Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2010

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

08.10 – 10.10.2010

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	41:03.448	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.224	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Fiat Yamaha Team	+6.035	16
4	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.676	13
5	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+15.402	11
6	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+18.826	10
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Interwetten Honda MotoGP	+20.218	9
8	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+23.574	8
9	Marco Melandri	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+23.964	7
10	Randy De Puniet	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+31.850	6
11	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Paginas Amarillas Aspar	+38.579	5
12	Mika Kallio	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+38.849	4
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Casey Stoner	Ducati	Ducati Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Not enough laps	0
DNF	Loris Capirossi	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

10/20

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

0.224 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marco Simoncelli	11	5	+6
Hector Barbera	15	13	+2
Randy De Puniet	13	11	+2
Valentino Rossi	6	9	−3
Alvaro Bautista	8	10	−2
Nicky Hayden	2	3	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	6→1	+5.0
Hiroshi Aoyama	14→7	+4.2
Alvaro Bautista	8→5	+2.3
Jorge Lorenzo	1→3	−0.2
Marco Melandri	10→9	−0.4
Nicky Hayden	2→6	−2.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

29.9 °C

Air

max 29.9 °C

67%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 08.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Valentino Rossi	02:02.724	—	21	304.8
2	Andrea Dovizioso	02:02.833	+0.109	22	308.8
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.898	+0.174	22	306.7
4	Casey Stoner	02:03.160	+0.436	16	308.0
5	Alvaro Bautista	02:03.338	+0.614	20	307.3
6	Colin Edwards	02:03.393	+0.669	18	303.9
7	Marco Melandri	02:03.438	+0.714	19	309.7
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.471	+0.747	22	303.0
9	Ben Spies	02:03.477	+0.753	24	304.6
10	Randy De Puniet	02:03.539	+0.815	21	305.9
11	Marco Simoncelli	02:03.680	+0.956	22	302.9
12	Loris Capirossi	02:03.717	+0.993	20	304.9
13	Hector Barbera	02:03.760	+1.036	21	310.0
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.769	+1.045	21	305.3
15	Nicky Hayden	02:03.947	+1.223	20	307.3
16	Mika Kallio	02:04.023	+1.299	24	307.9

FP2 · 09.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.949	—	22	309.8
2	Casey Stoner	02:01.971	+0.022	19	309.4
3	Valentino Rossi	02:02.192	+0.243	24	307.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:02.311	+0.362	23	309.8
5	Marco Simoncelli	02:02.543	+0.594	21	304.1
6	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.617	+0.668	23	310.3
7	Randy De Puniet	02:02.638	+0.689	23	306.6
8	Colin Edwards	02:02.774	+0.825	21	306.3
9	Hector Barbera	02:02.796	+0.847	22	313.6
10	Ben Spies	02:02.818	+0.869	26	305.9
11	Nicky Hayden	02:02.849	+0.900	22	307.8
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.921	+0.972	21	305.4
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.069	+1.120	21	307.8
14	Marco Melandri	02:03.456	+1.507	21	309.5
15	Mika Kallio	02:03.711	+1.762	22	309.4
Retired	Loris Capirossi		—	0	0.0

QP · 09.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.537	—	25	309.2
2	Nicky Hayden	02:01.637	+0.100	24	306.6
3	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.829	+0.292	24	310.3
4	Ben Spies	02:01.993	+0.456	26	304.5
5	Casey Stoner	02:02.023	+0.486	19	309.1
6	Valentino Rossi	02:02.030	+0.493	24	306.6
7	Colin Edwards	02:02.097	+0.560	23	308.8
8	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.394	+0.857	24	308.1
9	Loris Capirossi	02:02.522	+0.985	18	310.1
10	Marco Melandri	02:02.624	+1.087	22	309.6
11	Marco Simoncelli	02:02.690	+1.153	20	304.7
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.723	+1.186	22	306.6
13	Randy De Puniet	02:02.775	+1.238	22	305.4
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.778	+1.241	21	308.8
15	Hector Barbera	02:02.928	+1.391	23	311.1
16	Mika Kallio	02:04.167	+2.630	22	308.0

Warm Up · 10.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Valentino Rossi	02:02.269	—	10	309.5
2	Casey Stoner	02:02.359	+0.090	9	309.8
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.472	+0.203	9	308.8
4	Colin Edwards	02:02.642	+0.373	9	307.5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:02.730	+0.461	10	308.7
6	Nicky Hayden	02:02.770	+0.501	9	306.7
7	Ben Spies	02:03.141	+0.872	9	304.5
8	Marco Simoncelli	02:03.178	+0.909	10	305.8
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.230	+0.961	9	309.2
10	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.283	+1.014	9	305.8
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:03.285	+1.016	10	309.5
12	Randy De Puniet	02:03.462	+1.193	10	304.6
13	Marco Melandri	02:03.639	+1.370	9	311.4
14	Loris Capirossi	02:03.812	+1.543	9	305.2
15	Hector Barbera	02:03.820	+1.551	9	310.9
16	Mika Kallio	02:03.858	+1.589	10	308.6

Race · 10.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Valentino Rossi	41:03.448	25	20
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+0.224	20	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	+6.035	16	20
4	Ben Spies	+13.676	13	20
5	Alvaro Bautista	+15.402	11	20
6	Nicky Hayden	+18.826	10	20
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	+20.218	9	20
8	Marco Simoncelli	+23.574	8	20
9	Marco Melandri	+23.964	7	20
10	Randy De Puniet	+31.850	6	20
11	Hector Barbera	+38.579	5	20
12	Mika Kallio	+38.849	4	20
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	6
Out on lap 1	Casey Stoner		0	0
Not enough laps	Colin Edwards		0	14
Retired	Loris Capirossi		0	4

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	297	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	228	−69
3	Casey Stoner	180	−117
4	Andrea Dovizioso	159	−138
5	Valentino Rossi	156	−141
6	Ben Spies	139	−158

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet