Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2014

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

24.10 – 26.10.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:45.523	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.445	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+3.508	16
4	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+21.234	13
5	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+22.283	11
6	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+34.668	10
7	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+38.435	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+48.839	8
9	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+50.792	7
10	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+59.088	6
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+75.949	5
12	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+77.966	4
13	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+87.773	3
14	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+104.244	2
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Alex De Angelis	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

10/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.445 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Valentino Rossi (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:02:21		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:04:04	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:04:21	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:05:27	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:10:27	Cal Crutchlow	Retired	Retired
Race	16:15:19	Nicky Hayden	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:25:24	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:27:49	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:31:41	Danilo Petrucci	Retired	Retired
Race	16:37:16	Hiroshi Aoyama	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:42:53	Alex De Angelis	Retired	Retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex De Angelis	18	13	+5
Nicky Hayden	14	9	+5
Valentino Rossi	6	4	+2
Marc Marquez	1	6	−5
Aleix Espargaro	7	11	−4
Hiroshi Aoyama	11	14	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	6→2	+4.0
Pol Espargaro	12→6	+3.9
Yonny Hernandez	13→7	+3.5
Stefan Bradl	4→4	+0.8
Hiroshi Aoyama	11→11	−1.7
Andrea Dovizioso	5→8	−2.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

27.7 °C

Air

max 27.7 °C

79%

Humidity

1.0 mm

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.379	—	16	322.5
2	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.393	+0.014	13	316.7
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.416	+0.037	15	321.6
4	Marc Marquez	02:01.670	+0.291	15	326.7
5	Stefan Bradl	02:01.716	+0.337	17	321.9
6	Valentino Rossi	02:01.842	+0.463	18	323.6
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.971	+0.592	14	323.0
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.171	+0.792	15	321.9
9	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.209	+0.830	16	322.6
10	Pol Espargaro	02:02.248	+0.869	17	322.1
11	Andrea Iannone	02:02.597	+1.218	15	320.4
12	Bradley Smith	02:02.627	+1.248	18	321.3
13	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.722	+1.343	17	322.0
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.847	+1.468	18	314.9
15	Scott Redding	02:02.898	+1.519	16	309.3
16	Karel Abraham	02:02.935	+1.556	16	310.5
17	Hector Barbera	02:03.220	+1.841	13	320.6
18	Nicky Hayden	02:03.787	+2.408	16	312.1
19	Alex De Angelis	02:04.454	+3.075	16	309.6
20	Michael Laverty	02:04.553	+3.174	14	308.8
21	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.658	+3.279	16	307.0
22	Mike Di Meglio	02:05.007	+3.628	13	305.6
23	Broc Parkes	02:06.195	+4.816	12	304.6

FP2 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	02:14.503	—	14	303.6
2	Marc Marquez	02:14.745	+0.242	13	300.5
3	Daniel Pedrosa	02:15.582	+1.079	11	297.2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:16.231	+1.728	11	292.6
5	Aleix Espargaro	02:16.374	+1.871	11	302.7
6	Hector Barbera	02:16.693	+2.190	14	294.2
7	Stefan Bradl	02:16.706	+2.203	12	289.2
8	Andrea Iannone	02:16.793	+2.290	10	280.2
9	Nicky Hayden	02:16.868	+2.365	15	295.2
10	Cal Crutchlow	02:16.906	+2.403	12	302.6
11	Karel Abraham	02:17.259	+2.756	13	301.5
12	Yonny Hernandez	02:17.384	+2.881	13	311.3
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:17.411	+2.908	13	291.4
14	Alvaro Bautista	02:17.434	+2.931	13	296.9
15	Valentino Rossi	02:18.022	+3.519	12	296.4
16	Pol Espargaro	02:18.043	+3.540	14	307.4
17	Bradley Smith	02:18.544	+4.041	15	293.7
18	Alex De Angelis	02:18.662	+4.159	13	290.6
19	Michael Laverty	02:19.151	+4.648	13	287.2
20	Danilo Petrucci	02:19.301	+4.798	12	291.7
21	Scott Redding	02:19.726	+5.223	14	293.5
22	Mike Di Meglio	02:20.725	+6.222	11	291.7
23	Broc Parkes	02:20.781	+6.278	13	275.0

FP3 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.454	—	16	328.7
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.619	+0.165	15	324.1
3	Marc Marquez	02:00.663	+0.209	16	327.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.770	+0.316	17	327.3
5	Stefan Bradl	02:00.866	+0.412	19	324.6
6	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.870	+0.416	17	324.0
7	Valentino Rossi	02:00.901	+0.447	19	322.7
8	Bradley Smith	02:01.426	+0.972	19	325.6
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.498	+1.044	15	316.6
10	Pol Espargaro	02:01.885	+1.431	13	320.2
11	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.013	+1.559	16	324.2
12	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.105	+1.651	18	326.7
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.360	+1.906	18	314.4
14	Karel Abraham	02:02.581	+2.127	15	313.7
15	Nicky Hayden	02:03.476	+3.022	17	311.5
16	Scott Redding	02:03.598	+3.144	16	309.3
17	Alex De Angelis	02:03.654	+3.200	16	311.0
18	Hector Barbera	02:03.725	+3.271	15	319.0
19	Danilo Petrucci	02:03.964	+3.510	18	309.8
20	Michael Laverty	02:04.086	+3.632	14	311.6
21	Mike Di Meglio	02:04.323	+3.869	16	308.3
22	Broc Parkes	02:05.896	+5.442	16	303.2
23	Andrea Iannone	02:06.627	+6.173	3	305.8

FP4 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:01.413	—	10	326.0
2	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.486	+0.073	12	328.9
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.688	+0.275	11	323.9
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.918	+0.505	12	329.6
5	Valentino Rossi	02:01.932	+0.519	12	325.3
6	Stefan Bradl	02:02.448	+1.035	12	324.8
7	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.494	+1.081	11	323.7
8	Bradley Smith	02:02.602	+1.189	13	325.3
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.603	+1.190	9	314.4
10	Scott Redding	02:02.652	+1.239	12	311.6
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:03.036	+1.623	13	325.5
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.129	+1.716	10	315.1
13	Yonny Hernandez	02:03.220	+1.807	11	322.6
14	Nicky Hayden	02:03.437	+2.024	10	313.4
15	Karel Abraham	02:03.648	+2.235	10	312.5
16	Hector Barbera	02:03.679	+2.266	8	318.1
17	Alex De Angelis	02:04.075	+2.662	11	318.0
18	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.447	+3.034	13	309.6
19	Michael Laverty	02:05.777	+4.364	9	309.4
20	Broc Parkes	02:06.004	+4.591	10	305.6
21	Mike Di Meglio	02:06.326	+4.913	9	305.6
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0

Q1 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Alvaro Bautista	02:01.818	—	7	325.1
2	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.020	+0.202	7	314.1
3	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.184	+0.366	7	324.2
4	Nicky Hayden	02:02.330	+0.512	7	312.8
5	Karel Abraham	02:02.548	+0.730	6	314.0
6	Hector Barbera	02:02.682	+0.864	6	320.5
7	Scott Redding	02:02.874	+1.056	6	310.5
8	Alex De Angelis	02:03.165	+1.347	6	316.2
9	Danilo Petrucci	02:03.874	+2.056	6	307.7
10	Michael Laverty	02:04.539	+2.721	7	310.7
11	Mike Di Meglio	02:04.784	+2.966	6	306.4
12	Broc Parkes	02:05.208	+3.390	7	304.8
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0

Q2 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:59.791	—	6	327.4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:59.973	+0.182	7	329.1
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.203	+0.412	6	324.8
4	Stefan Bradl	02:00.472	+0.681	6	327.6
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.703	+0.912	6	327.3
6	Valentino Rossi	02:00.740	+0.949	7	322.0
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.801	+1.010	6	315.1
8	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.119	+1.328	7	325.6
9	Bradley Smith	02:01.263	+1.472	8	325.4
10	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.294	+2.503	6	322.5
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:10.568	+10.777	4	313.4
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0

Warm Up · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:01.073	—	9	327.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.331	+0.258	9	323.8
3	Daniel Pedrosa	02:01.472	+0.399	10	324.8
4	Valentino Rossi	02:01.561	+0.488	10	323.8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.648	+0.575	10	325.3
6	Stefan Bradl	02:01.976	+0.903	9	326.2
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.262	+1.189	9	315.9
8	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.294	+1.221	10	326.1
9	Bradley Smith	02:02.303	+1.230	10	325.6
10	Hector Barbera	02:02.557	+1.484	9	321.6
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.637	+1.564	10	322.6
12	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.671	+1.598	9	325.3
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.735	+1.662	9	313.8
14	Pol Espargaro	02:02.799	+1.726	9	320.0
15	Nicky Hayden	02:03.100	+2.027	7	312.8
16	Scott Redding	02:03.282	+2.209	10	310.9
17	Karel Abraham	02:03.809	+2.736	6	311.3
18	Alex De Angelis	02:04.249	+3.176	10	320.5
19	Mike Di Meglio	02:04.508	+3.435	8	307.1
20	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.583	+3.510	10	307.9
21	Broc Parkes	02:05.341	+4.268	9	304.2
22	Michael Laverty	02:05.642	+4.569	8	308.2
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0

Race · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	40:45.523	25	20
2	Valentino Rossi	+2.445	20	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	+3.508	16	20
4	Stefan Bradl	+21.234	13	20
5	Bradley Smith	+22.283	11	20
6	Pol Espargaro	+34.668	10	20
7	Yonny Hernandez	+38.435	9	20
8	Andrea Dovizioso	+48.839	8	20
9	Hector Barbera	+50.792	7	20
10	Scott Redding	+59.088	6	20
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	+75.949	5	20
12	Michael Laverty	+77.966	4	20
13	Mike Di Meglio	+87.773	3	20
14	Broc Parkes	+104.244	2	20
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	1
Retired	Alex De Angelis		0	19
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	1
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	4
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	12
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	14
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	11
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	6

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Yonny Hernandez	82%	3
2	Alvaro Bautista	46%	1 ✓
3	Hiroshi Aoyama	36%	2 ✓
4	Karel Abraham	12%	5
5	Scott Redding	15%	7
6	Hector Barbera	0%	6
7	Nicky Hayden	9%	4
8	Alex De Angelis	0%	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	0%	9
10	Michael Laverty	0%	10
11	Mike Di Meglio	0%	11
12	Broc Parkes	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Daniel Pedrosa	42%	73%	94%	2
2	Jorge Lorenzo	24%	58%	85%	3
3	Marc Marquez	24%	58%	94%	1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	30%	61%	5
5	Stefan Bradl	3%	36%	73%	4
6	Cal Crutchlow	3%	15%	55%	8
7	Valentino Rossi	0%	15%	55%	6
8	Aleix Espargaro	0%	9%	27%	7
9	Bradley Smith	0%	3%	15%	9
10	Alvaro Bautista	0%	3%	21%	10
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	0%	9%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Andrea Iannone	23	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	312	—
2	Valentino Rossi	255	−57
3	Jorge Lorenzo	247	−65
4	Daniel Pedrosa	230	−82
5	Andrea Dovizioso	166	−146
6	Aleix Espargaro	117	−195

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/20

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

2.757 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Daniel Pedrosa, from P5 to P1.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Cal Crutchlow (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet