Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2010

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

05.11 – 07.11.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	46:44.622	25
2	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	+4.576	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+8.998	16
4	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+17.643	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.160	11
6	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+20.674	10
7	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+26.797	9
8	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+29.288	8
9	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+29.451	7
10	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+29.860	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+31.761	5
12	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.604	4
13	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+36.622	3
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+38.968	2
15	Carlos Checa	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+56.169	1
DNF	Loris Capirossi	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/30

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

4.576 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Marco Melandri (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Daniel Pedrosa	8	3	+5
Hector Barbera	13	10	+3
Nicky Hayden	5	2	+3
Colin Edwards	7	12	−5
Valentino Rossi	4	8	−4
Jorge Lorenzo	2	5	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	17→9	+4.1
Andrea Dovizioso	9→5	+3.0
Hector Barbera	13→8	+2.5
Carlos Checa	16→15	−2.5
Marco Melandri	10→13	−4.4
Colin Edwards	7→12	−5.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

20.9 °C

Air

max 21.1 °C

46%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:32.897	—	15	308.1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.455	+0.558	22	306.6
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.500	+0.603	18	308.0
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:33.631	+0.734	21	300.4
5	Valentino Rossi	01:33.714	+0.817	23	302.0
6	Nicky Hayden	01:33.757	+0.860	20	306.1
7	Hector Barbera	01:33.857	+0.960	21	311.1
8	Randy De Puniet	01:33.899	+1.002	24	302.9
9	Ben Spies	01:33.929	+1.032	24	304.5
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.029	+1.132	21	301.5
11	Colin Edwards	01:34.053	+1.156	19	302.0
12	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.123	+1.226	21	310.3
13	Marco Melandri	01:34.160	+1.263	23	307.3
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.506	+1.609	20	307.2
15	Loris Capirossi	01:34.864	+1.967	18	300.8
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.904	+2.007	22	308.8
17	Carlos Checa	01:35.172	+2.275	20	302.3

FP2 · 05.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.690	—	24	302.3
2	Casey Stoner	01:33.004	+0.314	16	304.8
3	Colin Edwards	01:33.466	+0.776	23	301.7
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:33.468	+0.778	22	299.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.470	+0.780	22	305.6
6	Ben Spies	01:33.528	+0.838	25	303.0
7	Randy De Puniet	01:33.535	+0.845	21	301.9
8	Marco Melandri	01:33.568	+0.878	24	304.7
9	Valentino Rossi	01:33.661	+0.971	21	303.3
10	Nicky Hayden	01:33.684	+0.994	22	301.2
11	Hector Barbera	01:33.782	+1.092	23	308.0
12	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.927	+1.237	21	307.5
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.954	+1.264	22	301.5
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.154	+1.464	20	305.3
15	Loris Capirossi	01:34.248	+1.558	22	299.3
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.296	+1.606	25	303.0
17	Carlos Checa	01:34.636	+1.946	21	301.2

FP3 · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:32.664	—	17	308.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.945	+0.281	22	310.9
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.117	+0.453	20	305.7
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:33.171	+0.507	22	303.7
5	Ben Spies	01:33.226	+0.562	26	302.1
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.397	+0.733	22	307.4
7	Randy De Puniet	01:33.408	+0.744	22	303.5
8	Hector Barbera	01:33.440	+0.776	22	310.8
9	Nicky Hayden	01:33.454	+0.790	23	305.1
10	Valentino Rossi	01:33.498	+0.834	23	302.5
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.615	+0.951	22	305.9
12	Colin Edwards	01:33.781	+1.117	22	303.1
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:33.986	+1.322	22	309.0
14	Loris Capirossi	01:34.012	+1.348	22	304.1
15	Marco Melandri	01:34.092	+1.428	22	308.1
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.158	+1.494	25	302.9
17	Carlos Checa	01:35.243	+2.579	18	303.5

Qualifying · 06.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:31.799	—	18	310.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.130	+0.331	25	305.5
3	Marco Simoncelli	01:32.244	+0.445	24	303.7
4	Valentino Rossi	01:32.330	+0.531	23	305.4
5	Nicky Hayden	01:32.422	+0.623	24	305.7
6	Ben Spies	01:32.566	+0.767	24	305.1
7	Colin Edwards	01:32.579	+0.780	23	305.3
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.603	+0.804	23	312.4
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.886	+1.087	24	311.3
10	Marco Melandri	01:32.917	+1.118	22	308.7
11	Randy De Puniet	01:32.925	+1.126	24	307.1
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.085	+1.286	23	303.1
13	Hector Barbera	01:33.170	+1.371	19	311.0
14	Loris Capirossi	01:33.339	+1.540	25	306.5
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:33.343	+1.544	22	308.3
16	Carlos Checa	01:33.499	+1.700	21	305.3
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.515	+1.716	23	305.9

Warm Up · 07.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Nicky Hayden	01:33.247	—	13	303.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.278	+0.031	12	305.0
3	Casey Stoner	01:33.389	+0.142	11	310.8
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.621	+0.374	12	311.9
5	Colin Edwards	01:33.717	+0.470	12	305.9
6	Marco Simoncelli	01:33.772	+0.525	13	304.9
7	Hector Barbera	01:33.778	+0.531	12	313.0
8	Valentino Rossi	01:33.809	+0.562	12	306.6
9	Ben Spies	01:33.810	+0.563	12	304.7
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.853	+0.606	12	309.1
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.024	+0.777	12	309.4
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.039	+0.792	12	305.9
13	Loris Capirossi	01:34.200	+0.953	12	305.1
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.202	+0.955	12	308.4
15	Marco Melandri	01:34.229	+0.982	13	308.8
16	Randy De Puniet	01:34.338	+1.091	12	306.6
17	Carlos Checa	01:35.409	+2.162	12	305.8

Race · 07.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	46:44.622	25	30
2	Casey Stoner	+4.576	20	30
3	Valentino Rossi	+8.998	16	30
4	Ben Spies	+17.643	13	30
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+19.160	11	30
6	Marco Simoncelli	+20.674	10	30
7	Daniel Pedrosa	+26.797	9	30
8	Hector Barbera	+29.288	8	30
9	Alvaro Bautista	+29.451	7	30
10	Randy De Puniet	+29.860	6	30
11	Aleix Espargaro	+31.761	5	30
12	Colin Edwards	+33.604	4	30
13	Marco Melandri	+36.622	3	30
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	+38.968	2	30
15	Carlos Checa	+56.169	1	30
Retired	Loris Capirossi		0	13
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	2

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	358	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	237	−121
3	Casey Stoner	225	−133
4	Valentino Rossi	213	−145
5	Andrea Dovizioso	190	−168
6	Ben Spies	176	−182

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet