Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2011

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

14.10 – 16.10.2011

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:02.425	25
2	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+2.210	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.454	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.160	13
5	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+30.886	11
6	Randy De Puniet	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+48.800	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+76.314	9
8	Toni Elias	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+0.000	8
9	Loris Capirossi	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+0.000	7
10	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+0.000	6
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

2.210 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Randy De Puniet, from P9 to P6.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Valentino Rossi	11	7	+4
Nicky Hayden	5	2	+3
Karel Abraham	13	11	+2
Hiroshi Aoyama	10	13	−3
Alvaro Bautista	3	5	−2
Loris Capirossi	8	9	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Toni Elias	14→8	+3.2
Daniel Pedrosa	6→4	+2.0
Randy De Puniet	9→6	+2.0
Karel Abraham	13→10	+0.5
Nicky Hayden	5→7	−1.6
Loris Capirossi	8→9	−1.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

12.6 °C

Air

max 12.6 °C

56%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

31 km/h

Wind

gusts 68 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.475	—	15	323.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.744	+0.269	20	320.1
3	Marco Simoncelli	01:30.951	+0.476	18	318.3
4	Colin Edwards	01:31.480	+1.005	20	320.4
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.532	+1.057	21	323.9
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.571	+1.096	21	315.6
7	Nicky Hayden	01:31.662	+1.187	23	319.8
8	Ben Spies	01:31.824	+1.349	21	318.1
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.935	+1.460	23	322.2
10	Loris Capirossi	01:32.052	+1.577	21	325.9
11	Randy De Puniet	01:32.096	+1.621	18	316.7
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.114	+1.639	22	319.2
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.393	+1.918	21	321.0
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.583	+2.108	21	317.9
15	Karel Abraham	01:32.615	+2.140	21	321.2
16	Toni Elias	01:33.641	+3.166	22	318.9
17	Damian Cudlin	01:34.121	+3.646	18	314.8

FP2 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.535	—	18	318.8
2	Marco Simoncelli	01:30.912	+0.377	19	314.4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.111	+0.576	19	313.0
4	Ben Spies	01:31.495	+0.960	23	312.7
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.543	+1.008	21	311.3
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.582	+1.047	21	317.0
7	Randy De Puniet	01:31.670	+1.135	23	313.4
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.777	+1.242	21	317.5
9	Colin Edwards	01:31.805	+1.270	16	310.2
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.825	+1.290	23	318.4
11	Nicky Hayden	01:31.899	+1.364	22	313.9
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.969	+1.434	22	314.1
13	Valentino Rossi	01:32.014	+1.479	22	316.5
14	Loris Capirossi	01:32.082	+1.547	21	310.9
15	Karel Abraham	01:32.360	+1.825	21	313.4
16	Toni Elias	01:32.639	+2.104	22	317.8
17	Damian Cudlin	01:33.658	+3.123	22	310.1

FP3 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.550	—	21	325.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.190	+0.640	21	319.3
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.465	+0.915	21	321.1
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:31.687	+1.137	21	320.6
5	Ben Spies	01:31.753	+1.203	23	318.3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.791	+1.241	22	324.8
7	Randy De Puniet	01:32.162	+1.612	22	317.9
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.317	+1.767	21	321.4
9	Nicky Hayden	01:32.334	+1.784	22	319.1
10	Colin Edwards	01:32.474	+1.924	21	317.5
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:32.488	+1.938	22	324.4
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.780	+2.230	22	319.8
13	Loris Capirossi	01:32.883	+2.333	19	315.9
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.898	+2.348	22	319.0
15	Karel Abraham	01:33.199	+2.649	24	323.4
16	Toni Elias	01:33.406	+2.856	23	323.2
—	Damian Cudlin	01:39.777	+9.227	2	311.3

Qualifying · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:29.975	—	24	321.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.448	+0.473	26	314.9
3	Marco Simoncelli	01:30.599	+0.624	29	316.5
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:30.714	+0.739	28	319.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.780	+0.805	29	320.6
6	Nicky Hayden	01:30.792	+0.817	30	314.7
7	Ben Spies	01:30.835	+0.860	20	315.7
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:30.871	+0.896	28	316.1
9	Colin Edwards	01:31.237	+1.262	29	314.2
10	Loris Capirossi	01:31.583	+1.608	19	310.3
11	Randy De Puniet	01:31.635	+1.660	28	313.9
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:31.889	+1.914	15	318.9
13	Valentino Rossi	01:31.980	+2.005	29	315.4
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.023	+2.048	28	316.5
15	Karel Abraham	01:32.054	+2.079	32	321.1
16	Toni Elias	01:32.503	+2.528	30	321.6
—	Damian Cudlin	01:36.666	+6.691	12	303.8

Warm Up · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:31.261	—	12	322.7
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.311	+0.050	8	318.1
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:31.779	+0.518	12	313.5
4	Valentino Rossi	01:32.220	+0.959	12	320.3
5	Marco Simoncelli	01:32.282	+1.021	12	313.5
6	Nicky Hayden	01:32.390	+1.129	12	317.4
7	Randy De Puniet	01:32.403	+1.142	12	314.3
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.414	+1.153	13	315.0
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.569	+1.308	11	321.2
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:32.727	+1.466	12	318.3
11	Colin Edwards	01:33.029	+1.768	12	316.6
12	Ben Spies	01:33.244	+1.983	12	315.0
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.628	+2.367	11	317.1
14	Loris Capirossi	01:33.819	+2.558	12	313.1
15	Karel Abraham	01:33.840	+2.579	11	319.7
16	Toni Elias	01:34.436	+3.175	12	317.7
Retired	Damian Cudlin		—	0	0.0

Race · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	42:02.425	25	27
2	Marco Simoncelli	+2.210	20	27
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+2.454	16	27
4	Daniel Pedrosa	+13.160	13	27
5	Colin Edwards	+30.886	11	27
6	Randy De Puniet	+48.800	10	27
7	Nicky Hayden	+76.314	9	27
8	Toni Elias	+0.000	8	26
9	Loris Capirossi	+0.000	7	26
10	Karel Abraham	+0.000	6	25
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	23
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	23
Retired	Hiroshi Aoyama		0	23
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	13

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Damian Cudlin	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Ben Spies	7	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Jorge Lorenzo	2	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Casey Stoner	300	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	260	−40
3	Andrea Dovizioso	196	−104
4	Daniel Pedrosa	195	−105
5	Ben Spies	156	−144
6	Valentino Rossi	139	−161

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

8.598 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P3.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Hiroshi Aoyama (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet