MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 20 of 20 Aftermath

Solidarity Grand Prix 2024

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Spain

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991
15.11 – 17.11.2024
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team40:24.74025
2Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+1.47420
3Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+3.81016
4Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+5.32213
5Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+5.75311
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.08110
7Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+7.3939
8Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+8.7098
9Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+10.4847
10Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+10.6186
11Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+10.7565
12Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+13.4644
13Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.5603
14Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+19.4692
15Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+22.1951
16Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+23.8900
17Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+23.9600
18Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+29.0010
19Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+29.1450
20Michele PirroDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+37.2950
21Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+39.1380
22Stefan BradlHondaHRC Test Team+47.6540
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team20:03.17312
2Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.9429
3Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+1.2707
4Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+1.8576
5Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+1.9425
6Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+5.2634
7Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+5.3033
8Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+5.5072
9Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+5.5731
10Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+5.9370
11Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+7.4130
12Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+8.3440
13Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+9.3870
14Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+9.6520
15Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+11.8380
16Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+13.2170
17Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+17.0170
18Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+17.7460
19Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+18.5330
20Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+20.1530
21Michele PirroDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+20.5470
22Stefan BradlHondaHRC Test Team+24.6040
DNFPedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Retired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintFrancesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P10.88 / 0.882.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)Francesco Bagnaia · 26% ✓Francesco Bagnaia · 26% · from P10.80 / 0.803.5 / 3.5
Race (after the sprint)Francesco Bagnaia · 36% ✓Francesco Bagnaia · 36% · from P10.87 / 0.803.2 / 3.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:40.738—+0.221Soft20
Marc Marquez1:40.794+0.056+0.210Soft22
Joan Mir1:40.819+0.081+0.562Hard4
Jorge Martin1:40.927+0.189+0.457Medium22
Aleix Espargaro1:40.970+0.232+0.209Medium22
Alex Marquez1:40.983+0.245+0.356Soft20
Enea Bastianini1:41.144+0.406+0.319Soft21
Brad Binder1:41.170+0.432+0.327Medium21
Fabio Quartararo1:41.177+0.439+0.275Hard22
Franco Morbidelli1:41.264+0.526+0.512Hard20
Jack Miller1:41.296+0.558+0.105Hard21
Miguel Oliveira1:41.344+0.606+0.193Hard20
Marco Bezzecchi1:41.389+0.651+0.553Soft21
Maverick Viñales1:41.401+0.663+0.292Hard21
Pedro Acosta1:41.510+0.772+0.448Medium20
Raul Fernandez1:41.547+0.809+0.667Hard20
Takaaki Nakagami1:41.558+0.820+0.359Hard19
Johann Zarco1:41.612+0.874+0.344Hard21
Luca Marini1:41.750+1.012+0.308Hard22
Augusto Fernandez1:41.902+1.164+0.437Medium22
Alex Rins1:41.904+1.166+0.217Hard20
Michele Pirro1:42.143+1.405+0.267Medium22
Stefan Bradl1:42.606+1.868+0.530Medium22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

54
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
24/24
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
1.474 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P6.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

34
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
12/12
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.942 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Jorge Martin (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:04:27Pedro AcostaRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:13:45Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:32:26Alex RinsLong lapLong lap penalty due to shortcut at T1-2
Race14:38:39Alex RinsLong lapDouble long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Race14:46:09Long lapLong lap penalty
Race14:46:22Long lapDouble long lap penalty

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Brad Binder18→6+7.8
Alex Marquez11→4+5.3
Marc Marquez3→2+2.1
Stefan Bradl23→22−5.0
Maverick Viñales7→15−8.3
Alex Rins15→21−9.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Hard48%+0.66%+0.0640014.5
Medium30%+0.77%+0.0970112.1
Soft22%+0.24%+0.079124.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
18.3 °C
Air
max 18.5 °C
63%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
5 km/h
Wind
gusts 13 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Takaaki Nakagami01:40.501—18345.0Soft / Medium1:40.970—5Medium
2Pedro Acosta01:40.912+0.41116355.2Soft / Medium——
3Alex Marquez01:40.915+0.41420347.2Soft / Medium1:41.989+1.01%6Medium
4Brad Binder01:40.952+0.45122356.4Medium / Medium1:42.202+1.22%12Medium
5Jorge Martin01:40.971+0.47018352.9Soft / Medium——
6Enea Bastianini01:41.069+0.56822352.9Soft / Medium1:41.982+1.00%13Medium
7Francesco Bagnaia01:41.083+0.58218350.6Soft / Medium1:41.610+0.63%5Medium
8Maverick Viñales01:41.127+0.62621349.5Soft / Medium1:41.532+0.56%5Medium
9Jack Miller01:41.178+0.67719352.9Medium / Medium——
10Marc Marquez01:41.196+0.69519348.3Soft / Medium1:41.853+0.88%12Medium
11Fabio Quartararo01:41.246+0.74520350.6Soft / Medium1:41.407+0.43%10Medium
12Luca Marini01:41.359+0.85821348.3Soft / Medium1:41.916+0.94%8Medium
13Franco Morbidelli01:41.396+0.89520354.0Soft / Medium——
14Aleix Espargaro01:41.398+0.89717354.0Soft / Medium——
15Johann Zarco01:41.481+0.98020349.5Soft / Medium——
16Marco Bezzecchi01:41.508+1.00718350.6Soft / Medium——
17Alex Rins01:41.653+1.15219347.2Soft / Medium——
18Augusto Fernandez01:41.711+1.21017349.5Medium / Soft1:42.623+1.64%10Soft
19Joan Mir01:41.717+1.21621351.7Soft / Medium——
20Michele Pirro01:41.898+1.39715343.9Medium / Soft1:42.700+1.71%10Medium
21Miguel Oliveira01:41.938+1.43719352.9Soft / Medium1:42.497+1.51%11Medium
22Raul Fernandez01:42.070+1.56918347.2Soft / Medium1:42.493+1.51%6Medium
23Stefan Bradl01:42.270+1.76919346.1Soft / Medium——
Practice · 15.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia01:38.918—24351.7Medium / Soft1:40.366—10Soft
2Marco Bezzecchi01:38.998+0.08026350.6Hard / Soft1:40.786+0.42%11Soft
3Aleix Espargaro01:39.025+0.10722352.9Soft / Soft1:40.657+0.29%5Medium
4Johann Zarco01:39.197+0.27924351.7Medium / Soft——
5Jorge Martin01:39.214+0.29625354.0Soft / Soft——
6Maverick Viñales01:39.224+0.30624352.9Soft / Soft1:40.712+0.35%7Medium
7Alex Marquez01:39.295+0.37725348.3Soft / Soft1:41.337+0.97%12Soft
8Marc Marquez01:39.361+0.44322350.6Soft / Soft1:41.389+1.02%5Soft
9Pedro Acosta01:39.418+0.50024356.4Medium / Soft1:40.422+0.06%5Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:39.467+0.54923350.6Medium / Soft——
11Jack Miller01:39.488+0.57024351.7Medium / Soft1:41.794+1.42%6Soft
12Takaaki Nakagami01:39.756+0.83822343.9Soft / Soft——
13Fabio Quartararo01:39.791+0.87326349.5Hard / Soft1:41.101+0.73%11Soft
14Alex Rins01:39.794+0.87623349.5Medium / Soft1:41.366+1.00%4Soft
15Franco Morbidelli01:39.810+0.89220349.5Medium / Soft——
16Luca Marini01:39.994+1.07623351.7Hard / Soft——
17Brad Binder01:40.014+1.09624356.4Hard / Soft1:41.094+0.73%7Soft
18Joan Mir01:40.125+1.20723350.6Hard / Soft1:41.229+0.86%7Medium
19Raul Fernandez01:40.139+1.22122348.3Hard / Soft——
20Miguel Oliveira01:40.404+1.48623351.7Soft / Soft——
21Augusto Fernandez01:40.635+1.71722348.3Medium / Soft1:43.028+2.65%5Medium
22Michele Pirro01:40.786+1.86822345.0Soft / Soft1:42.202+1.83%5Medium
23Stefan Bradl01:41.028+2.11026346.1Soft / Soft——
FP2 · 16.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales01:40.208—13347.2Soft / Soft——
2Franco Morbidelli01:40.316+0.10813351.7Soft / Soft1:40.637—6Soft
3Alex Marquez01:40.336+0.12815349.5Medium / Soft1:41.033+0.39%6Medium
4Raul Fernandez01:40.369+0.16113349.5Soft / Medium——
5Pedro Acosta01:40.487+0.27913352.9Medium / Medium——
6Jack Miller01:40.531+0.32315351.7Medium / Medium1:41.586+0.94%10Medium
7Marc Marquez01:40.535+0.32713350.6Medium / Soft1:40.914+0.28%6Soft
8Aleix Espargaro01:40.590+0.38213354.0Medium / Soft1:40.833+0.20%5Soft
9Brad Binder01:40.615+0.40712356.4Medium / Medium——
10Takaaki Nakagami01:40.645+0.43713347.2Soft / Hard——
11Francesco Bagnaia01:40.654+0.44614351.7Medium / Soft1:40.819+0.18%5Soft
12Jorge Martin01:40.664+0.45615355.2Medium / Soft1:41.297+0.66%11Medium
13Marco Bezzecchi01:40.665+0.45715352.9Soft / Soft1:41.012+0.37%6Soft
14Fabio Quartararo01:40.668+0.46012349.5Soft / Soft——
15Alex Rins01:40.772+0.56415351.7Soft / Soft1:41.166+0.53%10Medium
16Miguel Oliveira01:40.778+0.57014352.9Soft / Medium1:41.544+0.90%10Medium
17Enea Bastianini01:40.802+0.59414351.7Medium / Soft1:41.310+0.67%6Soft
18Johann Zarco01:40.906+0.69814349.5Soft / Hard1:41.402+0.76%5Soft
19Luca Marini01:40.917+0.70913350.6Soft / Soft1:41.470+0.83%5Soft
20Joan Mir01:41.034+0.82614349.5Soft / Soft1:41.620+0.98%10Hard
21Augusto Fernandez01:41.425+1.21714348.3Soft / Medium——
22Michele Pirro01:41.669+1.46111347.2Soft / Soft——
23Stefan Bradl01:41.793+1.58514348.3Soft / Soft——
Q1 · 16.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Franco Morbidelli01:39.145—7349.5— / —
2Fabio Quartararo01:39.404+0.2598347.2— / —
3Joan Mir01:39.432+0.2878350.6Hard / Soft
4Miguel Oliveira01:39.487+0.3428354.0Soft / Soft
5Alex Rins01:39.559+0.4148349.5Soft / Soft
6Luca Marini01:39.619+0.4748351.7Hard / Soft
7Raul Fernandez01:39.645+0.5008351.7— / —
8Brad Binder01:39.678+0.5338352.9— / —
9Jack Miller01:39.749+0.6046349.5— / —
10Takaaki Nakagami01:39.793+0.6488345.0Soft / Soft
11Augusto Fernandez01:40.166+1.0218348.3Medium / Soft
12Michele Pirro01:40.252+1.1077342.8Soft / Soft
13Stefan Bradl01:40.423+1.2788350.6Soft / Soft
Q2 · 16.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Francesco Bagnaia01:38.641—8354.0Medium / Soft
2Aleix Espargaro01:38.696+0.0558351.7Soft / Soft
3Marc Marquez01:38.798+0.1579352.9Soft / Soft
4Jorge Martin01:38.849+0.2088355.2Soft / Soft
5Franco Morbidelli01:38.886+0.2455355.2Medium / Soft
6Pedro Acosta01:38.949+0.3088356.4Medium / Soft
7Maverick Viñales01:38.992+0.3517350.6Soft / Soft
8Enea Bastianini01:39.078+0.4379354.0Medium / Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi01:39.121+0.4808350.6Soft / Soft
10Fabio Quartararo01:39.209+0.5688348.3Soft / Soft
11Alex Marquez01:39.252+0.6115350.6Soft / Soft
12Johann Zarco01:39.494+0.8538352.9Medium / Soft
Sprint · 16.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia20:03.1731212Hard / Soft1:39.904—10Soft
2Enea Bastianini+0.942912Medium / Soft1:40.043+0.14%10Soft
3Jorge Martin+1.270712Medium / Soft1:40.044+0.14%10Soft
4Aleix Espargaro+1.857612Hard / Soft1:40.017+0.11%10Soft
5Alex Marquez+1.942512Hard / Soft1:40.041+0.14%10Soft
6Franco Morbidelli+5.263412Medium / Soft1:40.601+0.70%10Soft
7Marc Marquez+5.303312Hard / Soft1:40.258+0.35%10Soft
8Marco Bezzecchi+5.507212Hard / Soft1:40.173+0.27%10Soft
9Brad Binder+5.573112Hard / Medium1:40.210+0.31%10Medium
10Fabio Quartararo+5.937012Hard / Soft1:40.245+0.34%10Soft
11Johann Zarco+7.413012Medium / Soft1:40.486+0.58%9Soft
12Maverick Viñales+8.344012Medium / Soft1:40.582+0.68%10Soft
13Joan Mir+9.387012Hard / Soft1:40.384+0.48%9Soft
14Raul Fernandez+9.652012Hard / Medium1:40.505+0.60%10Medium
15Luca Marini+11.838012Hard / Soft1:40.672+0.77%10Soft
16Alex Rins+13.217012Hard / Medium1:40.606+0.70%10Medium
17Takaaki Nakagami+17.017012Hard / Soft1:41.199+1.30%9Soft
18Miguel Oliveira+17.746012Hard / Soft1:41.054+1.15%10Soft
19Jack Miller+18.533012Hard / Medium1:41.183+1.28%10Medium
20Augusto Fernandez+20.153012Hard / Soft1:41.526+1.62%10Soft
21Michele Pirro+20.547012Hard / Soft1:41.497+1.60%10Soft
22Stefan Bradl+24.604012Hard / Soft1:41.779+1.88%10Soft
RetiredPedro Acosta01— / ———
Warm Up · 17.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Raul Fernandez01:40.917—6347.2Soft / Soft
2Pedro Acosta01:40.948+0.0315349.5Soft / Medium
3Augusto Fernandez01:41.105+0.1886347.2Soft / Medium
4Fabio Quartararo01:41.153+0.2366346.1Hard / Soft
5Enea Bastianini01:41.158+0.2416352.9Soft / Medium
6Miguel Oliveira01:41.415+0.4986351.7Soft / Medium
7Brad Binder01:41.522+0.6056355.2Soft / Medium
8Maverick Viñales01:41.609+0.6926346.1Soft / Medium
9Marc Marquez01:41.682+0.7656350.6Soft / Soft
10Alex Rins01:41.732+0.8156347.2Soft / Soft
11Francesco Bagnaia01:41.748+0.8316352.9Soft / Soft
12Takaaki Nakagami01:41.776+0.8596343.9Soft / Soft
13Johann Zarco01:41.777+0.8606346.1Soft / Hard
14Jack Miller01:41.811+0.8946350.6Medium / Soft
15Franco Morbidelli01:41.959+1.0426347.2Soft / Medium
16Jorge Martin01:41.980+1.0636350.6Soft / Medium
17Marco Bezzecchi01:42.068+1.1516351.7Soft / Medium
18Michele Pirro01:42.154+1.2376341.7Soft / Medium
19Alex Marquez01:42.219+1.3026347.2Soft / Soft
20Joan Mir01:42.323+1.4066347.2Soft / Medium
21Luca Marini01:42.533+1.6166346.1Soft / Hard
22Stefan Bradl01:43.124+2.2076348.3Soft / Soft
RetiredAleix Espargaro—00.0— / —
Race · 17.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia40:24.7402524Hard / Soft1:40.738—20Soft
2Marc Marquez+1.4742024Hard / Soft1:40.794+0.06%22Soft
3Jorge Martin+3.8101624Hard / Medium1:40.927+0.19%22Medium
4Alex Marquez+5.3221324Hard / Soft1:40.983+0.24%20Soft
5Aleix Espargaro+5.7531124Hard / Medium1:40.970+0.23%22Medium
6Brad Binder+7.0811024Hard / Medium1:41.170+0.43%21Medium
7Enea Bastianini+7.393924Hard / Soft1:41.144+0.40%21Soft
8Franco Morbidelli+8.709824Hard / Hard1:41.264+0.52%20Hard
9Marco Bezzecchi+10.484724Hard / Soft1:41.389+0.65%21Soft
10Pedro Acosta+10.618624Hard / Medium1:41.510+0.77%20Medium
11Fabio Quartararo+10.756524Hard / Hard1:41.177+0.44%22Hard
12Miguel Oliveira+13.464424Hard / Hard1:41.344+0.60%20Hard
13Jack Miller+14.560324Hard / Hard1:41.296+0.55%21Hard
14Johann Zarco+19.469224Medium / Hard1:41.612+0.87%21Hard
15Maverick Viñales+22.195124Hard / Hard1:41.401+0.66%21Hard
16Luca Marini+23.890024Hard / Hard1:41.750+1.01%22Hard
17Takaaki Nakagami+23.960024Hard / Hard1:41.558+0.81%19Hard
18Raul Fernandez+29.001024Hard / Hard1:41.547+0.80%20Hard
19Augusto Fernandez+29.145024Hard / Medium1:41.902+1.16%22Medium
20Michele Pirro+37.295024Hard / Medium1:42.143+1.40%22Medium
21Alex Rins+39.138024Hard / Hard1:41.904+1.16%20Hard
22Stefan Bradl+47.654024Hard / Medium1:42.606+1.85%22Medium
RetiredJoan Mir06Hard / Hard1:40.819+0.08%4Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:40.459*—+0.221Medium4
Pedro Acosta1:40.852*+0.393+0.448Medium3
Brad Binder1:40.902*+0.443+0.327Medium4
Jack Miller1:40.983*+0.524+0.105Medium4
Jorge Martin1:41.229*+0.770+0.457Medium4
Miguel Oliveira1:41.273*+0.814+0.193Medium4
Luca Marini1:41.536*+1.077+0.308Medium3
Alex Rins1:41.744*+1.285+0.217Medium4
Stefan Bradl1:42.758+2.299+0.530Medium6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia130%60%75%85%13%1
Aleix Espargaro216%43%59%71%25%4
Marc Marquez316%46%66%85%12%7
Jorge Martin412%42%66%92%4%3
Franco Morbidelli58%30%56%88%6%6
Pedro Acosta65%21%42%78%15%—
Maverick Viñales74%18%38%81%9%12
Enea Bastianini83%13%29%75%10%2
Marco Bezzecchi92%7%18%64%18%8
Fabio Quartararo102%5%15%63%9%10
Alex Marquez111%4%11%51%14%5
Johann Zarco121%2%6%38%20%11
Joan Mir131%2%5%30%25%13
Miguel Oliveira141%2%4%28%13%18
Alex Rins150%1%3%22%16%16
Luca Marini160%1%2%16%14%15
Raul Fernandez170%1%2%12%4%14
Brad Binder180%1%1%7%13%9
Jack Miller190%0%1%6%6%19
Takaaki Nakagami200%0%1%4%11%17
Augusto Fernandez210%0%1%3%15%20
Michele Pirro220%0%0%2%16%21
Stefan Bradl230%0%0%1%28%22

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia136%63%71%77%24%1
Aleix Espargaro225%57%69%76%23%5
Marc Marquez35%25%47%77%17%2
Jorge Martin414%44%63%76%20%3
Franco Morbidelli50%3%11%55%17%8
Pedro Acosta64%23%45%75%22%10
Maverick Viñales71%6%16%64%13%15
Enea Bastianini85%25%47%77%16%7
Marco Bezzecchi92%16%37%75%16%9
Fabio Quartararo101%10%26%74%12%11
Alex Marquez116%25%47%72%24%4
Johann Zarco120%3%10%53%18%14
Joan Mir130%1%5%34%32%—
Miguel Oliveira140%0%1%16%21%12
Alex Rins150%0%1%21%22%21
Luca Marini160%0%1%17%9%16
Raul Fernandez170%0%1%20%21%18
Brad Binder180%1%3%33%13%6
Jack Miller190%0%0%3%24%13
Takaaki Nakagami200%0%0%3%14%17
Augusto Fernandez210%0%0%1%27%19
Michele Pirro220%0%0%1%21%20
Stefan Bradl230%0%0%0%18%22

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Alex Marquez5% → 25%+201% → 6%
Francesco Bagnaia52% → 63%+1126% → 36%
Enea Bastianini15% → 25%+103% → 5%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli30% → 3%−288% → 0%
Marc Marquez45% → 25%−2016% → 5%
Maverick Viñales19% → 6%−135% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:39.904—+0.221Soft10
Aleix Espargaro1:40.017+0.113+0.209Soft10
Alex Marquez1:40.041+0.137+0.356Soft10
Enea Bastianini1:40.043+0.139+0.319Soft10
Jorge Martin1:40.044+0.140+0.457Soft10
Marco Bezzecchi1:40.173+0.269+0.553Soft10
Brad Binder1:40.210+0.306+0.327Medium10
Fabio Quartararo1:40.245+0.341+0.275Soft10
Marc Marquez1:40.258+0.354+0.210Soft10
Joan Mir1:40.384+0.480+0.562Soft9
Johann Zarco1:40.486+0.582+0.344Soft9
Raul Fernandez1:40.505+0.601+0.667Medium10
Maverick Viñales1:40.582+0.678+0.292Soft10
Franco Morbidelli1:40.601+0.697+0.512Soft10
Alex Rins1:40.606+0.702+0.217Medium10
Luca Marini1:40.672+0.768+0.308Soft10
Miguel Oliveira1:41.054+1.150+0.193Soft10
Jack Miller1:41.183+1.279+0.105Medium10
Takaaki Nakagami1:41.199+1.295+0.359Soft9
Michele Pirro1:41.497+1.593+0.267Soft10
Augusto Fernandez1:41.526+1.622+0.437Soft10
Stefan Bradl1:41.779+1.875+0.530Soft10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · AcostaS2 · A. EspargaroS3 · BastianiniS4 · A. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15
Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati

Attrition here

Average here 4% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20241/234%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet