MotoGP Indianapolis 2013: schedule, stats and forecast

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	44:52.463	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.495	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+5.704	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+19.895	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+19.955	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+20.061	10
7	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+24.842	9
8	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+40.690	8
9	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+40.701	7
10	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+40.823	6
11	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+59.668	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+66.650	4
13	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+69.462	3
14	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+75.207	2
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+80.159	1
16	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+85.879	0
17	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+89.616	0
18	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+96.388	0
19	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+0.000	0
DNF	Blake Young	APR	Attack Performance Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

15/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.495 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P9 to P4.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Cal Crutchlow (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	7	4	+3
Jorge Lorenzo	2	1	+1
Claudio Corti	16	15	+1
Danilo Petrucci	14	16	−2
Marc Marquez	1	3	−2
Nicky Hayden	6	8	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	9→4	+4.0
Daniel Pedrosa	3→2	+2.1
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Bryan Staring	20→19	−4.0
Michael Laverty	18→18	−4.2
Danilo Petrucci	14→17	−5.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

26.9 °C

Air

max 27.0 °C

44%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.781	—	19	331.6
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.081	+0.300	18	326.3
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.261	+0.480	18	329.5
4	Stefan Bradl	01:41.424	+0.643	20	333.7
5	Valentino Rossi	01:41.547	+0.766	21	331.6
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.571	+0.790	18	333.6
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:41.590	+0.809	19	333.0
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.793	+1.012	19	331.3
9	Nicky Hayden	01:41.830	+1.049	20	330.8
10	Bradley Smith	01:42.405	+1.624	21	330.4
11	Ben Spies	01:42.507	+1.726	18	328.4
12	Andrea Iannone	01:42.745	+1.964	19	328.7
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.866	+2.085	14	318.9
14	Yonny Hernandez	01:43.088	+2.307	11	313.7
15	Colin Edwards	01:43.570	+2.789	17	317.6
16	Karel Abraham	01:44.009	+3.228	5	315.7
17	Randy De Puniet	01:44.125	+3.344	18	313.4
18	Claudio Corti	01:44.316	+3.535	19	316.8
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:44.395	+3.614	22	316.2
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:44.606	+3.825	17	311.4
21	Hector Barbera	01:44.698	+3.917	18	316.5
22	Lukas Pesek	01:45.379	+4.598	19	306.9
23	Bryan Staring	01:45.527	+4.746	20	312.7
24	Michael Laverty	01:45.688	+4.907	18	316.9
25	Blake Young	01:47.770	+6.989	15	306.6

FP2 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.502	—	21	333.6
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.582	+0.080	19	335.4
3	Stefan Bradl	01:39.681	+0.179	19	336.5
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.765	+0.263	17	332.9
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.813	+0.311	22	331.2
6	Valentino Rossi	01:40.084	+0.582	22	334.0
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.087	+0.585	21	335.8
8	Bradley Smith	01:40.240	+0.738	20	331.3
9	Nicky Hayden	01:40.433	+0.931	21	332.9
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.552	+1.050	19	333.4
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.750	+1.248	20	320.6
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.099	+1.597	23	319.0
13	Ben Spies	01:41.145	+1.643	20	330.1
14	Andrea Iannone	01:41.444	+1.942	20	330.1
15	Claudio Corti	01:41.552	+2.050	19	318.9
16	Colin Edwards	01:41.588	+2.086	21	320.3
17	Hector Barbera	01:41.814	+2.312	19	321.0
18	Randy De Puniet	01:41.956	+2.454	20	316.1
19	Yonny Hernandez	01:42.088	+2.586	18	315.2
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:42.808	+3.306	20	316.4
21	Lukas Pesek	01:42.828	+3.326	18	312.4
22	Karel Abraham	01:42.927	+3.425	17	318.8
23	Bryan Staring	01:43.253	+3.751	20	314.6
24	Michael Laverty	01:43.741	+4.239	19	316.4
25	Blake Young	01:45.590	+6.088	15	310.2

FP3 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.844	—	19	334.6
2	Stefan Bradl	01:39.125	+0.281	21	336.3
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.441	+0.597	19	330.4
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.538	+0.694	21	335.3
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.569	+0.725	19	334.1
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.597	+0.753	19	332.2
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.640	+0.796	21	334.6
8	Bradley Smith	01:39.765	+0.921	21	330.5
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.812	+0.968	19	332.2
10	Nicky Hayden	01:39.889	+1.045	21	333.3
11	Andrea Iannone	01:39.906	+1.062	19	331.7
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.879	+2.035	21	317.8
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.895	+2.051	11	319.0
14	Ben Spies	01:41.451	+2.607	8	332.4
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.707	+2.863	19	314.4
16	Colin Edwards	01:41.845	+3.001	19	318.7
17	Claudio Corti	01:41.853	+3.009	19	316.2
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:42.041	+3.197	18	314.5
19	Hector Barbera	01:42.042	+3.198	16	319.8
20	Bryan Staring	01:42.375	+3.531	19	314.6
21	Randy De Puniet	01:42.583	+3.739	15	311.8
22	Michael Laverty	01:42.647	+3.803	18	317.5
23	Lukas Pesek	01:42.789	+3.945	17	309.8
24	Karel Abraham	01:43.325	+4.481	18	318.2
25	Blake Young	01:44.956	+6.112	14	307.4

FP4 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.986	—	14	334.1
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.114	+0.128	15	331.3
3	Stefan Bradl	01:39.137	+0.151	12	336.0
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.317	+0.331	17	332.7
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.500	+0.514	15	336.7
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.581	+0.595	14	335.4
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.782	+0.796	16	333.0
8	Bradley Smith	01:39.978	+0.992	14	328.4
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.171	+1.185	15	331.6
10	Nicky Hayden	01:40.373	+1.387	14	332.2
11	Andrea Iannone	01:40.881	+1.895	14	330.0
12	Claudio Corti	01:41.195	+2.209	14	315.4
13	Colin Edwards	01:41.215	+2.229	15	316.5
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.355	+2.369	13	315.7
15	Hector Barbera	01:41.594	+2.608	13	318.9
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.840	+2.854	12	313.9
17	Randy De Puniet	01:41.844	+2.858	13	314.1
18	Michael Laverty	01:42.113	+3.127	13	316.2
19	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:42.164	+3.178	12	314.6
20	Lukas Pesek	01:42.231	+3.245	10	309.0
21	Bryan Staring	01:42.550	+3.564	14	313.7
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.068	+4.082	2	319.8
23	Karel Abraham	01:43.085	+4.099	12	314.5
24	Blake Young	01:45.139	+6.153	12	309.3
Retired	Ben Spies		—	0	0.0

Q1 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Colin Edwards	01:40.328	—	7	316.5
2	Andrea Iannone	01:40.418	+0.090	7	332.9
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.444	+0.116	6	318.8
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.122	+0.794	8	314.1
5	Randy De Puniet	01:41.154	+0.826	8	314.0
6	Claudio Corti	01:41.334	+1.006	7	312.9
7	Hector Barbera	01:41.527	+1.199	5	318.2
8	Michael Laverty	01:41.618	+1.290	9	316.2
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:41.665	+1.337	7	315.2
10	Bryan Staring	01:41.786	+1.458	6	316.5
11	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.807	+1.479	8	315.0
12	Lukas Pesek	01:41.868	+1.540	7	310.9
13	Karel Abraham	01:42.165	+1.837	8	317.8
14	Blake Young	01:44.472	+4.144	4	306.9
Retired	Ben Spies		—	0	0.0

Q2 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.958	—	8	335.5
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.471	+0.513	8	332.2
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.485	+0.527	8	338.1
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.502	+0.544	8	332.4
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.872	+0.914	8	336.0
6	Nicky Hayden	01:39.142	+1.184	8	333.8
7	Bradley Smith	01:39.255	+1.297	8	330.9
8	Stefan Bradl	01:39.313	+1.355	7	336.7
9	Valentino Rossi	01:39.356	+1.398	8	333.1
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.555	+1.597	8	334.1
11	Andrea Iannone	01:40.042	+2.084	8	330.8
12	Colin Edwards	01:40.372	+2.414	7	318.4

Warm Up · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.776	—	10	334.1
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.085	+0.309	11	331.1
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.182	+0.406	10	336.5
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.209	+0.433	12	331.7
5	Stefan Bradl	01:39.623	+0.847	12	334.7
6	Valentino Rossi	01:39.769	+0.993	11	330.6
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.859	+1.083	12	333.1
8	Bradley Smith	01:39.970	+1.194	12	329.7
9	Nicky Hayden	01:40.197	+1.421	11	331.7
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.223	+1.447	12	330.6
11	Andrea Iannone	01:40.317	+1.541	11	328.2
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.700	+1.924	9	320.9
13	Claudio Corti	01:41.105	+2.329	11	318.9
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:41.290	+2.514	12	317.8
15	Colin Edwards	01:41.291	+2.515	11	318.8
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.630	+2.854	11	313.4
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.709	+2.933	10	313.5
18	Randy De Puniet	01:41.760	+2.984	12	313.0
19	Michael Laverty	01:42.612	+3.836	10	316.5
20	Lukas Pesek	01:42.622	+3.846	11	311.5
21	Hector Barbera	01:42.625	+3.849	11	318.4
22	Bryan Staring	01:42.681	+3.905	11	313.4
23	Karel Abraham	01:43.161	+4.385	8	316.0
24	Blake Young	01:44.794	+6.018	7	308.7
Retired	Ben Spies		—	0	0.0

Race · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	44:52.463	25	27
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+3.495	20	27
3	Jorge Lorenzo	+5.704	16	27
4	Valentino Rossi	+19.895	13	27
5	Cal Crutchlow	+19.955	11	27
6	Alvaro Bautista	+20.061	10	27
7	Stefan Bradl	+24.842	9	27
8	Bradley Smith	+40.690	8	27
9	Nicky Hayden	+40.701	7	27
10	Andrea Dovizioso	+40.823	6	27
11	Andrea Iannone	+59.668	5	27
12	Aleix Espargaro	+66.650	4	27
13	Colin Edwards	+69.462	3	27
14	Claudio Corti	+75.207	2	27
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	+80.159	1	27
16	Hector Barbera	+85.879	0	27
17	Danilo Petrucci	+89.616	0	27
18	Michael Laverty	+96.388	0	27
19	Bryan Staring	+0.000	0	26
Out on lap 1	Blake Young		0	0
Retired	Lukas Pesek		0	14
Retired	Randy De Puniet		0	5
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	17

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Iannone	—	2 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	—	3
3	Danilo Petrucci	—	4
4	Claudio Corti	—	6
5	Colin Edwards	—	1 ✓
6	Hector Barbera	—	7
7	Yonny Hernandez	—	11
8	Randy De Puniet	—	5
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	—	9
10	Michael Laverty	—	8
11	Lukas Pesek	—	12
12	Bryan Staring	—	10
13	Karel Abraham	—	13
14	Blake Young	—	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	—	—	—	1
2	Cal Crutchlow	—	—	—	4
3	Stefan Bradl	—	—	—	8
4	Jorge Lorenzo	—	—	—	2
5	Daniel Pedrosa	—	—	—	3
6	Alvaro Bautista	—	—	—	5
7	Valentino Rossi	—	—	—	9
8	Bradley Smith	—	—	—	7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	—	—	—	10
10	Nicky Hayden	—	—	—	6
11	Andrea Iannone	—	—	—	11
12	Colin Edwards	—	—	—	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Ben Spies	25	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Karel Abraham	23	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Pending · no data yet

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	163	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	147	−16
3	Jorge Lorenzo	137	−26
4	Valentino Rossi	117	−46
5	Cal Crutchlow	116	−47
6	Stefan Bradl	84	−79

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

26/28

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

10.823 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P10 to P7.

Longest battle: Colin Edwards vs Karel Abraham (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2015Marc MarquezHonda
2014Marc MarquezHonda
2013Marc MarquezHonda
2012Daniel PedrosaHonda
2011Casey StonerHonda
2010Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2015	1/23	4%
2014	8/23	35%
2013	4/23	17%
2012	6/22	27%
2011	3/17	18%
2010	4/17	24%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Indianapolis Grand Prix 2013

What happened

Race result

Sprint result

Forecast vs reality

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Race pace

The race in numbers

Incidents

The start

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

The tyre gamble

Race weather

As it happens

The weekend, session by session

Long-run pace in practice

Who will make it to Q2

Pole and front row

Grid penalties

Sprint forecast

Race forecast

What the sprint changed

Sprint pace

Before the race

Who rules each sector

A track for grid position, or an open one?

How they arrive in the standings

The last race here in numbers

Race pace at the last edition

Winners here

Attrition here

Tyres at the last edition