Aftermath
What happened
The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.
Sprint result
Forecast vs reality
C14Lap-by-lap positions: race
Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.
Lap-by-lap positions: sprint
Race pace
The race in numbers
Race
44
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
3 leaders
14/28
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
8.629 s
Closest finish
Comeback of the day: Marco Simoncelli, from P9 to P4.
Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Randy De Puniet (12 laps).
Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.
Incidents
The start
C23Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested
The tyre gamble
Race weather
C2516.8 °C
Air
max 17.0 °C
69%
Humidity
0.2 mm
Rain
36 km/h
Wind
gusts 78 km/h
Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.
Race weekend
As it happens
Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.
The weekend, session by session
FP1 · 29.10
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hiroshi Aoyama | 02:21.217 | — | 5 | 216.1 |
| Retired | Aleix Espargaro | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Alvaro Bautista | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Andrea Dovizioso | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Ben Spies | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| — | Carlos Checa | 37:47.795 | 3 | 167.2 | |
| Retired | Casey Stoner | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Colin Edwards | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Daniel Pedrosa | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Hector Barbera | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Jorge Lorenzo | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Loris Capirossi | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Marco Melandri | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Marco Simoncelli | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Nicky Hayden | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Randy De Puniet | — | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Retired | Valentino Rossi | — | 0 | 0.0 |
FP2 · 29.10
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Lorenzo | 01:48.522 | — | 20 | 302.2 |
| 2 | Nicky Hayden | 01:48.657 | +0.135 | 20 | 311.6 |
| 3 | Valentino Rossi | 01:48.883 | +0.361 | 20 | 301.7 |
| 4 | Casey Stoner | 01:49.061 | +0.539 | 15 | 299.6 |
| 5 | Ben Spies | 01:49.721 | +1.199 | 21 | 304.6 |
| 6 | Marco Melandri | 01:49.784 | +1.262 | 19 | 307.5 |
| 7 | Randy De Puniet | 01:50.043 | +1.521 | 24 | 298.4 |
| 8 | Marco Simoncelli | 01:51.283 | +2.761 | 21 | 304.2 |
| 9 | Andrea Dovizioso | 01:52.294 | +3.772 | 16 | 291.9 |
| 10 | Loris Capirossi | 01:52.575 | +4.053 | 14 | 284.9 |
| 11 | Hector Barbera | 01:53.131 | +4.609 | 15 | 285.8 |
| 12 | Colin Edwards | 01:53.510 | +4.988 | 11 | 264.5 |
| 13 | Daniel Pedrosa | 01:53.592 | +5.070 | 19 | 277.8 |
| 14 | Aleix Espargaro | 01:53.769 | +5.247 | 16 | 281.9 |
| 15 | Hiroshi Aoyama | 01:54.389 | +5.867 | 18 | 272.9 |
| 16 | Alvaro Bautista | 01:54.410 | +5.888 | 15 | 287.5 |
| 17 | Carlos Checa | 01:54.444 | +5.922 | 18 | 266.6 |
FP3 · 30.10
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Lorenzo | 01:48.853 | — | 20 | 306.4 |
| 2 | Valentino Rossi | 01:49.435 | +0.582 | 26 | 304.6 |
| 3 | Andrea Dovizioso | 01:50.007 | +1.154 | 27 | 294.7 |
| 4 | Casey Stoner | 01:50.081 | +1.228 | 18 | 307.3 |
| 5 | Colin Edwards | 01:50.313 | +1.460 | 20 | 289.9 |
| 6 | Marco Simoncelli | 01:50.500 | +1.647 | 20 | 297.3 |
| 7 | Aleix Espargaro | 01:50.787 | +1.934 | 24 | 287.9 |
| 8 | Daniel Pedrosa | 01:50.824 | +1.971 | 26 | 285.6 |
| 9 | Marco Melandri | 01:51.250 | +2.397 | 22 | 302.6 |
| 10 | Loris Capirossi | 01:51.518 | +2.665 | 25 | 294.7 |
| 11 | Ben Spies | 01:51.916 | +3.063 | 26 | 312.7 |
| 12 | Alvaro Bautista | 01:52.734 | +3.881 | 23 | 300.7 |
| 13 | Nicky Hayden | 01:53.018 | +4.165 | 19 | 301.7 |
| 14 | Hiroshi Aoyama | 01:53.317 | +4.464 | 24 | 279.4 |
| 15 | Randy De Puniet | 01:53.537 | +4.684 | 17 | 298.9 |
| 16 | Carlos Checa | 01:53.933 | +5.080 | 22 | 282.1 |
| 17 | Hector Barbera | 01:54.073 | +5.220 | 19 | 282.4 |
Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.
Long-run pace in practice
Who will make it to Q2
C21aPole and front row
C21Grid penalties
Sprint forecast
C13sWin and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.
Pending · no data yetRace forecast
C13Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.
Pending · no data yetWhat the sprint changed
C13bWho rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.
Pending · no data yetSprint pace
Preview
Before the race
What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.
Who rules each sector
C6Finish line · 4,191 m per lap
© OpenStreetMap contributors
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Pedro Acosta +0.25% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.30% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.40% |
| S2 | Marc Marquez +0.32% | Jack Miller +0.32% | Jorge Martin +0.33% |
| S3 | Pedro Acosta +0.09% | Cal Crutchlow +0.50% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.57% |
| S4 | Cal Crutchlow +0.13% | Pedro Acosta +0.33% | Fermin Aldeguer +0.37% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Pedro Acosta +0.15% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.44% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.52% |
| S2 | Marco Bezzecchi | Alex Marquez +0.49% | Pedro Acosta +0.63% |
| S3 | Pedro Acosta +0.12% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.35% | Alex Marquez +0.37% |
| S4 | Alex Marquez +0.16% | Fermin Aldeguer +0.37% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.38% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Maverick Viñales +0.11% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.29% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.29% |
| S2 | Marc Marquez +0.08% | Jorge Martin +0.21% | Jack Miller +0.32% |
| S3 | Pedro Acosta +0.07% | Marc Marquez +0.26% | Jorge Martin +0.26% |
| S4 | Maverick Viñales +0.04% | Pedro Acosta +0.12% | Jorge Martin +0.27% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Marco Bezzecchi | Francesco Bagnaia +0.28% | Maverick Viñales +0.29% |
| S2 | Alex Marquez +0.23% | Jorge Martin +0.23% | Jack Miller +0.34% |
| S3 | Francesco Bagnaia +0.13% | Joan Mir +0.33% | Jack Miller +0.34% |
| S4 | Alex Marquez +0.18% | Fabio Quartararo +0.21% | Johann Zarco +0.31% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Jack Miller | Maverick Viñales +0.27% | Alex Marquez +0.36% |
| S2 | Jack Miller | Fabio Quartararo +0.12% | Aleix Espargaro +0.16% |
| S3 | Fabio Quartararo | Brad Binder +0.48% | Alex Rins +0.58% |
| S4 | Fabio Quartararo | Maverick Viñales +0.55% | Johann Zarco +0.60% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Fabio Quartararo | Francesco Bagnaia +0.02% | Jack Miller +0.33% |
| S2 | Jack Miller +0.28% | Joan Mir +0.29% | Franco Morbidelli +0.34% |
| S3 | Fabio Quartararo | Francesco Bagnaia +0.02% | Marc Marquez +0.76% |
| S4 | Fabio Quartararo | Franco Morbidelli +0.37% | Alex Marquez +0.55% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Miguel Oliveira +0.08% | Takaaki Nakagami +0.28% | Aleix Espargaro +0.29% |
| S2 | Miguel Oliveira +0.17% | Franco Morbidelli +0.23% | Jack Miller +0.32% |
| S3 | Miguel Oliveira +0.01% | Johann Zarco +0.43% | Stefan Bradl +0.46% |
| S4 | Aleix Espargaro +0.02% | Cal Crutchlow +0.13% | Stefan Bradl +0.28% |
Fastest per sector: 2018–2026
Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.
A track for grid position, or an open one?
C15An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.
14/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
61%
Front row on the podium
0.68
Grid ↔ result
When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).
Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.
How they arrive in the standings
| # | Rider | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Lorenzo | 333 | — |
| 2 | Daniel Pedrosa | 228 | −105 |
| 3 | Casey Stoner | 205 | −128 |
| 4 | Valentino Rossi | 197 | −136 |
| 5 | Andrea Dovizioso | 179 | −154 |
| 6 | Ben Spies | 163 | −170 |
The last race here in numbers
Race pace at the last edition
C1Winners here
- 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
- 2024Jorge MartinDucati
- 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
- 2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
- 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
- 2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
- 2012Casey StonerHonda
- 2011Daniel PedrosaHonda
Attrition here
Average here 23% · global 19%
| Year | DNFs | % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3/21 | 14% |
| 2024 | 4/22 | 18% |
| 2023 | 6/20 | 30% |
| 2022 | 7/24 | 29% |
| 2021 | 5/21 | 24% |
| 2020 | 4/22 | 18% |