Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2010

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

15.10 – 17.10.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	41:09.128	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+8.598	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+17.997	16
4	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+18.035	13
5	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+22.211	11
6	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+25.017	10
7	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+35.168	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+46.194	8
9	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+46.294	7
10	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+59.635	6
11	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+59.664	5
12	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+59.732	4
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+65.029	3
14	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+65.053	2
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

8.598 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P3.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Hiroshi Aoyama (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	9	5	+4
Alvaro Bautista	14	11	+3
Nicky Hayden	6	3	+3
Randy De Puniet	7	10	−3
Ben Spies	3	6	−3
Colin Edwards	5	7	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	8→3	+4.3
Nicky Hayden	6→4	+2.0
Casey Stoner	1→1	+1.8
Hector Barbera	15→14	−2.2
Hiroshi Aoyama	13→13	−2.5
Randy De Puniet	7→10	−3.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

12.7 °C

Air

max 12.9 °C

72%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

18 km/h

Wind

gusts 42 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.146	—	20	296.7
2	Casey Stoner	01:41.480	+0.334	14	304.8
3	Nicky Hayden	01:41.631	+0.485	24	296.4
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:41.881	+0.735	20	290.8
5	Marco Melandri	01:41.982	+0.836	23	297.1
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.271	+1.125	26	304.5
7	Valentino Rossi	01:42.626	+1.480	22	296.6
8	Colin Edwards	01:43.013	+1.867	19	288.1
9	Randy De Puniet	01:43.476	+2.330	29	294.4
10	Loris Capirossi	01:43.984	+2.838	21	289.8
11	Mika Kallio	01:44.179	+3.033	25	293.6
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:44.704	+3.558	27	297.5
13	Hector Barbera	01:45.695	+4.549	25	290.7
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.160	+5.014	24	277.8
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.127	+6.981	19	271.9
—	Ben Spies	01:58.613	+17.467	3	249.8
—	Daniel Pedrosa	01:51.210	+10.064	7	265.4

FP2 · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:31.243	—	17	319.6
2	Colin Edwards	01:32.000	+0.757	22	314.2
3	Ben Spies	01:32.101	+0.858	25	315.6
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.168	+0.925	16	315.3
5	Nicky Hayden	01:32.209	+0.966	19	314.5
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.226	+0.983	23	318.5
7	Randy De Puniet	01:32.449	+1.206	18	313.1
8	Valentino Rossi	01:32.667	+1.424	26	311.6
9	Marco Simoncelli	01:32.739	+1.496	20	315.3
10	Marco Melandri	01:33.092	+1.849	17	318.6
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.303	+2.060	16	311.9
12	Mika Kallio	01:33.742	+2.499	25	316.8
13	Hector Barbera	01:34.055	+2.812	15	318.8
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.065	+2.822	21	312.5
15	Loris Capirossi	01:34.454	+3.211	22	310.5
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:34.718	+3.475	22	309.5
17	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.804	+3.561	19	304.1

Qualifying · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.107	—	22	323.4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.775	+0.668	25	319.8
3	Ben Spies	01:31.386	+1.279	23	319.8
4	Marco Simoncelli	01:31.402	+1.295	23	319.3
5	Colin Edwards	01:31.415	+1.308	26	317.9
6	Nicky Hayden	01:31.530	+1.423	24	319.8
7	Randy De Puniet	01:31.554	+1.447	29	319.5
8	Valentino Rossi	01:31.627	+1.520	27	316.0
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.018	+1.911	28	325.2
10	Marco Melandri	01:32.367	+2.260	23	322.2
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.542	+2.435	21	321.4
12	Mika Kallio	01:32.816	+2.709	25	318.9
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:33.190	+3.083	25	318.3
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.224	+3.117	26	317.4
15	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.384	+3.277	23	305.5
16	Hector Barbera	01:33.390	+3.283	24	324.1
17	Loris Capirossi	01:34.269	+4.162	17	311.5

Warm Up · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:30.942	—	9	327.1
2	Marco Simoncelli	01:32.832	+1.890	12	318.9
3	Valentino Rossi	01:32.913	+1.971	9	319.8
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.023	+2.081	12	323.5
5	Colin Edwards	01:33.106	+2.164	10	318.4
6	Randy De Puniet	01:33.266	+2.324	11	314.5
7	Marco Melandri	01:33.393	+2.451	9	324.0
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:33.599	+2.657	12	313.6
9	Nicky Hayden	01:33.636	+2.694	8	314.9
10	Mika Kallio	01:33.709	+2.767	11	321.4
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.834	+3.892	7	302.4
12	Hector Barbera	01:34.874	+3.932	9	292.5
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.191	+4.249	8	301.3
14	Ben Spies	01:35.306	+4.364	6	303.4
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:52.957	+22.015	7	273.2
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		—	0	0.0
Retired	Loris Capirossi		—	0	0.0

Race · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	41:09.128	25	27
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+8.598	20	27
3	Valentino Rossi	+17.997	16	27
4	Nicky Hayden	+18.035	13	27
5	Ben Spies	+22.211	11	27
6	Marco Simoncelli	+25.017	10	27
7	Colin Edwards	+35.168	9	27
8	Aleix Espargaro	+46.194	8	27
9	Marco Melandri	+46.294	7	27
10	Randy De Puniet	+59.635	6	27
11	Mika Kallio	+59.664	5	27
12	Alvaro Bautista	+59.732	4	27
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	+65.029	3	27
14	Hector Barbera	+65.053	2	27
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	3

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Loris Capirossi	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Daniel Pedrosa	15	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	313	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	228	−85
3	Valentino Rossi	181	−132
4	Casey Stoner	180	−133
5	Andrea Dovizioso	179	−134
6	Ben Spies	152	−161

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet