Round 3 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2013

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

03.05 – 05.05.2013

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	45:17.632	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.487	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+5.089	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+8.914	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+12.663	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+15.094	10
7	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+25.632	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+41.881	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+43.812	7
10	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+44.461	6
11	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Test Team	+45.974	5
12	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+59.859	4
13	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+69.743	3
14	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+77.813	2
15	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+78.177	1
16	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+78.928	0
17	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+79.307	0
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+79.457	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/27

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

2.487 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P13 to P9.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Michele Pirro (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Michael Laverty	22	18	+4
Claudio Corti	19	17	+2
Bradley Smith	12	10	+2
Hector Barbera	10	13	−3
Danilo Petrucci	17	20	−3
Colin Edwards	20	23	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Michael Laverty	22→13	+3.3
Daniel Pedrosa	2→1	+2.5
Marc Marquez	3→2	+2.1
Claudio Corti	19→17	−2.6
Hector Barbera	10→12	−3.4
Hiroshi Aoyama	16→18	−5.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

25.1 °C

Air

max 25.4 °C

41%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Stefan Bradl	—	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	—	3
3	Bradley Smith	—	2 ✓
4	Michele Pirro	—	4
5	Danilo Petrucci	—	7
6	Randy De Puniet	—	5
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	—	6
8	Lukas Pesek	—	13
9	Bryan Staring	—	8
10	Yonny Hernandez	—	11
11	Colin Edwards	—	10
12	Claudio Corti	—	9
13	Michael Laverty	—	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Cal Crutchlow	—	—	—	4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	—	—	—	2
3	Jorge Lorenzo	—	—	—	1
4	Valentino Rossi	—	—	—	5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	—	—	—	9
6	Marc Marquez	—	—	—	3
7	Hector Barbera	—	—	—	10
8	Nicky Hayden	—	—	—	7
9	Andrea Iannone	—	—	—	11
10	Alvaro Bautista	—	—	—	6
11	Stefan Bradl	—	—	—	8
12	Bradley Smith	—	—	—	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Karel Abraham	24	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	41	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	41	—
3	Daniel Pedrosa	33	−8
4	Valentino Rossi	30	−11
5	Cal Crutchlow	24	−17
6	Andrea Dovizioso	18	−23

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/27

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

0.947 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P13 to P9.

Longest battle: Casey Stoner vs Jorge Lorenzo (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%