Round 10 of 18 Aftermath

Indianapolis Grand Prix 2014

Indianapolis Motor Speedway United States

08.08 – 10.08.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:07.041	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+1.803	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+6.558	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.016	13
5	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+17.807	11
6	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+19.604	10
7	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+20.759	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Ducati	Ducati Team	+39.796	8
9	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+40.507	7
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+55.760	6
11	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	+65.130	5
12	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+65.346	4
13	Colin Edwards	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+68.919	3
14	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+69.203	2
15	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+90.613	1
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Avintia	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Leon Camier	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.803 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P18 to P10.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Michele Pirro (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:03:40	Yonny Hernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:40	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:56		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:12:18	Hector Barbera	Retired	retired
Race	14:13:21	Danilo Petrucci	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:22:32	Stefan Bradl	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:10	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	retired
Race	14:27:06	Andrea Iannone	Retired	retired
Race	14:36:11	Leon Camier	Retired	entered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Valentino Rossi (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Hiroshi Aoyama	18	13	+5
Michael Laverty	23	18	+5
Andrea Iannone	7	3	+4
Aleix Espargaro	4	8	−4
Jorge Lorenzo	3	6	−3
Marc Marquez	1	4	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Karel Abraham	21→11	+4.7
Hiroshi Aoyama	18→10	+3.8
Daniel Pedrosa	8→4	+3.3
Scott Redding	11→9	+0.3
Colin Edwards	15→13	−1.2
Andrea Dovizioso	2→7	−3.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

27.4 °C

Air

max 27.9 °C

66%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Yonny Hernandez	81%	3
2	Alvaro Bautista	46%	4
3	Scott Redding	39%	1 ✓
4	Danilo Petrucci	12%	7
5	Cal Crutchlow	15%	2 ✓
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	8
7	Leon Camier	8%	6
8	Karel Abraham	0%	11
9	Hector Barbera	0%	10
10	Mike Di Meglio	0%	9
11	Broc Parkes	0%	12
12	Colin Edwards	0%	5
13	Michael Laverty	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	42%	73%	96%	1
2	Stefan Bradl	23%	62%	92%	10
3	Valentino Rossi	23%	54%	92%	5
4	Jorge Lorenzo	4%	35%	62%	3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	35%	73%	2
6	Pol Espargaro	4%	19%	50%	6
7	Andrea Iannone	0%	15%	58%	7
8	Bradley Smith	0%	4%	27%	9
9	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	0%	12%	8
10	Aleix Espargaro	0%	4%	19%	4
11	Scott Redding	0%	0%	4%	11
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	0%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	225	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	148	−77
3	Valentino Rossi	141	−84
4	Andrea Dovizioso	99	−126
5	Jorge Lorenzo	97	−128
6	Aleix Espargaro	77	−148

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

15/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.495 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P9 to P4.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Cal Crutchlow (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2015Marc MarquezHonda
2014Marc MarquezHonda
2013Marc MarquezHonda
2012Daniel PedrosaHonda
2011Casey StonerHonda
2010Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2015	1/23	4%
2014	8/23	35%
2013	4/23	17%
2012	6/22	27%
2011	3/17	18%
2010	4/17	24%