.063	5	329.2	Soft / Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:59.136	+0.063	5	337.5	Soft / Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.325	+0.252	5	333.3	Soft / Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.487	+0.414	5	325.3	Soft / Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.497	+0.424	5	331.2	Soft / Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:59.545	+0.472	5	333.3	Soft / Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:59.633	+0.560	5	332.3	Soft / Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:59.676	+0.603	5	324.3	Soft / Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.700	+0.627	5	330.2	Soft / Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:59.813	+0.740	3	329.2	Soft / Medium
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.824	+0.751	5	332.3	Soft / Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	01:59.874	+0.801	5	327.2	Soft / Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.936	+0.863	5	325.3	Soft / Medium
17	Joan Mir	01:59.977	+0.904	5	330.2	Soft / Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	02:00.134	+1.061	5	329.2	Soft / Medium
19	Brad Binder	02:00.236	+1.163	5	330.2	Soft / Medium
20	Luca Marini	02:00.339	+1.266	5	327.2	Medium / Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	02:01.569	+2.496	5	323.3	Soft / Medium
22	Andrea Iannone	02:01.764	+2.691	5	325.3	Soft / Medium

Race · 03.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	38:04.563	25	19	Soft / Medium	1:59.618	—	17	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+3.141	20	19	Medium / Medium	1:59.998	+0.32%	17	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+10.484	16	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.337	+0.60%	17	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	+12.230	13	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.553	+0.78%	17	Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	+13.699	11	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.546	+0.78%	15	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	+16.245	10	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.785	+0.98%	17	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+19.447	9	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.847	+1.03%	17	Medium
8	Alex Rins	+20.611	8	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.955	+1.12%	17	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+21.994	7	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.196	+1.32%	17	Medium
10	Augusto Fernandez	+22.174	6	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.053	+1.20%	17	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	+25.625	5	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.209	+1.33%	17	Medium
12	Marc Marquez	+27.276	4	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.954	+1.12%	16	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	+27.604	3	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.119	+1.26%	17	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	+27.949	2	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.911	+1.08%	16	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+28.838	1	19	Medium / Medium	2:01.162	+1.29%	17	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	+38.847	0	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.485	+1.56%	17	Medium
17	Andrea Iannone	+47.599	0	19	Soft / Medium	2:02.567	+2.47%	17	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+48.956	0	19	Soft / Medium	2:02.294	+2.24%	17	Medium
Did not start	Brad Binder		0	0	— / —	—			—
Did not start	Jack Miller		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	5	Soft / Medium	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	14	Soft / Medium	2:00.956	+1.12%	12	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:59.302	—	+0.457	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	1:59.650	+0.348	+0.319	Medium	7
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.290*	+0.988	+0.553	Medium	4
Luca Marini	2:00.468	+1.166	+0.308	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.561	+1.259	+0.275	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	2:00.825*	+1.523	+0.667	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pedro Acosta	56%	3
2	Marco Bezzecchi	42%	4
3	Johann Zarco	29%	1 ✓
4	Takaaki Nakagami	20%	8
5	Aleix Espargaro	19%	6
6	Brad Binder	11%	2 ✓
7	Raul Fernandez	7%	5
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	11
9	Luca Marini	3%	9
10	Joan Mir	3%	10
11	Andrea Iannone	4%	7
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	36%	64%	88%	1
2	Jorge Martin	22%	51%	80%	2
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	47%	76%	12
4	Fabio Quartararo	5%	33%	67%	8
5	Enea Bastianini	4%	25%	52%	6
6	Jack Miller	6%	22%	55%	7
7	Alex Marquez	1%	13%	40%	3
8	Alex Rins	2%	15%	39%	9
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	9%	30%	4
10	Marc Marquez	2%	9%	26%	5
11	Johann Zarco	2%	10%	30%	11
12	Brad Binder	1%	4%	19%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	28%	60%	76%	87%	11%	—
Jorge Martin	2	22%	56%	77%	94%	4%	1
Alex Marquez	3	14%	43%	64%	82%	15%	4
Franco Morbidelli	4	11%	37%	63%	90%	7%	6
Marc Marquez	5	7%	25%	49%	81%	12%	2
Enea Bastianini	6	6%	22%	43%	81%	11%	3
Jack Miller	7	4%	18%	37%	81%	7%	8
Fabio Quartararo	8	3%	12%	27%	75%	9%	5
Alex Rins	9	2%	8%	18%	63%	17%	11
Brad Binder	10	2%	6%	14%	58%	14%	7
Johann Zarco	11	1%	4%	9%	48%	18%	—
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	3%	7%	44%	9%	14
Pedro Acosta	13	1%	2%	5%	32%	16%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	2%	3%	24%	18%	10
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	4%	18
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	12%	26%	12
Andrea Iannone	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	13%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	11%	17
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	14%	15
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%	16
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	31%	61%	71%	76%	24%	1
Jorge Martin	2	19%	52%	69%	77%	21%	2
Alex Marquez	3	25%	57%	69%	75%	24%	4
Franco Morbidelli	4	11%	41%	65%	81%	17%	14
Marc Marquez	5	4%	23%	49%	79%	17%	12
Enea Bastianini	6	2%	13%	35%	77%	17%	3
Jack Miller	7	1%	7%	21%	63%	24%	—
Fabio Quartararo	8	7%	32%	61%	84%	12%	6
Alex Rins	9	0%	5%	16%	63%	22%	8
Brad Binder	10	0%	1%	5%	46%	13%	—
Johann Zarco	11	0%	0%	2%	30%	18%	11
Maverick Viñales	12	0%	0%	1%	22%	13%	7
Pedro Acosta	13	0%	0%	1%	15%	22%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	5%	19%	70%	16%	9
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	0%	2%	24%	22%	16
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	2%	9%	52%	23%	13
Andrea Iannone	17	0%	0%	1%	18%	27%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	21%	14%	—
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	9%	15
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	31%	—
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	1%	21%	28%	10
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	30%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	41% → 57%	+16	14% → 25%
Fabio Quartararo	16% → 32%	+16	4% → 7%
Francesco Bagnaia	53% → 61%	+8	26% → 31%
Dropping
Enea Bastianini	24% → 13%	−11	6% → 2%
Jack Miller	17% → 7%	−10	4% → 1%
Marc Marquez	30% → 23%	−7	7% → 4%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:58.937	—	+0.356	Medium	8
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.054	+0.117	+0.275	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.239	+0.302	+0.512	Medium	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:59.446	+0.509	+0.553	Medium	8
Aleix Espargaro	1:59.622	+0.685	+0.209	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:59.790	+0.853	+0.217	Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:59.842	+0.905	+0.437	Medium	8
Takaaki Nakagami	1:59.971	+1.034	+0.359	Medium	7
Andrea Iannone	2:00.307	+1.370	+0.224	Medium	8
Raul Fernandez	2:00.412	+1.475	+0.667	Medium	8
Lorenzo Savadori	2:00.919	+1.982	+0.781	Medium	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	453	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	436	−17
3	Marc Marquez	356	−97
4	Enea Bastianini	345	−108
5	Brad Binder	203	−250
6	Pedro Acosta	197	−256

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.535 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P15 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Jack Miller (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:59.650	—	+0.319	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.704	+0.054	+0.221	Medium	18
Alex Marquez	1:59.708	+0.058	+0.356	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	1:59.992	+0.342	+0.457	Medium	18
Brad Binder	2:00.163	+0.513	+0.327	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.427	+0.777	+0.209	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.442	+0.792	+0.275	Medium	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.518	+0.868	+0.512	Medium	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.534	+0.884	+0.553	Medium	18
Raul Fernandez	2:00.564	+0.914	+0.667	Medium	4

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.76%	+0.065	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.