Round 20 of 20 Aftermath

Solidarity Grand Prix 2024

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

15.11 – 17.11.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:24.740	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.474	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+3.810	16
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.322	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+5.753	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.081	10
7	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.393	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+8.709	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.484	7
10	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+10.618	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+10.756	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+13.464	4
13	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.560	3
14	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+19.469	2
15	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.195	1
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.890	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+23.960	0
18	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+29.001	0
19	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+29.145	0
20	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+37.295	0
21	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+39.138	0
22	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+47.654	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:03.173	12
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.942	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.270	7
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.857	6
5	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.942	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.263	4
7	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.303	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.507	2
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.573	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+5.937	0
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+7.413	0
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.344	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.387	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+9.652	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.838	0
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.217	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+17.017	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+17.746	0
19	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.533	0
20	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+20.153	0
21	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+20.547	0
22	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+24.604	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P1	0.88 / 0.88	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	3.5 / 3.5
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 36% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 36% · from P1	0.87 / 0.80	3.2 / 3.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.738	—	+0.221	Soft	20
Marc Marquez	1:40.794	+0.056	+0.210	Soft	22
Joan Mir	1:40.819	+0.081	+0.562	Hard	4
Jorge Martin	1:40.927	+0.189	+0.457	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.970	+0.232	+0.209	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:40.983	+0.245	+0.356	Soft	20
Enea Bastianini	1:41.144	+0.406	+0.319	Soft	21
Brad Binder	1:41.170	+0.432	+0.327	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.177	+0.439	+0.275	Hard	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.264	+0.526	+0.512	Hard	20
Jack Miller	1:41.296	+0.558	+0.105	Hard	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.344	+0.606	+0.193	Hard	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:41.389	+0.651	+0.553	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:41.401	+0.663	+0.292	Hard	21
Pedro Acosta	1:41.510	+0.772	+0.448	Medium	20
Raul Fernandez	1:41.547	+0.809	+0.667	Hard	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.558	+0.820	+0.359	Hard	19
Johann Zarco	1:41.612	+0.874	+0.344	Hard	21
Luca Marini	1:41.750	+1.012	+0.308	Hard	22
Augusto Fernandez	1:41.902	+1.164	+0.437	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:41.904	+1.166	+0.217	Hard	20
Michele Pirro	1:42.143	+1.405	+0.267	Medium	22
Stefan Bradl	1:42.606	+1.868	+0.530	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.474 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P6.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

12/12

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.942 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Jorge Martin (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:27	Pedro Acosta	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:13:45	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:26	Alex Rins	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T1-2
Race	14:38:39	Alex Rins	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Race	14:46:09		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:46:22		Long lap	Double long lap penalty

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	18	10	+8
Enea Bastianini	8	4	+4
Jack Miller	19	15	+4
Maverick Viñales	7	16	−9
Johann Zarco	12	19	−7
Raul Fernandez	17	21	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	18→6	+7.8
Alex Marquez	11→4	+5.3
Marc Marquez	3→2	+2.1
Stefan Bradl	23→22	−5.0
Maverick Viñales	7→15	−8.3
Alex Rins	15→21	−9.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	48%	+0.66%	+0.064	0	0	14.5
Medium	30%	+0.77%	+0.097	0	1	12.1
Soft	22%	+0.24%	+0.079	1	2	4.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.3 °C

Air

max 18.5 °C

63%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 13 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.501	—	18	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.970	—	5	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:40.912	+0.411	16	355.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Alex Marquez	01:40.915	+0.414	20	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.989	+1.01%	6	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:40.952	+0.451	22	356.4	Medium / Medium	1:42.202	+1.22%	12	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:40.971	+0.470	18	352.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:41.069	+0.568	22	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.982	+1.00%	13	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.083	+0.582	18	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.610	+0.63%	5	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:41.127	+0.626	21	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.532	+0.56%	5	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:41.178	+0.677	19	352.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Marc Marquez	01:41.196	+0.695	19	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.853	+0.88%	12	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.246	+0.745	20	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.407	+0.43%	10	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:41.359	+0.858	21	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.916	+0.94%	8	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.396	+0.895	20	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.398	+0.897	17	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:41.481	+0.980	20	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.508	+1.007	18	350.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:41.653	+1.152	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.711	+1.210	17	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:42.623	+1.64%	10	Soft
19	Joan Mir	01:41.717	+1.216	21	351.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Michele Pirro	01:41.898	+1.397	15	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:42.700	+1.71%	10	Medium
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.938	+1.437	19	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.497	+1.51%	11	Medium
22	Raul Fernandez	01:42.070	+1.569	18	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.493	+1.51%	6	Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:42.270	+1.769	19	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.918	—	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.366	—	10	Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.998	+0.080	26	350.6	Hard / Soft	1:40.786	+0.42%	11	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.025	+0.107	22	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.657	+0.29%	5	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.197	+0.279	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:39.214	+0.296	25	354.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:39.224	+0.306	24	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.712	+0.35%	7	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:39.295	+0.377	25	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.337	+0.97%	12	Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:39.361	+0.443	22	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.389	+1.02%	5	Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	01:39.418	+0.500	24	356.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.422	+0.06%	5	Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:39.467	+0.549	23	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Jack Miller	01:39.488	+0.570	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.794	+1.42%	6	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.756	+0.838	22	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.791	+0.873	26	349.5	Hard / Soft	1:41.101	+0.73%	11	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:39.794	+0.876	23	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.366	+1.00%	4	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.810	+0.892	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Luca Marini	01:39.994	+1.076	23	351.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:40.014	+1.096	24	356.4	Hard / Soft	1:41.094	+0.73%	7	Soft
18	Joan Mir	01:40.125	+1.207	23	350.6	Hard / Soft	1:41.229	+0.86%	7	Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	01:40.139	+1.221	22	348.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.404	+1.486	23	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.635	+1.717	22	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:43.028	+2.65%	5	Medium
22	Michele Pirro	01:40.786	+1.868	22	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:42.202	+1.83%	5	Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.028	+2.110	26	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:40.208	—	13	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.316	+0.108	13	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.637	—	6	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:40.336	+0.128	15	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.033	+0.39%	6	Medium
4	Raul Fernandez	01:40.369	+0.161	13	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:40.487	+0.279	13	352.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:40.531	+0.323	15	351.7	Medium / Medium	1:41.586	+0.94%	10	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:40.535	+0.327	13	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.914	+0.28%	6	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.590	+0.382	13	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.833	+0.20%	5	Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:40.615	+0.407	12	356.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.645	+0.437	13	347.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.654	+0.446	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.819	+0.18%	5	Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:40.664	+0.456	15	355.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.297	+0.66%	11	Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.665	+0.457	15	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.012	+0.37%	6	Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.668	+0.460	12	349.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Rins	01:40.772	+0.564	15	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.166	+0.53%	10	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.778	+0.570	14	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.544	+0.90%	10	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:40.802	+0.594	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.310	+0.67%	6	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:40.906	+0.698	14	349.5	Soft / Hard	1:41.402	+0.76%	5	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:40.917	+0.709	13	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.470	+0.83%	5	Soft
20	Joan Mir	01:41.034	+0.826	14	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.620	+0.98%	10	Hard
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.425	+1.217	14	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Michele Pirro	01:41.669	+1.461	11	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.793	+1.585	14	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.145	—	7	349.5	— / —
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.404	+0.259	8	347.2	— / —
3	Joan Mir	01:39.432	+0.287	8	350.6	Hard / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.487	+0.342	8	354.0	Soft / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:39.559	+0.414	8	349.5	Soft / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:39.619	+0.474	8	351.7	Hard / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:39.645	+0.500	8	351.7	— / —
8	Brad Binder	01:39.678	+0.533	8	352.9	— / —
9	Jack Miller	01:39.749	+0.604	6	349.5	— / —
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.793	+0.648	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.166	+1.021	8	348.3	Medium / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:40.252	+1.107	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
13	Stefan Bradl	01:40.423	+1.278	8	350.6	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.641	—	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.696	+0.055	8	351.7	Soft / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:38.798	+0.157	9	352.9	Soft / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:38.849	+0.208	8	355.2	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.886	+0.245	5	355.2	Medium / Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	01:38.949	+0.308	8	356.4	Medium / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:38.992	+0.351	7	350.6	Soft / Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:39.078	+0.437	9	354.0	Medium / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.121	+0.480	8	350.6	Soft / Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.209	+0.568	8	348.3	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:39.252	+0.611	5	350.6	Soft / Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:39.494	+0.853	8	352.9	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	20:03.173	12	12	Hard / Soft	1:39.904	—	10	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.942	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.043	+0.14%	10	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+1.270	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.044	+0.14%	10	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+1.857	6	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.017	+0.11%	10	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	+1.942	5	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.041	+0.14%	10	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+5.263	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.601	+0.70%	10	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	+5.303	3	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.258	+0.35%	10	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+5.507	2	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.173	+0.27%	10	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+5.573	1	12	Hard / Medium	1:40.210	+0.31%	10	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+5.937	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.245	+0.34%	10	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+7.413	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.486	+0.58%	9	Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	+8.344	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.582	+0.68%	10	Soft
13	Joan Mir	+9.387	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.384	+0.48%	9	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+9.652	0	12	Hard / Medium	1:40.505	+0.60%	10	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+11.838	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:40.672	+0.77%	10	Soft
16	Alex Rins	+13.217	0	12	Hard / Medium	1:40.606	+0.70%	10	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+17.017	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:41.199	+1.30%	9	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	+17.746	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:41.054	+1.15%	10	Soft
19	Jack Miller	+18.533	0	12	Hard / Medium	1:41.183	+1.28%	10	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	+20.153	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:41.526	+1.62%	10	Soft
21	Michele Pirro	+20.547	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:41.497	+1.60%	10	Soft
22	Stefan Bradl	+24.604	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:41.779	+1.88%	10	Soft
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	1	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:40.917	—	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:40.948	+0.031	5	349.5	Soft / Medium
3	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.105	+0.188	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.153	+0.236	6	346.1	Hard / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:41.158	+0.241	6	352.9	Soft / Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.415	+0.498	6	351.7	Soft / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:41.522	+0.605	6	355.2	Soft / Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:41.609	+0.692	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
9	Marc Marquez	01:41.682	+0.765	6	350.6	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:41.732	+0.815	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.748	+0.831	6	352.9	Soft / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.776	+0.859	6	343.9	Soft / Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:41.777	+0.860	6	346.1	Soft / Hard
14	Jack Miller	01:41.811	+0.894	6	350.6	Medium / Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.959	+1.042	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
16	Jorge Martin	01:41.980	+1.063	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
17	Marco Bezzecchi	01:42.068	+1.151	6	351.7	Soft / Medium
18	Michele Pirro	01:42.154	+1.237	6	341.7	Soft / Medium
19	Alex Marquez	01:42.219	+1.302	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
20	Joan Mir	01:42.323	+1.406	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:42.533	+1.616	6	346.1	Soft / Hard
22	Stefan Bradl	01:43.124	+2.207	6	348.3	Soft / Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —

Race · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:24.740	25	24	Hard / Soft	1:40.738	—	20	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+1.474	20	24	Hard / Soft	1:40.794	+0.06%	22	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+3.810	16	24	Hard / Medium	1:40.927	+0.19%	22	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	+5.322	13	24	Hard / Soft	1:40.983	+0.24%	20	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	+5.753	11	24	Hard / Medium	1:40.970	+0.23%	22	Medium
6	Brad Binder	+7.081	10	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.170	+0.43%	21	Medium
7	Enea Bastianini	+7.393	9	24	Hard / Soft	1:41.144	+0.40%	21	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	+8.709	8	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.264	+0.52%	20	Hard
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.484	7	24	Hard / Soft	1:41.389	+0.65%	21	Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	+10.618	6	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.510	+0.77%	20	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	+10.756	5	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.177	+0.44%	22	Hard
12	Miguel Oliveira	+13.464	4	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.344	+0.60%	20	Hard
13	Jack Miller	+14.560	3	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.296	+0.55%	21	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	+19.469	2	24	Medium / Hard	1:41.612	+0.87%	21	Hard
15	Maverick Viñales	+22.195	1	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.401	+0.66%	21	Hard
16	Luca Marini	+23.890	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.750	+1.01%	22	Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+23.960	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.558	+0.81%	19	Hard
18	Raul Fernandez	+29.001	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.547	+0.80%	20	Hard
19	Augusto Fernandez	+29.145	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.902	+1.16%	22	Medium
20	Michele Pirro	+37.295	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:42.143	+1.40%	22	Medium
21	Alex Rins	+39.138	0	24	Hard / Hard	1:41.904	+1.16%	20	Hard
22	Stefan Bradl	+47.654	0	24	Hard / Medium	1:42.606	+1.85%	22	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	6	Hard / Hard	1:40.819	+0.08%	4	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.459*	—	+0.221	Medium	4
Pedro Acosta	1:40.852*	+0.393	+0.448	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:40.902*	+0.443	+0.327	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:40.983*	+0.524	+0.105	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:41.229*	+0.770	+0.457	Medium	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.273*	+0.814	+0.193	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:41.536*	+1.077	+0.308	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:41.744*	+1.285	+0.217	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:42.758	+2.299	+0.530	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	56%	9
2	Franco Morbidelli	42%	1 ✓
3	Takaaki Nakagami	30%	10
4	Fabio Quartararo	20%	2 ✓
5	Alex Rins	19%	5
6	Raul Fernandez	11%	7
7	Brad Binder	7%	8
8	Luca Marini	4%	6
9	Joan Mir	3%	3
10	Miguel Oliveira	3%	4
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	11
12	Michele Pirro	2%	12
13	Stefan Bradl	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	36%	65%	88%	7
2	Francesco Bagnaia	22%	52%	80%	1
3	Aleix Espargaro	14%	46%	76%	2
4	Alex Marquez	5%	33%	67%	11
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	24%	53%	9
6	Marc Marquez	6%	22%	55%	3
7	Jorge Martin	1%	13%	40%	4
8	Pedro Acosta	2%	15%	38%	6
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	9%	30%	5
10	Johann Zarco	2%	9%	26%	12
11	Enea Bastianini	2%	10%	30%	8
12	Fabio Quartararo	1%	4%	19%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	60%	75%	85%	13%	1
Aleix Espargaro	2	16%	43%	59%	71%	25%	4
Marc Marquez	3	16%	46%	66%	85%	12%	7
Jorge Martin	4	12%	42%	66%	92%	4%	3
Franco Morbidelli	5	8%	30%	56%	88%	6%	6
Pedro Acosta	6	5%	21%	42%	78%	15%	—
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	18%	38%	81%	9%	12
Enea Bastianini	8	3%	13%	29%	75%	10%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	7%	18%	64%	18%	8
Fabio Quartararo	10	2%	5%	15%	63%	9%	10
Alex Marquez	11	1%	4%	11%	51%	14%	5
Johann Zarco	12	1%	2%	6%	38%	20%	11
Joan Mir	13	1%	2%	5%	30%	25%	13
Miguel Oliveira	14	1%	2%	4%	28%	13%	18
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	16%	16
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	14%	15
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	12%	4%	14
Brad Binder	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	13%	9
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	6%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	11%	17
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	15%	20
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	21
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	22

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	36%	63%	71%	77%	24%	1
Aleix Espargaro	2	25%	57%	69%	76%	23%	5
Marc Marquez	3	5%	25%	47%	77%	17%	2
Jorge Martin	4	14%	44%	63%	76%	20%	3
Franco Morbidelli	5	0%	3%	11%	55%	17%	8
Pedro Acosta	6	4%	23%	45%	75%	22%	10
Maverick Viñales	7	1%	6%	16%	64%	13%	15
Enea Bastianini	8	5%	25%	47%	77%	16%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	16%	37%	75%	16%	9
Fabio Quartararo	10	1%	10%	26%	74%	12%	11
Alex Marquez	11	6%	25%	47%	72%	24%	4
Johann Zarco	12	0%	3%	10%	53%	18%	14
Joan Mir	13	0%	1%	5%	34%	32%	—
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	0%	1%	16%	21%	12
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	22%	21
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	1%	17%	9%	16
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	20%	21%	18
Brad Binder	18	0%	1%	3%	33%	13%	6
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	17
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	27%	19
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	20
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	18%	22

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	5% → 25%	+20	1% → 6%
Francesco Bagnaia	52% → 63%	+11	26% → 36%
Enea Bastianini	15% → 25%	+10	3% → 5%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli	30% → 3%	−28	8% → 0%
Marc Marquez	45% → 25%	−20	16% → 5%
Maverick Viñales	19% → 6%	−13	5% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.904	—	+0.221	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.017	+0.113	+0.209	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:40.041	+0.137	+0.356	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:40.043	+0.139	+0.319	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:40.044	+0.140	+0.457	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:40.173	+0.269	+0.553	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:40.210	+0.306	+0.327	Medium	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.245	+0.341	+0.275	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:40.258	+0.354	+0.210	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:40.384	+0.480	+0.562	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:40.486	+0.582	+0.344	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:40.505	+0.601	+0.667	Medium	10
Maverick Viñales	1:40.582	+0.678	+0.292	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.601	+0.697	+0.512	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:40.606	+0.702	+0.217	Medium	10
Luca Marini	1:40.672	+0.768	+0.308	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.054	+1.150	+0.193	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:41.183	+1.279	+0.105	Medium	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.199	+1.295	+0.359	Soft	9
Michele Pirro	1:41.497	+1.593	+0.267	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:41.526	+1.622	+0.437	Soft	10
Stefan Bradl	1:41.779	+1.875	+0.530	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	485	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	461	−24
3	Marc Marquez	369	−116
4	Enea Bastianini	368	−117
5	Pedro Acosta	209	−276
6	Brad Binder	206	−279

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati

Attrition here

Average here 4% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2024	1/23	4%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet