Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2011

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

30.09 – 02.10.2011

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:47.481	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+7.299	20
3	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.380	16
4	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+23.550	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.691	11
6	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+37.604	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+39.167	9
8	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+45.023	8
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+49.074	7
10	Randy De Puniet	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+59.022	6
11	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+73.964	5
12	Kousuke Akiyoshi	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+81.709	4
13	Shinichi Ito	Honda	Honda Racing Team	+86.381	3
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Damian Cudlin	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Mapfre Aspar Team MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Toni Elias	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

19/24

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

7.299 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Colin Edwards, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Damian Cudlin vs Kousuke Akiyoshi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Toni Elias	15	7	+8
Colin Edwards	14	9	+5
Alvaro Bautista	8	6	+2
Ben Spies	5	17	−12
Jorge Lorenzo	2	4	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Daniel Pedrosa	4→1	+3.8
Colin Edwards	14→8	+3.2
Marco Simoncelli	6→4	+2.0
Ben Spies	5→6	−0.6
Andrea Dovizioso	3→5	−0.9
Cal Crutchlow	12→11	−1.1

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

17.2 °C

Air

max 17.5 °C

68%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:47.289	—	16	291.2
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.566	+0.277	21	287.4
3	Nicky Hayden	01:47.732	+0.443	18	291.3
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.836	+0.547	17	287.2
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.912	+0.623	16	283.3
6	Marco Simoncelli	01:47.942	+0.653	15	288.3
7	Colin Edwards	01:48.169	+0.880	17	284.7
8	Ben Spies	01:48.197	+0.908	18	285.4
9	Hector Barbera	01:48.406	+1.117	15	281.5
10	Valentino Rossi	01:48.667	+1.378	20	286.9
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:48.776	+1.487	20	285.1
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:48.880	+1.591	19	284.0
13	Randy De Puniet	01:48.892	+1.603	18	275.9
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.385	+2.096	19	274.9
15	Toni Elias	01:49.415	+2.126	17	287.3
16	Karel Abraham	01:49.813	+2.524	18	275.2
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:50.688	+3.399	16	277.8
18	Shinichi Ito	01:51.461	+4.172	15	276.4
19	Damian Cudlin	01:53.218	+5.929	19	268.5

FP2 · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.790	—	20	293.5
2	Casey Stoner	01:46.844	+0.054	15	291.7
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.952	+0.162	20	290.2
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:47.188	+0.398	19	288.8
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.310	+0.520	18	289.9
6	Nicky Hayden	01:47.381	+0.591	20	285.9
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.785	+0.995	19	288.8
8	Valentino Rossi	01:47.975	+1.185	19	288.5
9	Hector Barbera	01:48.055	+1.265	17	284.1
10	Colin Edwards	01:48.076	+1.286	18	286.7
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:48.097	+1.307	19	284.7
12	Randy De Puniet	01:48.374	+1.584	18	282.2
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.379	+1.589	19	281.0
14	Ben Spies	01:48.567	+1.777	5	287.2
15	Toni Elias	01:48.743	+1.953	19	289.6
16	Karel Abraham	01:49.305	+2.515	19	281.8
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:49.464	+2.674	18	281.6
18	Shinichi Ito	01:49.673	+2.883	18	284.4
19	Damian Cudlin	01:51.349	+4.559	17	276.4

FP3 · 01.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:46.162	—	18	295.9
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.301	+0.139	21	291.1
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.429	+0.267	17	291.9
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:46.592	+0.430	19	291.3
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.809	+0.647	17	284.2
6	Ben Spies	01:46.892	+0.730	16	291.6
7	Valentino Rossi	01:47.161	+0.999	20	292.1
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:47.202	+1.040	19	283.6
9	Nicky Hayden	01:47.335	+1.173	19	292.0
10	Randy De Puniet	01:47.514	+1.352	19	281.5
11	Hector Barbera	01:47.648	+1.486	17	284.1
12	Colin Edwards	01:47.666	+1.504	19	286.2
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.695	+1.533	19	289.6
14	Toni Elias	01:48.157	+1.995	18	290.9
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.196	+2.034	20	281.0
16	Karel Abraham	01:48.543	+2.381	18	287.3
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:49.298	+3.136	18	285.1
18	Damian Cudlin	01:50.239	+4.077	18	274.7
19	Shinichi Ito	01:50.266	+4.104	7	277.0

Qualifying · 01.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:45.267	—	21	295.6
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.523	+0.256	25	287.8
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.791	+0.524	27	293.8
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.966	+0.699	25	292.0
5	Ben Spies	01:46.042	+0.775	25	292.4
6	Marco Simoncelli	01:46.211	+0.944	25	292.4
7	Valentino Rossi	01:46.467	+1.200	26	290.9
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.586	+1.319	28	288.5
9	Hector Barbera	01:46.694	+1.427	23	287.5
10	Nicky Hayden	01:46.763	+1.496	26	289.5
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:46.811	+1.544	25	290.2
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.818	+1.551	25	281.9
13	Randy De Puniet	01:46.917	+1.650	25	285.5
14	Colin Edwards	01:47.165	+1.898	22	289.3
15	Karel Abraham	01:47.922	+2.655	23	284.7
16	Toni Elias	01:48.169	+2.902	22	289.2
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:48.367	+3.100	24	286.5
18	Damian Cudlin	01:48.962	+3.695	22	275.0
19	Shinichi Ito	01:49.971	+4.704	19	286.8

Warm Up · 02.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:46.348	—	10	295.1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.620	+0.272	11	287.5
3	Marco Simoncelli	01:46.876	+0.528	11	289.5
4	Valentino Rossi	01:46.980	+0.632	11	290.2
5	Ben Spies	01:47.007	+0.659	11	288.1
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.030	+0.682	10	289.0
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.193	+0.845	10	292.6
8	Nicky Hayden	01:47.220	+0.872	11	291.7
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:47.429	+1.081	9	286.7
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.475	+1.127	11	282.1
11	Hector Barbera	01:47.821	+1.473	11	279.4
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:47.893	+1.545	10	288.5
13	Colin Edwards	01:47.967	+1.619	11	287.7
14	Randy De Puniet	01:48.070	+1.722	11	280.4
15	Toni Elias	01:48.441	+2.093	11	286.5
16	Karel Abraham	01:48.545	+2.197	11	283.8
17	Damian Cudlin	01:49.445	+3.097	9	277.2
18	Shinichi Ito	01:49.912	+3.564	9	279.1
19	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:50.091	+3.743	10	281.8

Race · 02.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Daniel Pedrosa	42:47.481	25	24
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+7.299	20	24
3	Casey Stoner	+18.380	16	24
4	Marco Simoncelli	+23.550	13	24
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+23.691	11	24
6	Ben Spies	+37.604	10	24
7	Nicky Hayden	+39.167	9	24
8	Colin Edwards	+45.023	8	24
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	+49.074	7	24
10	Randy De Puniet	+59.022	6	24
11	Cal Crutchlow	+73.964	5	24
12	Kousuke Akiyoshi	+81.709	4	24
13	Shinichi Ito	+86.381	3	24
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	13
Retired	Damian Cudlin		0	13
Retired	Hector Barbera		0	1
Retired	Toni Elias		0	17
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	0

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Karel Abraham	15	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Casey Stoner	284	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	240	−44
3	Andrea Dovizioso	185	−99
4	Daniel Pedrosa	170	−114
5	Ben Spies	146	−138
6	Valentino Rossi	139	−145

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

3.868 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P14 to P10.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Valentino Rossi (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet