Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2015

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

16.10 – 18.10.2015

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:33.849	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+0.249	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.930	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+1.058	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.062	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+6.800	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	+9.375	9
8	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+18.401	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+20.039	7
10	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+20.657	6
11	Scott Redding	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+21.846	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+22.840	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+29.168	3
14	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+37.244	2
15	Jack Miller	Honda	CWM LCR Honda	+40.192	1
16	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+48.263	0
17	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+48.572	0
18	Loris Baz	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	+48.677	0
19	Eugene Laverty	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	+50.201	0
20	Mike Di Meglio	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+50.262	0
21	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+50.277	0
22	Toni Elias	Yamaha Forward	Forward Racing	+80.942	0
23	Anthony West	Honda	AB Motoracing	+83.454	0
DNF	Damian Cudlin	ART	Octo IodaRacing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Aspar MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.97 / 0.97	2.3 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.249 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P18 to P14.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Daniel Pedrosa (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:01:53		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:16:06	Nicky Hayden	Retired	Retired
Race	16:24:31	Damian Cudlin	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alvaro Bautista	18	14	+4
Danilo Petrucci	13	9	+4
Stefan Bradl	21	17	+4
Hector Barbera	14	22	−8
Scott Redding	11	15	−4
Eugene Laverty	16	19	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	7→4	+2.7
Jorge Lorenzo	3→2	+2.1
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Stefan Bradl	21→21	−5.3
Anthony West	23→23	−6.0
Eugene Laverty	16→19	−6.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

14.5 °C

Air

max 14.7 °C

56%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.047	—	12	330.6
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.395	+0.348	15	336.3
3	Valentino Rossi	01:30.572	+0.525	15	328.8
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.669	+0.622	12	328.0
5	Jack Miller	01:30.712	+0.665	15	329.4
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.782	+0.735	19	338.5
7	Bradley Smith	01:30.902	+0.855	17	333.6
8	Andrea Iannone	01:30.967	+0.920	15	339.4
9	Pol Espargaro	01:31.111	+1.064	18	333.9
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.240	+1.193	15	329.7
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.260	+1.213	13	329.7
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.385	+1.338	16	341.9
13	Nicky Hayden	01:31.506	+1.459	18	327.7
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.670	+1.623	15	332.3
15	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.670	+1.623	13	329.8
16	Hector Barbera	01:31.702	+1.655	11	324.3
17	Scott Redding	01:31.772	+1.725	15	328.7
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:32.121	+2.074	16	338.7
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.173	+2.126	15	328.0
20	Eugene Laverty	01:32.589	+2.542	15	323.8
21	Loris Baz	01:32.756	+2.709	15	324.7
22	Toni Elias	01:32.959	+2.912	14	326.9
23	Stefan Bradl	01:33.558	+3.511	16	325.3
24	Anthony West	01:33.790	+3.743	20	321.1
25	Damian Cudlin	01:36.091	+6.044	12	307.9

FP2 · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.383	—	19	336.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.433	+0.050	18	331.4
3	Maverick Viñales	01:29.518	+0.135	20	330.4
4	Andrea Iannone	01:29.544	+0.161	19	346.1
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.579	+0.196	20	337.5
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.876	+0.493	19	328.4
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.021	+0.638	21	335.9
8	Bradley Smith	01:30.032	+0.649	20	334.3
9	Valentino Rossi	01:30.041	+0.658	21	332.5
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.113	+0.730	20	327.5
11	Jack Miller	01:30.127	+0.744	20	331.5
12	Nicky Hayden	01:30.184	+0.801	21	328.5
13	Hector Barbera	01:30.278	+0.895	20	331.8
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.451	+1.068	19	343.4
15	Pol Espargaro	01:30.552	+1.169	20	333.8
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.660	+1.277	19	341.2
17	Scott Redding	01:30.773	+1.390	19	330.6
18	Eugene Laverty	01:30.910	+1.527	20	330.3
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.260	+1.877	21	326.6
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.339	+1.956	18	330.1
21	Stefan Bradl	01:31.577	+2.194	21	328.4
22	Toni Elias	01:32.122	+2.739	21	327.5
23	Loris Baz	01:32.309	+2.926	16	322.7
24	Anthony West	01:32.592	+3.209	19	323.7
25	Damian Cudlin	01:34.479	+5.096	15	314.5

FP3 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.081	—	20	338.9
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.509	+0.428	19	338.5
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.520	+0.439	18	332.4
4	Scott Redding	01:29.675	+0.594	19	335.9
5	Maverick Viñales	01:29.715	+0.634	18	329.7
6	Andrea Iannone	01:29.755	+0.674	22	344.6
7	Valentino Rossi	01:29.815	+0.734	20	331.3
8	Bradley Smith	01:29.877	+0.796	22	337.1
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.962	+0.881	20	348.0
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.982	+0.901	18	331.6
11	Jack Miller	01:30.034	+0.953	18	333.9
12	Hector Barbera	01:30.163	+1.082	19	331.0
13	Pol Espargaro	01:30.193	+1.112	21	334.4
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.295	+1.214	19	337.2
15	Nicky Hayden	01:30.351	+1.270	19	328.9
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.404	+1.323	20	330.8
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.414	+1.333	20	339.9
18	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.505	+1.424	20	326.7
19	Eugene Laverty	01:30.766	+1.685	18	329.8
20	Loris Baz	01:31.145	+2.064	18	327.6
21	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.176	+2.095	17	332.3
22	Stefan Bradl	01:31.419	+2.338	20	329.0
23	Anthony West	01:31.898	+2.817	19	325.1
24	Toni Elias	01:31.913	+2.832	21	332.5
25	Damian Cudlin	01:34.302	+5.221	15	314.9

FP4 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.245	—	15	338.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.864	+0.619	14	332.4
3	Andrea Iannone	01:29.871	+0.626	14	343.5
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.956	+0.711	11	327.3
5	Pol Espargaro	01:30.099	+0.854	15	335.4
6	Valentino Rossi	01:30.108	+0.863	17	333.1
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.157	+0.912	16	327.7
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.212	+0.967	13	345.3
9	Maverick Viñales	01:30.246	+1.001	15	328.1
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.262	+1.017	16	338.9
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.402	+1.157	17	336.1
12	Jack Miller	01:30.491	+1.246	16	331.6
13	Scott Redding	01:30.547	+1.302	16	334.3
14	Bradley Smith	01:30.597	+1.352	12	333.8
15	Eugene Laverty	01:30.814	+1.569	13	330.4
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.875	+1.630	15	337.1
17	Hector Barbera	01:30.921	+1.676	14	328.6
18	Loris Baz	01:31.105	+1.860	13	324.0
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.519	+2.274	11	325.3
20	Nicky Hayden	01:31.586	+2.341	14	328.8
21	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.676	+2.431	11	332.3
22	Stefan Bradl	01:31.851	+2.606	13	328.4
23	Toni Elias	01:32.132	+2.887	11	330.0
24	Anthony West	01:32.514	+3.269	14	326.9
25	Damian Cudlin	01:34.036	+4.791	6	316.3

Q1 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Pol Espargaro	01:29.647	—	3	331.5
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.697	+0.050	7	330.3
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:29.918	+0.271	7	335.4
4	Hector Barbera	01:30.064	+0.417	8	334.5
5	Jack Miller	01:30.104	+0.457	8	335.6
6	Eugene Laverty	01:30.105	+0.458	6	328.7
7	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.135	+0.488	7	339.3
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.147	+0.500	8	332.1
9	Loris Baz	01:30.173	+0.526	6	329.4
10	Nicky Hayden	01:30.376	+0.729	7	327.8
11	Stefan Bradl	01:30.634	+0.987	8	331.1
12	Mike Di Meglio	01:30.959	+1.312	8	329.7
13	Anthony West	01:31.205	+1.558	8	328.3
14	Toni Elias	01:31.837	+2.190	7	330.9
15	Damian Cudlin	01:33.884	+4.237	6	314.7

Q2 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.364	—	8	337.8
2	Andrea Iannone	01:28.680	+0.316	9	346.5
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:28.680	+0.316	8	333.1
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:28.712	+0.348	7	332.3
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.912	+0.548	7	340.0
6	Maverick Viñales	01:28.932	+0.568	8	328.3
7	Valentino Rossi	01:29.014	+0.650	7	334.5
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.015	+0.651	3	330.7
9	Pol Espargaro	01:29.222	+0.858	7	339.5
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.267	+0.903	7	347.1
11	Scott Redding	01:29.499	+1.135	7	337.6
12	Bradley Smith	01:29.626	+1.262	9	336.7

Warm Up · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.344	—	13	335.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:29.503	+0.159	13	334.7
3	Andrea Iannone	01:29.611	+0.267	13	346.4
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:29.676	+0.332	13	331.6
5	Pol Espargaro	01:29.863	+0.519	13	338.6
6	Valentino Rossi	01:29.907	+0.563	12	334.1
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.912	+0.568	11	339.1
8	Maverick Viñales	01:30.015	+0.671	13	329.6
9	Scott Redding	01:30.195	+0.851	11	336.0
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.402	+1.058	12	343.5
11	Hector Barbera	01:30.448	+1.104	11	331.8
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.564	+1.220	13	335.1
13	Yonny Hernandez	01:30.622	+1.278	13	337.5
14	Bradley Smith	01:30.716	+1.372	11	335.2
15	Nicky Hayden	01:30.768	+1.424	13	329.0
16	Jack Miller	01:30.826	+1.482	12	331.5
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.882	+1.538	13	331.2
18	Mike Di Meglio	01:31.089	+1.745	13	328.9
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.125	+1.781	9	325.9
20	Stefan Bradl	01:31.186	+1.842	13	330.4
21	Eugene Laverty	01:31.201	+1.857	13	329.1
22	Loris Baz	01:31.309	+1.965	13	324.4
23	Toni Elias	01:31.764	+2.420	11	328.8
24	Anthony West	01:32.328	+2.984	13	327.4
25	Damian Cudlin	01:33.654	+4.310	9	309.2

Race · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	40:33.849	25	27
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+0.249	20	27
3	Andrea Iannone	+0.930	16	27
4	Valentino Rossi	+1.058	13	27
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+5.062	11	27
6	Maverick Viñales	+6.800	10	27
7	Cal Crutchlow	+9.375	9	27
8	Pol Espargaro	+18.401	8	27
9	Aleix Espargaro	+20.039	7	27
10	Bradley Smith	+20.657	6	27
11	Scott Redding	+21.846	5	27
12	Danilo Petrucci	+22.840	4	27
13	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.168	3	27
14	Alvaro Bautista	+37.244	2	27
15	Jack Miller	+40.192	1	27
16	Hector Barbera	+48.263	0	27
17	Yonny Hernandez	+48.572	0	27
18	Loris Baz	+48.677	0	27
19	Eugene Laverty	+50.201	0	27
20	Mike Di Meglio	+50.262	0	27
21	Stefan Bradl	+50.277	0	27
22	Toni Elias	+80.942	0	27
23	Anthony West	+83.454	0	27
Retired	Damian Cudlin		0	9
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	9

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	70%	2 ✓
2	Danilo Petrucci	50%	3
3	Jack Miller	38%	5
4	Pol Espargaro	16%	1 ✓
5	Hector Barbera	14%	4
6	Nicky Hayden	4%	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	8%	8
8	Yonny Hernandez	0%	7
9	Eugene Laverty	0%	6
10	Loris Baz	0%	9
11	Mike Di Meglio	0%	12
12	Stefan Bradl	0%	11
13	Anthony West	0%	13
14	Toni Elias	0%	14
15	Damian Cudlin	0%	15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	48%	80%	96%	1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	22%	54%	86%	3
3	Cal Crutchlow	18%	52%	90%	5
4	Maverick Viñales	2%	32%	66%	6
5	Andrea Iannone	2%	34%	70%	2
6	Scott Redding	6%	18%	58%	11
7	Valentino Rossi	2%	14%	50%	7
8	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	10%	26%	4
9	Bradley Smith	0%	2%	18%	12
10	Aleix Espargaro	0%	2%	16%	8
11	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	0%	10%	10
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	2%	16%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	27%	56%	71%	81%	16%	1
Andrea Iannone	2	19%	47%	62%	75%	23%	3
Jorge Lorenzo	3	17%	49%	71%	90%	7%	2
Daniel Pedrosa	4	12%	39%	63%	85%	9%	5
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	23%	42%	66%	29%	7
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	23%	44%	77%	15%	6
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	20%	41%	83%	7%	4
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	14%	29%	68%	18%	9
Pol Espargaro	9	2%	8%	19%	59%	26%	8
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	7%	18%	66%	9%	13
Scott Redding	11	1%	5%	13%	57%	13%	11
Bradley Smith	12	1%	3%	10%	50%	11%	10
Danilo Petrucci	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	26%	12
Hector Barbera	14	0%	2%	4%	33%	15%	16
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	2%	18%	39%	15
Eugene Laverty	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	15%	19
Yonny Hernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	29%	17
Alvaro Bautista	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	19%	14
Loris Baz	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	16%	18
Nicky Hayden	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	—
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	21
Mike Di Meglio	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	20
Anthony West	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	23
Toni Elias	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	22
Damian Cudlin	25	0%	0%	0%	0%	43%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Valentino Rossi	283	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	265	−18
3	Marc Marquez	197	−86
4	Andrea Iannone	172	−111
5	Daniel Pedrosa	154	−129
6	Bradley Smith	152	−131

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/27

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

10.836 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex De Angelis, from P23 to P9.

Longest battle: Broc Parkes vs Mike Di Meglio (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet