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Round 1 of 20 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2023

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020
24.03 – 26.03.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team41:25.40125
2Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+0.68720
3Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+2.72616
4Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+8.06013
5Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+8.12511
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+8.24710
7Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+8.3819
8Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+8.5438
9Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+9.2947
10Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+11.5916
11Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+16.9925
12Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+17.4484
13Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+21.7233
14Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+27.0502
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFJorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFLuca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFMiguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFRaul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team19:52.86212
2Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+0.3079
3Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+1.5177
4Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+1.6036
5Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+1.8545
6Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+2.1064
7Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+2.9403
8Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+5.5952
9Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+5.7111
10Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+5.9240
11Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+8.1600
12Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+8.3840
13Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+11.2880
14Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+17.1380
15Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+18.1280
16Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+21.2350
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Out on lap 10
DNFEnea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamOut on lap 10
DNFLuca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMarco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarc Marquez · 29%Francesco Bagnaia · 22% · from P20.92 / 0.921.5 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 30%Francesco Bagnaia · 19% · from P20.84 / 0.842.3 / 2.3
Race (after the sprint)Marc Marquez · 18%Francesco Bagnaia · 14% · from P20.78 / 0.842.5 / 3.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales1:39.194—+0.292Medium23
Francesco Bagnaia1:39.253+0.059+0.221Medium23
Jorge Martin1:39.280+0.086+0.457Medium16
Marco Bezzecchi1:39.295+0.101+0.553Medium23
Fabio Quartararo1:39.321+0.127+0.275Medium22
Alex Marquez1:39.360+0.166+0.356Medium23
Johann Zarco1:39.414+0.220+0.344Medium22
Aleix Espargaro1:39.427+0.233+0.209Medium23
Brad Binder1:39.462+0.268+0.327Medium23
Jack Miller1:39.499+0.305+0.105Medium23
Luca Marini1:39.500+0.306+0.308Medium19
Alex Rins1:39.619+0.425+0.217Medium23
Joan Mir1:39.740+0.546+0.562Medium23
Raul Fernandez1:39.746+0.552+0.667Soft21
Takaaki Nakagami1:39.835+0.641+0.359Soft23
Augusto Fernandez1:40.066+0.872+0.437Medium22
Franco Morbidelli1:40.074+0.880+0.512Medium23
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:41.191+1.997+0.320Medium8

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

65
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
24/25
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.687 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P14 to P6.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Takaaki Nakagami (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

45
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
3 leaders
4/12
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.307 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:04:09Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:41Augusto FernandezRetiredRetired
Sprint15:05:19Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:05:19Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:07:23Marco BezzecchiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:04:25Joan MirLong lapLong lap penalty
Race14:07:51Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:07:59Miguel OliveiraCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:19:41Fabio Di GiannantonioRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:35:13Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:38:37Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:41:26Raul FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #36

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium90%+0.25%+0.004137.2
Soft10%+0.60%+0.0120012.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
23.1 °C
Air
max 23.2 °C
56%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
16 km/h
Wind
gusts 48 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.03 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Alex Marquez01:38.782—15339.6Medium / Soft1:40.921+0.71%5Medium
2Joan Mir01:38.827+0.04514336.4Soft / Soft1:41.009+0.80%5Medium
3Luca Marini01:38.922+0.14020338.5Medium / Soft1:43.559+3.35%7Medium
4Marco Bezzecchi01:39.018+0.23617338.5Medium / Soft1:40.577+0.37%5Medium
5Johann Zarco01:39.068+0.28616339.6Soft / Medium——
6Maverick Viñales01:39.180+0.39816342.8Soft / Medium1:40.207—11Medium
7Jorge Martin01:39.206+0.42416340.6Soft / Medium1:40.396+0.19%9Medium
8Fabio Quartararo01:39.281+0.49916338.5Soft / Medium1:40.228+0.02%5Medium
9Francesco Bagnaia01:39.475+0.69316340.6Soft / Medium1:40.886+0.68%12Medium
10Marc Marquez01:39.537+0.75514336.4Soft / Medium——
11Aleix Espargaro01:39.552+0.77013337.5Soft / Medium——
12Jack Miller01:39.558+0.77617339.6Medium / Medium1:43.318+3.11%11Medium
13Alex Rins01:39.595+0.81314337.5Soft / Medium1:41.611+1.40%10Medium
14Franco Morbidelli01:39.629+0.84713337.5Medium / Soft1:40.311+0.10%4Medium
15Enea Bastianini01:39.682+0.90014335.4Soft / Medium1:40.344+0.14%7Medium
16Miguel Oliveira01:39.794+1.01215338.5Medium / Medium1:40.348+0.14%10Medium
17Raul Fernandez01:39.894+1.11213336.4Soft / Medium1:40.701+0.49%5Medium
18Takaaki Nakagami01:40.059+1.27714334.3Soft / Medium1:42.965+2.75%9Medium
19Augusto Fernandez01:40.203+1.42117339.6Medium / Medium1:41.124+0.92%11Medium
20Pol Espargaro01:40.471+1.68912338.5Medium / Medium——
21Fabio Di Giannantonio01:40.477+1.69513332.3Soft / Soft——
22Brad Binder01:40.986+2.20415336.4Medium / Medium1:43.690+3.48%10Medium
FP2 · 24.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jack Miller01:37.709—30338.5Soft / Soft1:39.964+0.93%11Medium
2Maverick Viñales01:37.746+0.03727340.6Soft / Soft1:39.342+0.30%6Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:37.856+0.14724341.7Medium / Soft1:39.042—5Medium
4Luca Marini01:37.899+0.19027341.7Soft / Soft1:39.605+0.57%11Soft
5Jorge Martin01:37.991+0.28229339.6Medium / Soft1:39.226+0.19%10Medium
6Fabio Quartararo01:38.015+0.30629336.4Medium / Soft1:39.226+0.19%12Soft
7Johann Zarco01:38.112+0.40328339.6Soft / Soft1:39.992+0.96%5Medium
8Marco Bezzecchi01:38.158+0.44924340.6Medium / Soft1:39.432+0.39%6Medium
9Aleix Espargaro01:38.253+0.54425339.6Hard / Soft1:39.271+0.23%7Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:38.256+0.54730340.6Soft / Soft1:40.643+1.62%12Medium
11Alex Marquez01:38.385+0.67627337.5Medium / Soft1:39.765+0.73%12Medium
12Joan Mir01:38.394+0.68520331.2Medium / Soft1:39.942+0.91%5Soft
13Alex Rins01:38.416+0.70726335.4Soft / Soft——
14Marc Marquez01:38.419+0.71025339.6Medium / Soft1:39.666+0.63%5Medium
15Takaaki Nakagami01:38.827+1.11827335.4Soft / Soft——
16Augusto Fernandez01:38.882+1.17321334.3Medium / Soft——
17Raul Fernandez01:38.904+1.19521337.5Medium / Soft——
18Brad Binder01:38.910+1.20125342.8Hard / Soft1:39.924+0.89%12Soft
19Miguel Oliveira01:38.958+1.24924341.7Soft / Soft1:39.408+0.37%6Soft
20Franco Morbidelli01:38.978+1.26929339.6Medium / Soft1:40.234+1.20%5Soft
21Fabio Di Giannantonio01:39.421+1.71224337.5Soft / Soft1:41.616+2.60%5Medium
22Pol Espargaro01:40.130+2.42110339.6Medium / Soft——
Free practice · 25.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:38.577—14348.3Soft / Medium1:39.320+0.20%5Medium
2Fabio Quartararo01:38.726+0.14914340.6Medium / Medium1:40.507+1.39%5Medium
3Aleix Espargaro01:38.801+0.22414343.9Medium / Soft1:39.663+0.54%6Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:38.803+0.22611346.1Medium / Soft1:39.125—4Soft
5Miguel Oliveira01:38.862+0.28514346.1Medium / Soft1:39.266+0.14%9Soft
6Alex Marquez01:38.865+0.28814343.9Medium / Soft1:39.185+0.06%5Soft
7Maverick Viñales01:38.869+0.29213347.2Medium / Medium1:39.352+0.23%6Medium
8Jorge Martin01:38.995+0.41814345.0Medium / Medium——
9Joan Mir01:39.017+0.44011336.4Medium / Medium1:39.549+0.43%5Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:39.022+0.4459343.9Medium / Soft1:39.972+0.85%5Soft
11Takaaki Nakagami01:39.118+0.54114339.6Soft / Soft1:39.535+0.41%5Soft
12Franco Morbidelli01:39.132+0.55515338.5Soft / Medium1:39.652+0.53%8Soft
13Jack Miller01:39.166+0.58914343.9Soft / Soft1:39.558+0.44%8Soft
14Johann Zarco01:39.183+0.60614345.0Soft / Soft1:39.548+0.43%5Soft
15Luca Marini01:39.183+0.6066339.6Soft / Soft——
16Marc Marquez01:39.231+0.65415339.6Hard / Soft1:39.672+0.55%6Soft
17Raul Fernandez01:39.268+0.69112343.9Medium / Soft1:40.517+1.40%5Soft
18Alex Rins01:39.298+0.72113339.6Soft / Soft1:39.733+0.61%5Soft
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:39.447+0.87012343.9Medium / Soft——
20Brad Binder01:39.479+0.90214345.0Medium / Soft1:39.906+0.79%9Soft
21Augusto Fernandez01:39.537+0.96014338.5Medium / Soft1:39.834+0.72%6Soft
Q1 · 25.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marc Marquez01:37.675—3340.6Hard / Soft
2Miguel Oliveira01:37.849+0.1747342.8Hard / Soft
3Alex Marquez01:37.970+0.2958345.0Medium / Soft
4Joan Mir01:38.064+0.3898334.3Medium / Soft
5Brad Binder01:38.105+0.4307343.9Medium / Soft
6Alex Rins01:38.133+0.4587340.6Medium / Soft
7Franco Morbidelli01:38.335+0.6607345.0Medium / Soft
8Takaaki Nakagami01:38.439+0.7648339.6Medium / Soft
9Augusto Fernandez01:38.464+0.7897345.0Medium / Soft
10Raul Fernandez01:38.492+0.8176341.7Hard / Soft
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:38.778+1.1037343.9Medium / Soft
Q2 · 25.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marc Marquez01:37.226—8340.6Hard / Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:37.290+0.0648343.9Medium / Soft
3Jorge Martin01:37.454+0.2288343.9Medium / Soft
4Miguel Oliveira01:37.521+0.2957343.9Hard / Soft
5Jack Miller01:37.549+0.3235341.7Soft / Soft
6Enea Bastianini01:37.584+0.3588346.1Medium / Soft
7Maverick Viñales01:37.598+0.3728345.0Hard / Soft
8Marco Bezzecchi01:37.616+0.3908343.9Medium / Soft
9Luca Marini01:37.622+0.3968342.8Medium / Soft
10Johann Zarco01:37.880+0.6546342.8Soft / Soft
11Fabio Quartararo01:37.920+0.6947342.8Medium / Soft
12Aleix Espargaro01:38.136+0.9107342.8Hard / Soft
Sprint · 25.03 partly wet
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia19:52.8621212missing / missing1:39.267+0.25%10missing
2Jorge Martin+0.307912missing / missing1:39.126+0.11%10missing
3Marc Marquez+1.517712missing / missing1:39.266+0.25%10missing
4Jack Miller+1.603612missing / missing1:39.430+0.42%10missing
5Maverick Viñales+1.854512missing / missing1:39.017—9missing
6Aleix Espargaro+2.106412missing / missing1:39.106+0.09%9missing
7Miguel Oliveira+2.940312missing / missing1:39.353+0.34%10missing
8Johann Zarco+5.595212missing / missing1:39.443+0.43%10missing
9Alex Marquez+5.711112missing / missing1:39.415+0.40%10missing
10Fabio Quartararo+5.924012missing / missing1:39.138+0.12%10missing
11Raul Fernandez+8.160012missing / missing1:39.576+0.57%10missing
12Brad Binder+8.384012missing / missing1:39.588+0.58%10missing
13Alex Rins+11.288012missing / missing1:39.758+0.75%10missing
14Franco Morbidelli+17.138012missing / missing1:40.276+1.27%10missing
15Takaaki Nakagami+18.128012missing / missing1:40.489+1.49%10missing
16Fabio Di Giannantonio+21.235012missing / missing1:40.697+1.70%10missing
Out on lap 1Augusto Fernandez00— / ———
RetiredEnea Bastianini01missing / missing——
Out on lap 1Joan Mir00— / ———
RetiredLuca Marini01missing / missing——
RetiredMarco Bezzecchi02missing / missing——
Warm Up · 26.03 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Alex Marquez01:38.719—6347.2Soft / Medium
2Fabio Quartararo01:38.872+0.1534337.5Medium / Soft
3Marc Marquez01:38.874+0.1556338.5Soft / Medium
4Jorge Martin01:38.934+0.2156347.2Medium / Medium
5Jack Miller01:39.020+0.3016348.3Soft / Medium
6Miguel Oliveira01:39.058+0.3396337.5Medium / Medium
7Francesco Bagnaia01:39.071+0.3525341.7Soft / Medium
8Brad Binder01:39.204+0.4856346.1Medium / Medium
9Marco Bezzecchi01:39.211+0.4926343.9Soft / Medium
10Aleix Espargaro01:39.229+0.5106346.1Soft / Medium
11Takaaki Nakagami01:39.409+0.6906339.6Soft / Soft
12Alex Rins01:39.441+0.7226340.6Medium / missing
13Luca Marini01:39.451+0.7326340.6Soft / Medium
14Raul Fernandez01:39.503+0.7846341.7Soft / Soft
15Franco Morbidelli01:39.714+0.9956335.4Medium / Medium
16Joan Mir01:39.737+1.0186338.5Soft / Medium
17Johann Zarco01:39.744+1.0256350.6Soft / Medium
18Maverick Viñales01:39.806+1.0876341.7Soft / Medium
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:39.889+1.1706338.5Soft / Medium
20Augusto Fernandez01:39.943+1.2245335.4Soft / Medium
Race · 26.03
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia41:25.4012525Medium / Medium1:39.253+0.06%23Medium
2Maverick Viñales+0.6872025Hard / Medium1:39.194—23Medium
3Marco Bezzecchi+2.7261625Medium / Medium1:39.295+0.10%23Medium
4Johann Zarco+8.0601325Medium / Medium1:39.414+0.22%22Medium
5Alex Marquez+8.1251125Medium / Medium1:39.360+0.17%23Medium
6Brad Binder+8.2471025Hard / Medium1:39.462+0.27%23Medium
7Jack Miller+8.381925Hard / Medium1:39.499+0.31%23Medium
8Fabio Quartararo+8.543825Medium / Medium1:39.321+0.13%22Medium
9Aleix Espargaro+9.294725Hard / Medium1:39.427+0.24%23Medium
10Alex Rins+11.591625Medium / Medium1:39.619+0.43%23Medium
11Joan Mir+16.992525Medium / Medium1:39.740+0.55%23Medium
12Takaaki Nakagami+17.448425Medium / Soft1:39.835+0.65%23Soft
13Augusto Fernandez+21.723325Hard / Medium1:40.066+0.88%22Medium
14Franco Morbidelli+27.050225Medium / Medium1:40.074+0.89%23Medium
RetiredFabio Di Giannantonio010Medium / Medium1:41.191+2.01%8Medium
RetiredJorge Martin019Hard / Medium1:39.280+0.09%16Medium
RetiredLuca Marini021Medium / Medium1:39.500+0.31%19Medium
RetiredMarc Marquez02Hard / Medium——
RetiredMiguel Oliveira02Hard / Medium——
RetiredRaul Fernandez023Hard / Soft1:39.746+0.56%21Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:38.881—+0.275Medium6
Francesco Bagnaia1:39.042+0.161+0.221Medium5
Marco Bezzecchi1:39.260+0.379+0.553Medium6
Luca Marini1:39.262*+0.381+0.308Medium4
Jorge Martin1:39.282+0.401+0.457Medium7
Johann Zarco1:39.414*+0.533+0.344Medium3
Enea Bastianini1:39.581+0.700+0.319Medium5
Marc Marquez1:39.665*+0.784+0.210Medium3
Alex Rins1:39.686+0.805+0.217Medium5
Franco Morbidelli1:39.696+0.815+0.512Medium6
Alex Marquez1:39.713+0.832+0.356Medium10
Jack Miller1:39.849*+0.968+0.105Medium3
Miguel Oliveira1:40.107+1.226+0.193Medium6
Augusto Fernandez1:40.572+1.691+0.437Medium8
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.734*+1.853+0.359Medium3
Pol Espargaro1:40.761*+1.880+0.406Medium4
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:41.551*+2.670+0.320Medium3
Brad Binder1:41.607*+2.726+0.327Medium4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21
Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceEnea Bastianini6——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez129%57%71%80%19%3
Francesco Bagnaia222%52%66%78%19%1
Jorge Martin314%44%63%79%19%2
Miguel Oliveira411%36%56%77%19%7
Jack Miller57%28%49%75%19%4
Maverick Viñales66%23%44%74%19%5
Marco Bezzecchi74%18%37%72%19%—
Luca Marini82%13%31%69%19%—
Johann Zarco92%8%22%63%19%8
Fabio Quartararo101%6%16%59%19%10
Aleix Espargaro111%4%14%53%19%6
Alex Marquez121%4%10%48%19%9
Joan Mir130%2%7%41%19%—
Brad Binder140%2%5%33%19%12
Alex Rins150%1%4%29%19%13
Franco Morbidelli160%1%3%23%19%14
Takaaki Nakagami170%0%2%16%19%15
Augusto Fernandez180%0%1%12%19%—
Raul Fernandez190%0%1%9%19%11
Fabio Di Giannantonio200%0%1%6%19%16
Enea Bastianini210%0%0%5%19%—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez118%43%61%81%15%—
Francesco Bagnaia214%38%52%69%28%1
Jorge Martin317%42%57%72%25%—
Miguel Oliveira49%29%47%76%16%—
Jack Miller55%16%33%66%25%7
Maverick Viñales617%46%66%85%11%2
Marco Bezzecchi75%18%34%72%16%3
Luca Marini83%13%29%76%5%—
Johann Zarco91%7%17%58%18%4
Fabio Quartararo105%19%37%74%15%8
Aleix Espargaro115%19%36%67%24%9
Alex Marquez121%3%9%43%23%5
Joan Mir130%2%5%30%21%11
Brad Binder140%2%5%34%12%6
Alex Rins150%1%4%26%21%10
Franco Morbidelli160%1%2%19%18%14
Takaaki Nakagami170%1%2%14%16%12
Augusto Fernandez180%0%1%8%19%13
Raul Fernandez190%1%3%21%13%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio200%0%1%7%20%—
Enea Bastianini210%0%0%4%19%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Maverick Viñales26% → 46%+206% → 17%
Aleix Espargaro5% → 19%+151% → 5%
Fabio Quartararo7% → 19%+131% → 5%
Dropping
Marc Marquez59% → 43%−1630% → 18%
Jack Miller27% → 16%−107% → 5%
Miguel Oliveira37% → 29%−812% → 9%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales1:39.017—+0.292missing9
Aleix Espargaro1:39.106+0.089+0.209missing9
Jorge Martin1:39.126+0.109+0.457missing10
Fabio Quartararo1:39.138+0.121+0.275missing10
Marc Marquez1:39.266+0.249+0.210missing10
Francesco Bagnaia1:39.267+0.250+0.221missing10
Miguel Oliveira1:39.353+0.336+0.193missing10
Alex Marquez1:39.415+0.398+0.356missing10
Jack Miller1:39.430+0.413+0.105missing10
Johann Zarco1:39.443+0.426+0.344missing10
Raul Fernandez1:39.576+0.559+0.667missing10
Brad Binder1:39.588+0.571+0.327missing10
Alex Rins1:39.758+0.741+0.217missing10
Franco Morbidelli1:40.276+1.259+0.512missing10
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.489+1.472+0.359missing10
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:40.697+1.680+0.320missing10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BezzecchiS2 · A. MarquezS3 · BagnaiaS4 · A. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
61%
Front row on the podium
0.68
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

53
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
22/25
Laps led by the winner
Fabio Quartararo
5.409 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P4.

Longest battle: Darryn Binder vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2022 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:39.833—+0.275Medium23
Aleix Espargaro1:39.968+0.135+0.209Medium23
Jack Miller1:40.018+0.185+0.105Medium16
Johann Zarco1:40.024+0.191+0.344Medium22
Alex Rins1:40.032+0.199+0.217Medium23
Joan Mir1:40.082+0.249+0.562Medium16
Francesco Bagnaia1:40.257+0.424+0.221Medium23
Miguel Oliveira1:40.348+0.515+0.193Medium23
Marc Marquez1:40.358+0.525+0.210Medium22
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.372+0.539+0.359Medium20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
  • 2012Casey StonerHonda
  • 2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20253/2114%
20244/2218%
20236/2030%
20227/2429%
20215/2124%
20204/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium92%+0.62%−0.008139.1
Hard8%+0.57%−0.011008.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.