Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2013

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

27.09 – 29.09.2013

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:03.459	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+1.356	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+12.927	16
4	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+13.787	13
5	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+13.973	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+14.662	10
7	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+31.220	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+40.671	8
9	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+53.413	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+55.067	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+58.001	5
12	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Ignite Pramac Racing	+65.513	4
13	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+66.589	3
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+68.674	2
15	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+69.130	1
16	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+72.041	0
17	Luca Scassa	ART	Cardion AB Motoracing	+105.152	0
18	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+105.228	0
19	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+105.583	0
DNF	Damian Cudlin	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Michael Laverty	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.356 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P6 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Bradley Smith (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Damian Cudlin	24	20	+4
Lukas Pesek	23	19	+4
Claudio Corti	18	16	+2
Hector Barbera	19	21	−2
Bradley Smith	8	9	−1
Marc Marquez	1	2	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	6→4	+2.0
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Valentino Rossi	4→3	+1.8
Aleix Espargaro	10→11	−2.4
Hiroshi Aoyama	14→14	−2.8
Colin Edwards	17→16	−2.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 24.2 °C

35%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

19 km/h

Wind

gusts 48 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Bradley Smith	77%	1 ✓
2	Andrea Iannone	39%	2 ✓
3	Hector Barbera	46%	9
4	Yonny Hernandez	8%	3
5	Claudio Corti	23%	8
6	Danilo Petrucci	0%	5
7	Randy De Puniet	8%	6
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	4
9	Colin Edwards	0%	7
10	Michael Laverty	0%	10
11	Luca Scassa	0%	12
12	Bryan Staring	0%	11
13	Lukas Pesek	0%	13
14	Damian Cudlin	—	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Lorenzo	46%	85%	100%	2
2	Daniel Pedrosa	15%	46%	100%	3
3	Marc Marquez	31%	46%	92%	1
4	Stefan Bradl	8%	39%	62%	5
5	Cal Crutchlow	0%	39%	77%	7
6	Valentino Rossi	0%	15%	54%	4
7	Alvaro Bautista	0%	23%	46%	6
8	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	8%	15%	9
9	Aleix Espargaro	0%	0%	23%	10
10	Bradley Smith	0%	0%	23%	8
11	Nicky Hayden	0%	0%	0%	11
12	Andrea Iannone	—	—	—	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Andrea Iannone +0.25%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	253	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	219	−34
3	Jorge Lorenzo	219	−34
4	Valentino Rossi	169	−84
5	Cal Crutchlow	146	−107
6	Stefan Bradl	124	−129

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/23

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

6.472 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P12 to P6.

Longest battle: Colin Edwards vs James Ellison (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%