Round 3 of 18 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2012

4.182 m · since 1972

04.05 – 06.05.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	45:37.513	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+1.421	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.621	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.846	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+16.690	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+21.884	10
7	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+26.797	9
8	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+33.262	8
9	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+35.867	7
10	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+53.363	6
11	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+62.630	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+80.736	4
13	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+83.483	3
14	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+97.905	2
15	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda	Came IodaRacing Project	+0.000	1
DNF	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Mattia Pasini	ART	Speed Master	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

1.421 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P7 to P4.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Jorge Lorenzo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Colin Edwards	21	14	+7
James Ellison	18	15	+3
Jorge Lorenzo	4	2	+2
Hector Barbera	8	11	−3
Michele Pirro	16	19	−3
Randy De Puniet	14	16	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Lorenzo	4→2	+2.8
Andrea Dovizioso	7→4	+2.7
Casey Stoner	1→1	+1.8
Nicky Hayden	10→11	−2.4
Ben Spies	5→8	−2.6
Hector Barbera	8→10	−2.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

17.8 °C

Air

max 18.0 °C

56%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps
1	Ben Spies	01:40.813	—	17
2	Nicky Hayden	01:41.086	+0.273	7
3	Valentino Rossi	01:41.502	+0.689	8
4	Casey Stoner	01:41.943	+1.130	6
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.230	+1.417	8
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:42.291	+1.478	5
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.343	+1.530	12
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:43.078	+2.265	5
9	Yonny Hernandez	01:43.256	+2.443	17
10	Karel Abraham	01:43.265	+2.452	11
11	Randy De Puniet	01:43.277	+2.464	6
12	Michele Pirro	01:43.511	+2.698	14
13	Stefan Bradl	01:43.527	+2.714	5
14	Colin Edwards	01:44.909	+4.096	13
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:45.148	+4.335	16
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.636	+4.823	7
17	Mattia Pasini	01:46.004	+5.191	8
18	Ivan Silva	01:46.271	+5.458	16
Retired	Hector Barbera		—	0
—	James Ellison	01:52.429	+11.616	6
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0

FP2 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	01:38.396	—	17
2	Ben Spies	01:38.717	+0.321	21
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.742	+0.346	20
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.797	+0.401	19
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.930	+0.534	16
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.959	+0.563	20
7	Nicky Hayden	01:39.029	+0.633	19
8	Hector Barbera	01:39.193	+0.797	18
9	Valentino Rossi	01:39.357	+0.961	20
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.615	+1.219	17
11	Karel Abraham	01:40.207	+1.811	18
12	Stefan Bradl	01:40.898	+2.502	19
13	Randy De Puniet	01:41.088	+2.692	19
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.634	+3.238	19
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.638	+3.242	20
16	Mattia Pasini	01:41.973	+3.577	19
17	Michele Pirro	01:42.252	+3.856	17
18	Colin Edwards	01:42.587	+4.191	16
19	Ivan Silva	01:42.804	+4.408	20
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.984	+4.588	11
21	James Ellison	01:43.665	+5.269	17

FP3 · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.326	—	17
2	Casey Stoner	01:37.338	+0.012	18
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.680	+0.354	20
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.086	+0.760	20
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.273	+0.947	21
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.332	+1.006	21
7	Valentino Rossi	01:38.443	+1.117	21
8	Ben Spies	01:38.558	+1.232	19
9	Nicky Hayden	01:38.602	+1.276	21
10	Stefan Bradl	01:38.714	+1.388	19
11	Hector Barbera	01:38.856	+1.530	18
12	Randy De Puniet	01:39.361	+2.035	17
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.225	+2.899	18
14	Karel Abraham	01:40.374	+3.048	10
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.561	+3.235	20
16	Mattia Pasini	01:40.875	+3.549	17
17	Michele Pirro	01:41.379	+4.053	17
18	Ivan Silva	01:41.772	+4.446	14
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.002	+4.676	21
20	James Ellison	01:42.103	+4.777	15
21	Colin Edwards	01:42.145	+4.819	17

Qualifying · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	01:37.188	—	24
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.201	+0.013	24
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.289	+0.101	28
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.466	+0.278	29
5	Ben Spies	01:37.723	+0.535	26
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:37.917	+0.729	29
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.943	+0.755	27
8	Hector Barbera	01:38.006	+0.818	25
9	Valentino Rossi	01:38.059	+0.871	28
10	Nicky Hayden	01:38.253	+1.065	25
11	Stefan Bradl	01:38.265	+1.077	29
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.353	+2.165	26
13	Karel Abraham	01:39.398	+2.210	25
14	Randy De Puniet	01:39.586	+2.398	19
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.029	+2.841	26
16	Michele Pirro	01:40.225	+3.037	26
17	Mattia Pasini	01:40.387	+3.199	22
18	Colin Edwards	01:40.964	+3.776	15
19	James Ellison	01:41.394	+4.206	22
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.486	+4.298	23
21	Ivan Silva	01:41.490	+4.302	22

Warm Up · 06.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:36.795	—	10	332.3
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.593	+0.798	11	328.8
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.658	+0.863	12	329.2
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.686	+0.891	12	325.9
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.725	+0.930	12	330.1
6	Ben Spies	01:37.895	+1.100	11	326.9
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.070	+1.275	12	329.9
8	Nicky Hayden	01:38.312	+1.517	11	330.6
9	Valentino Rossi	01:38.329	+1.534	12	331.4
10	Stefan Bradl	01:38.598	+1.803	12	330.6
11	Hector Barbera	01:38.625	+1.830	10	332.9
12	Karel Abraham	01:39.535	+2.740	12	329.5
13	Randy De Puniet	01:40.088	+3.293	11	311.4
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.276	+3.481	11	310.7
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.618	+3.823	12	307.6
16	Mattia Pasini	01:40.676	+3.881	13	309.9
17	Michele Pirro	01:41.319	+4.524	10	302.4
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.612	+4.817	12	293.6
19	James Ellison	01:41.670	+4.875	11	310.3
20	Ivan Silva	01:42.362	+5.567	6	302.6
Retired	Colin Edwards		—	0	0.0

Race · 06.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Casey Stoner	45:37.513	25	28
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+1.421	20	28
3	Daniel Pedrosa	+3.621	16	28
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+13.846	13	28
5	Cal Crutchlow	+16.690	11	28
6	Alvaro Bautista	+21.884	10	28
7	Valentino Rossi	+26.797	9	28
8	Ben Spies	+33.262	8	28
9	Stefan Bradl	+35.867	7	28
10	Hector Barbera	+53.363	6	28
11	Nicky Hayden	+62.630	5	28
12	Aleix Espargaro	+80.736	4	28
13	Randy De Puniet	+83.483	3	28
14	Michele Pirro	+97.905	2	28
15	Danilo Petrucci	+0.000	1	27
Retired	Ivan Silva		0	11
Retired	James Ellison		0	18
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	23
Retired	Mattia Pasini		0	11
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	16

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Colin Edwards	18	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line · 4,191 m per lap

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	45	—
2	Casey Stoner	41	−4
3	Daniel Pedrosa	36	−9
4	Cal Crutchlow	26	−19
5	Andrea Dovizioso	22	−23
6	Alvaro Bautista	19	−26

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/28

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

3.051 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Randy De Puniet, from P16 to P10.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (28 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet