Round 6 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2010

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

24.06 – 26.06.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	41:18.629	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.935	20
3	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	+7.022	16
4	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.265	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.323	11
6	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+15.772	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+25.867	9
8	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+28.991	8
9	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+35.658	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+35.837	6
11	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+56.769	5
12	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+56.890	4
13	Loris Capirossi	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+60.615	3
14	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+68.074	2
15	Kousuke Akiyoshi	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+0.000	1

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

2.935 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Daniel Pedrosa, from P7 to P2.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Marco Simoncelli (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Daniel Pedrosa	7	3	+4
Mika Kallio	13	10	+3
Ben Spies	4	2	+2
Nicky Hayden	5	9	−4
Randy De Puniet	2	6	−4
Alvaro Bautista	12	14	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Daniel Pedrosa	7→2	+4.7
Jorge Lorenzo	1→1	+1.8
Casey Stoner	3→3	+1.1
Kousuke Akiyoshi	15→15	−3.2
Loris Capirossi	11→13	−3.7
Alvaro Bautista	12→14	−4.1

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

21.4 °C

Air

max 21.5 °C

49%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 16 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.169	—	28	290.6
2	Casey Stoner	01:35.180	+0.011	21	297.3
3	Nicky Hayden	01:35.686	+0.517	28	297.9
4	Colin Edwards	01:35.699	+0.530	25	283.9
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.868	+0.699	26	290.5
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.922	+0.753	24	292.0
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.927	+0.758	24	299.7
8	Ben Spies	01:35.942	+0.773	29	296.1
9	Marco Simoncelli	01:36.002	+0.833	26	278.1
10	Marco Melandri	01:36.269	+1.100	25	302.1
11	Randy De Puniet	01:36.294	+1.125	29	298.8
12	Hector Barbera	01:36.735	+1.566	26	283.6
13	Loris Capirossi	01:36.786	+1.617	27	281.8
14	Mika Kallio	01:37.261	+2.092	30	297.1
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:37.384	+2.215	25	281.8
16	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:41.332	+6.163	18	271.3

FP2 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.769	—	28	295.3
2	Casey Stoner	01:35.088	+0.319	26	298.6
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.451	+0.682	28	291.0
4	Ben Spies	01:35.518	+0.749	27	303.1
5	Nicky Hayden	01:35.576	+0.807	24	309.2
6	Randy De Puniet	01:35.598	+0.829	28	304.2
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.626	+0.857	28	289.6
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.640	+0.871	27	299.7
9	Marco Simoncelli	01:35.965	+1.196	27	286.9
10	Loris Capirossi	01:36.177	+1.408	28	284.4
11	Colin Edwards	01:36.224	+1.455	25	298.1
12	Marco Melandri	01:36.297	+1.528	6	312.3
13	Hector Barbera	01:36.388	+1.619	21	286.6
14	Mika Kallio	01:36.944	+2.175	25	297.9
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:37.190	+2.421	26	292.6
16	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:39.379	+4.610	23	285.8

Qualifying · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.515	—	31	303.6
2	Randy De Puniet	01:34.797	+0.282	30	303.7
3	Casey Stoner	01:34.803	+0.288	21	308.5
4	Ben Spies	01:34.926	+0.411	29	300.8
5	Nicky Hayden	01:34.999	+0.484	29	312.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.015	+0.500	30	288.8
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.162	+0.647	30	289.8
8	Marco Simoncelli	01:35.283	+0.768	28	285.9
9	Colin Edwards	01:35.393	+0.878	32	296.6
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.593	+1.078	28	305.5
11	Loris Capirossi	01:35.664	+1.149	29	295.7
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:36.344	+1.829	28	285.6
13	Mika Kallio	01:36.502	+1.987	27	303.7
14	Hector Barbera	01:36.569	+2.054	28	295.2
15	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:38.198	+3.683	24	294.8
Retired	Marco Melandri		—	0	0.0

Warm Up · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.773	—	12	303.5
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.924	+0.151	13	292.8
3	Casey Stoner	01:35.010	+0.237	10	305.9
4	Ben Spies	01:35.352	+0.579	12	292.8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.461	+0.688	12	277.9
6	Randy De Puniet	01:35.692	+0.919	12	293.4
7	Colin Edwards	01:35.721	+0.948	12	295.6
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.093	+1.320	12	292.2
9	Nicky Hayden	01:36.185	+1.412	12	309.1
10	Marco Simoncelli	01:36.379	+1.606	12	280.0
11	Loris Capirossi	01:36.516	+1.743	12	289.0
12	Mika Kallio	01:36.697	+1.924	12	287.4
13	Hector Barbera	01:37.160	+2.387	12	281.8
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:37.338	+2.565	12	293.3
15	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:40.230	+5.457	6	284.6
Retired	Marco Melandri		—	0	0.0

Race · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	41:18.629	25	26
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+2.935	20	26
3	Casey Stoner	+7.022	16	26
4	Ben Spies	+13.265	13	26
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+15.323	11	26
6	Randy De Puniet	+15.772	10	26
7	Nicky Hayden	+25.867	9	26
8	Colin Edwards	+28.991	8	26
9	Marco Simoncelli	+35.658	7	26
10	Aleix Espargaro	+35.837	6	26
11	Mika Kallio	+56.769	5	26
12	Hector Barbera	+56.890	4	26
13	Loris Capirossi	+60.615	3	26
14	Alvaro Bautista	+68.074	2	26
15	Kousuke Akiyoshi	+0.000	1	25

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Marco Melandri	16	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	115	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	78	−37
3	Daniel Pedrosa	73	−42
4	Valentino Rossi	61	−54
5	Nicky Hayden	52	−63
6	Randy De Puniet	46	−69

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet